AL Wild Card Series 2022: Mariners vs. Blue Jays Storylines and Preview
The Seattle Mariners' first postseason series in 21 years takes place in Toronto against a Blue Jays team that shares the same aspirations of bringing its young core to the top of the baseball world.
American League Rookie of the Year front-runner Julio Rodriguez leads the Seattle lineup against a Toronto order laden with star power, including George Springer, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Toronto appears to have an edge on paper over Seattle's lineup, but the advantage could swing back in Seattle's favor when you talk about the pitching matchup.
Seattle finished the regular season with the eighth-best team ERA in the majors, while Toronto was in the middle of the pack in 15th.
Toronto's lineup led the majors in batting average and was tied with the Atlanta Braves for second in OPS. The Blue Jays finished inside the top 10 of most offensive categories.
Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray will try to silence the Toronto order in Games 1 and 2, but Seattle's first two starters may be more susceptible to making mistakes than Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman.
Julio Rodriguez vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The marquee for the Seattle-Toronto should feature Julio Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The two superstars have the potential to carry the sport for the next decade and they will be compared throughout the series whether they like it or not.
Rodriguez just finished one of the best rookie campaigns in history with 28 home runs, 75 RBI, 25 stolen bases, an .853 OPS and .284 batting average.
Rodriguez's rookie season was far better than Guerrero's debut season in 2019, but the Toronto slugger has grown into his role as the primary power source in the order.
Guerrero mashed 30 home runs for the second straight season and he was three RBI short of hitting the century mark in that category in consecutive years.
Guerrero went 1-for-7 with four strikeouts in his first postseason appearance against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay won both games in the 2020 Wild Card series.
The lackluster performance from two years ago should motivate the entire Blue Jays squad to perform better in front of their home crowd on Friday, Saturday and maybe Sunday.
Guerrero and his teammates face a tough task against Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray, but the Blue Jays may be able to find flaws in both pitchers to experience a two-game sweep of their own.
Will Seattle's Starters Hold Up Against Toronto Order
The Mariners should have some concerns about how well their rotation will hold up if the series goes three games.
Seattle's best chance to win is with Luis Castillo in Game 1. Castillo pitched into the sixth inning in nine of his 11 starts since coming over from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline. Castillo allowed more than three earned runs in three of those appearances.
After Castillo, the Mariners have some question marks in their rotation with Robbie Ray in Game 2 and either Marco Gonzales or Logan Gilbert in Game 3. George Kirby is also an option to start Game 3.
Gonzales, Ray and Gilbert all finished in the top 25 in batting average against. Gonzales was one of two qualifying pitchers to give up a .300 batting average to opponents. Toronto's Jose Berrios was the other hurler, which means Game 3, if the series gets there, could be a high-scoring affair.
Ray was tied for 10th in home runs allowed and he was a bit inconsistent in September. He gave up 16 earned runs over 33.1 innings. He also walked multiple batters in each of his last three starts.
Seattle needs the 2021 AL Cy Young Award version of Ray to show up in Game 2 to either clinch the series, or force Game 3.
Ray and Seattle's other starters could have trouble silencing one of the best offenses in the majors. One bad inning against Guerrero and Co. could be the difference-maker in the series. Seattle's pitchers are more prone to mistakes than Toronto's front end hurlers.
Do Regular Season Results Give Seattle a Chance?
Seattle won the regular-season series over Toronto by a 5-2 margin.
The Mariners swept the Blue Jays at home in July before it acquired Luis Castillo to bolster their rotation depth.
Toronto won two of the three games inside Rogers Centre, but it only managed nine runs in those victories.
The regular-season success against Toronto has to give the Mariners hope that they can at least force a Game 3 where anything could be possible without the top arms available.
Seattle held Toronto to five runs or fewer in six of the seven regular-season clashes. Toronto ranks in the top 10 in batting average, OPS and home runs at home and the crowd in Ontario could render the regular-season numbers useless.
The lack of postseason experience on Seattle's roster could also be a hindrance to the Mariners progressing into the next round to face the Houston Astros.
The key for Seattle will be to try and limit the damage of the Toronto order. The Mariners had the 11th-best road ERA in baseball, but they also gave up the 10th-most home runs away from Seattle.
If the series turns into a low-scoring affair, Seattle can replicate the same success it had against Toronto in the regular season, but the Blue Jays have the potential to rip open the series and use their power to move on to face Houston.
Statistics obtained from MLB.com.