2022 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Predictions for Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodón & More
As Major League Baseball continues to navigate its 2022 postseason—the Cleveland Guardians, Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners advanced on Saturday—much of the baseball world is already focused on the looming offseason.
The upcoming free agent class is a strong one, with stars like Aaron Judge, Trea Turner and Willson Contreras set to hit the open market. The ability to opt-out will likely add more talent to the player pool as well.
Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón, Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts are among those who can opt out this offseason.
Where will this year's top players land in free agency? Let's make a few predictions based on the latest MLB rumors and buzz.
Aaron Judge
Judge is unquestionably the biggest name slated to reach free agency. The New York Yankees slugger had a historic season in 2022, finishing with an AL-record 62 home runs.
The epic run will only increase the market value of the talented 30-year-old.
ESPN's Kiley McDaniel recently polled 14 anonymous MLB executives about Judge's projected contract value. The predictions averaged out to 8.6 years and just below $320 million.
The general expectation is that Judge will return to New York on a massive multi-year deal, as ESPN's Buster Olney noted earlier this week. However, the potential for a bidding war is very real.
"I can tell you this, people around baseball are skeptical that he would leave the Yankees and that they would actually let him leave," Olney said on Get Up. "That said, there is going to be an opportunity for an inspired owner of another team—maybe it's the Giants—to jump in with a big number."
It will surprise no one if teams like the San Francisco Giants, New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers get in on the bidding—and really, any other franchise that isn't shy about spending in free agency.
The expectation here, however, is that Judge's power, profile and superstar status are too great for the Yankees to ignore. He's the face of a franchise that loves to be in the spotlight, and New York will pay to keep Judge around. The price? A bit more than the $35.5 million annually that Mike Trout got from the Los Angeles Angels.
Prediction: Judge signs an eight-year, $290 million deal with the Yankees
Carlos Rodón
The Giants may be keeping an eye on Judge in the coming weeks. They also have some decisions to make regarding Rodón. San Francisco expects the All-Star pitcher to opt out and hit free agency.
"Obviously we fully anticipate Carlos to opt out and that will create an opening on our pitching staff," Giants president Farhan Zaidi said, per The Athletic's Andrew Baggarly.
This doesn't necessarily mean that Rodón will depart in the offseason, though. According to Zaidi, Rodón does have an interest in returning on a higher salary.
"The feedback from Carlos and from [agent] Scott [Boras] is he enjoyed being here, he enjoyed pitching in our park, and I would say there's mutual interest," Zaidi said, per The Athletic's Alex Pavlovic.
However, plenty of teams will be interested in Rodón, who made the All-Star team in each of the past two seasons. If the Chicago Cubs are one of them, we could see a pairing there. According to ESPN Chicago's David Kaplan, Rodón is interested in the Cubs.
"Loved pitching in Chicago, knows that the Cubs are a team with some players coming out of the system," Kaplan said on his YouTube channel last month. "They need a top-of-the-rotation arm."
Rodón spent the first seven years of his career with the Chicago White Sox, and the 29-year-old may indeed welcome a Chicago homecoming. The Cubs are looking to get back into the playoff mix after this year's 74-win campaign. This is a logical pairing that would surprise no one.
Prediction: Rodón signs a four-year, $127 million deal with the Cubs
Xander Bogaerts
Bogaerts is another high-profile player likely to opt-out. However, the Boston Red Sox are already letting Bogaerts know that they want to retain him.
"The Red Sox have wasted little time getting to work on getting a new deal done with Bogaerts," Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal wrote. "The team, including principal owner John Henry and team chairman Tom Werner, has met with Bogaerts 'several times,' in the last week, a source said."
For the Red Sox, everything will likely come down to the financials. Bogaerts is a homegrown talent, the face of the franchise and one of the top shortstops in the game. He simply isn't getting paid what he's worth.
"In 2019, he signed a six-year, $120-million extension," The Athletic's Chad Jennings wrote. "At the time, he'd ranked 26th in the majors in fWAR the previous four seasons. In the four years since, he's ranked 11th, and his remaining three years, $60 million are clearly below market rate for such a player.
According to Jennings, Bogaerts does want to return to Boston, but on a more lucrative contract. The good news for the Red Sox is that the likely presence of Turner, Correa and Dansby Swanson on the market should keep Bogaerts' price point from getting out of hand.
Several teams will still eye Bogaerts, but he's not the only quality shortstop worth bidding on.
The expectation here is that Boston manages to work out a deal that is good for both sides.
Prediction: Bogaerts returns to Boston on a six-year, $185 million deal