Biggest Wild-Card Teams in 2022 College Football Season

College football has a love-hate relationship with expectations.

Throughout the offseason, both fans and media formulate their respective beliefs about programs. On the whole, the general CFB populous does a pretty decent job of it, too.

During the eight-year College Football Playoff era, 32 teams have appeared in the championship-deciding tournament. Within that group, 26 of those programs held a Top 10 preseason ranking, and 20 were in the Top 5. We typically can project the best of the best.

There are always a handful of teams that stand out as the most difficult to project, though. They're good, but are they championship-level good? One or two bad bounces seem like they could trigger a spiral the other way, too.

While the choices are subjective, the focus is on expected conference and national title contenders.

Cincinnati shattered the CFP's glass ceiling for Group of Five programs last season. However, BYU already had a blueprint as an independent thanks to 2018 Notre Dame.

And if BYU's opponents hold up their end of the bargain, the program could have a similar story in 2022.

ESPN's Bill Connelly noted only Bowling Green returns more production than BYU. During the last two campaigns, the Cougs have notched a 20-3 mark in the regular season, including a 5-0 clip against Pac-12 opponents last year.

Most importantly for an independent, the slate won't be easy.

BYU hosts Baylor and Arkansas, plays Notre Dame at a neutral site and travels to Oregon, Boise State and Stanford. Throw in reigning Mountain West champ Utah State, and the Cougars again have—on paper—a schedule no less difficult than a typical Pac-12 school.

Yes, the Cougs must emerge from that slate unscathed, but they've sat on the edge of national contention for two years now.

If you aren't a North Carolina State, ACC fan or general quarterback diehard, you might not even know Devin Leary.

Consider this a formal hello.

Last season, Leary completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 3,433 yards, 35 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He guided the Pack to a 9-3 record, and the program finished the season in the AP Top 25 for only the fourth time since 1994.

Leary is the headliner, but NC State should also have one of the ACC's top defenses. The unit surrendered just 19.7 points per game in 2021 and returns a healthy majority of those contributors. That combination, in addition to last year's record, will likely have the Wolfpack hovering around the preseason Top 10.

However, Clemson stands in the Wolfpack's way. And if NC State can't spring another upset—this time in October on the road—its upside will be quickly capped.

Let's do a rundown.

Baylor: The reigning champs are replacing just about everything besides the offensive and defensive lines. But, hey, if Dave Aranda can take a 2-7 team to 12-2, the Bears may compete again.

Oklahoma: Major changes in both staff and players following the exit of Lincoln Riley to USC. Very talented, but all of these new pieces have to come together perfectly.

Oklahoma State: While quarterback Spencer Sanders returns, the Pokes lost a bunch of key contributors. On the other hand, they were literally inches away from a possible spot in the CFP last season. Oklahoma State might not fall too far.

Texas: It's Texas. Lots of hype and plenty of talent. As always, will it lead to positive results this season?

If any of those programs surged into national contention, the reaction simply might be, "Hey, they actually put it all together." Then again, a four- or five-loss regular season wouldn't be surprising, either.

How are you feeling about Michigan?

After reaching the CFP in 2021, the Wolverines have meandered through an unsteady offseason. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald left for the NFL, and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis bolted to Miami following Jim Harbaugh's flirtation with the pros.

J.J. McCarthy's shoulder injury in the spring meant the quarterback competition with Cade McNamara couldn't start until now. The offensive line should be a strength, but run defense may be a serious issue.

Michigan travels only four times in 2022, and its schedule is generally favorable. However, two matchups—Iowa and Ohio State—will be played at venues that are notoriously difficult for U-M.

The Wolverines should be good, maybe even great. But they have a not-so-complicated path to a 9-3 record, too.

Michigan State showed in 2021 how a transfer-fueled roster can compete at a high level. New USC head coach Lincoln Riley is hoping for even more success.

But the Trojans have a ton of new pieces.

Michigan State plugged in a few players at key spots. USC, on the other hand, will probably have transfers accounting for one-third of its names on the two-deep depth chart.

Don't get us wrong, Riley upgraded the roster in a significant way. It sure doesn't hurt to bring along Caleb Williams, a sophomore who's already one of the best quarterbacks in the nation.

We can't know what to expect from USC, though. We have literally never watched this group of players in a competitive game.

USC is the wildest wild card of the bunch.

The most likely preseason Top 5 team on the list, Texas A&M has an awfully large question to answer.

So, uh, who's the starting quarterback?

Haynes King initially earned the job in 2021, but a leg injury ended his year almost immediately. His replacement, Zach Calzada, transferred out, while Max Johnson—who threw for 2,815 yards and 27 touchdowns to just six interceptions on a mediocre LSU team—headed to College Station. The Aggies also brought in 5-star recruit Conner Weigman.

The hope is that an upgrade at quarterback is the final championship piece for Texas A&M, which is a perfect example of just how difficult being a contender truly is. Last season, the Aggies stunned top-ranked and future national runner-up Alabama one week after falling at home to Mississippi State.

Jimbo Fisher and Co. understand how to beat the best. The trick is avoiding the other losses.