MLB Playoff Picture 2022: Hot Takes and Top Storylines for October 9 Schedule
The San Diego Padres and New York Mets have the only Wild Card series that went the distance.
The Mets forced Game 3 with a Game 2 win on Saturday night behind Jacob deGrom.
San Diego took Game 1 after it roughed up Max Scherzer with a handful of home runs.
Despite all the great starting pitchers in the series, there have been 18 runs plated between the two sides.
San Diego scored all seven of its Game 1 runs in the 4.2 innings in which Scherzer was on the mound.
New York took two runs off Blake Snell in Game 2 before it erupted in the seventh inning against Adrian Morejon.
The only pitchers that will not be available for Sunday's Game 3 are the starters from the first two contests.
San Diego will throw Joe Musgrove against New York's Chris Bassitt to start, but they could be on short leashes if they struggle.
New York made the most peculiar move of the series so far, as it sent Edwin Diaz out to pitch the seventh inning of Game 2. Diaz's appearance lasted into the eighth, but he should still be fresh if the Mets need him to finish off the series.
The winner of Sunday's Game 3 faces a quick turnaround to Tuesday to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
Joe Musgrove Lasts Longer Than Chris Bassitt
Joe Musgrove enters Game 3 off a much better close to the regular season than Chris Bassitt.
Musgrove conceded one earned run on 15 hits over 22 innings in his last four appearances.
The San Diego right-hander had some trouble with walks in his previous three starts, but he got out of all of the jams he put himself in.
Bassitt gave up four earned runs and walked three batters in his last start against the Atlanta Braves last Sunday. Bassitt's poor outing helped Atlanta confirm its spot on top of the National League East.
Bassitt was also rocked for five earned runs by the Chicago Cubs at home on September 12. He gave up five earned runs over 3.2 innings in that start.
New York's Game 3 starter allowed nine earned runs on 12 hits in his two meetings with the Padres in the regular season, He did strike out 11 batters on July 23, so there is precedent for success against San Diego.
Musgrove conceded four earned runs on five hits in his July 24 start versus the Mets. He walked two batters and gave up a home run.
Musgrove's run concession has been smaller in the last month and he has been able to limit opponents to a small number of home runs.
He gave up 22 home runs over the entire regular season, but Musgrove only allowed one long ball in his last four starts.
Musgrove's damage limitation could help him stay on the mound longer than Bassitt, who also has to get over his disastrous outing against Atlanta in Game 3.
What Is New York's Edwin Diaz Plan?
Mets manager Buck Showalter called on Edwin Diaz earlier than expected in Game 2.
Diaz pitched a shutdown seventh inning that eventually set up the four-run bottom half of the frame that opened the contest up in the Mets' favor.
Showalter's plan to put Diaz in the highest leverage situation of Game 2 worked out. He threw just 28 pitches to get five outs in the seventh and eighth innings.
Diaz will be available for Game 3, but the length of his outing is up for debate. He could close in the ninth, or be used for multiple innings to shift the momentum fully in New York's favor.
Showalter used five other hurlers in relief of Scherzer and deGrom and none of them was on the mound for more than two innings. That should give the New York manager plenty of options in the latter innings.
Ideally, the Mets would save Diaz to put out his best effort in the ninth inning for a series-sealing save.
New York may have to call on Diaz in the eighth inning if one of the other relievers stumbles in a late-game situation.
How the Mets use Diaz could shift the balance of the game and it will either be praised, like it was after Game 2, or scrutinized with the end of the Mets season.
Bottom of Order Hitters May Be Game 3 Difference Makers
Some of the biggest hits in the series have come from the hitters in the bottom third of both orders.
Trent Grisham hit home runs off Scherzer and deGrom from the No. 8 hole in the San Diego lineup. Austin Nola and Ha-Seong Kim both have two hits in the series from the No. 7 and No. 9 spots.
New York's bottom-third production has come from Eduardo Escobar, who hit a home run in Game 1 to avoid the shutout and followed that up with two hits in Game 2.
The stars of each order will be under focus for every at-bat, but it may be the batters at the bottom of the lineup that make the difference with either big hits, or base knocks that set up the power hitters for large innings.
Escobar and Grisham are the top candidates to shine for their respective sides. New York needs more out of the catcher position and whichever outfielder hits in the bottom third with the backstop and Escobar.
Mark Canha went 0-for-4 in Game 1 and Darin Ruf was lifted for a pinch runner after he recorded an out and earned a walk from the No. 8 hole in Game 2.
The other key in the bottom half could be production out of the No. 6 slot. New York got two hits from Starling Marte and a hit out of Jeff McNeil in that spot, while Wil Myers and Brandon Drury combined to go 0-for-8 from the No. 6 hole for San Diego.