UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Every now and then, we get a fight that feels almost too good to be true. The main event of UFC 280, which goes down this Saturday in the heat of Abu Dhabi, is just such a fight.

Headlining honours for the card will go to a lightweight fight between Charles Oliveira of Brazil and Islam Makhachev of Russia, with the UFC's vacant lightweight title on the line.

Oliveira (33-8), who holds the UFC records for most finishes and most submissions, is the former lightweight champion. He was stripped of the title when he missed weight for a May title defense against Justin Gaethje, but after winning that fight by choking his foe unconscious in Round 1, he was plunked right back into another title fight with Makhachev.

Makhachev (22-1) might be the toughest opponent Oliveira has faced to date, which is saying something, considering the former champion has been fighting the cream of the crop in two UFC weight classes for over a decade. The Russian will carry a 10-fight win streak into the Octagon in Abu Dhabi, and he is frequently—and justifiably—compared to his close friend and coach, ex-champ Khabib Nurmagomedov.

It's a clash between the UFC's most dangerous finisher and a Dagestani juggernaut who, much like his mentor Nurmagomedov, seems to be just about unbeatable.

Will Oliveira reclaim the title with yet another finish, or will the Makhachev train keep on rolling with a glimmering gold belt in tow?

Keep scrolling to see how these two world-class fighters match up on paper, and for our best guess as to how it all goes down.

Makhachev is similar to Khabib Nurmagomedov in many ways, but as their coaches and training partners have dutifully reminded us over the years, he is the sharper, more powerful striker of the two. In fact, there has seemingly been a sustained effort from those in their camp to paint Makhachev as Nurmagomedov with knockout striking. That may be true—his 57-second knockout of Gleison Tibau in 2018 is good evidence—but it's not really saying much, as Nurmagomedov was never a great striker.

One way or the other, Makhachev will need to make sure his striking is on point at UFC 280, as Oliveira is a sniper on the feet.

The Brazilian is extremely versatile, punishing his opponents with every strike allowed under the MMA rule set. He also has serious power, which has helped him win nine fights by knockout or TKO—including some pretty flashy stops of Michael Chandler and Jared Gordon. What really makes this matchup interesting, however, is Oliveira's proficiency at attacking down the center line with uppercuts and knees—weapons he could use to respond to Makhachev's takedown attempts, possibly with fight-ending consequences.

Another interesting wrinkle? Makhachev holds the current UFC record for strikes absorbed per minute.

It's definitely possible Makhachev will knock Oliveira out on the feet, but if power-punchers like Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje couldn't make it happen, it's unlikely. It's far more likely that he's the one to find himself in trouble on the feet in this fight, which suggests he'd be wise to drag the action to the mat...

Edge: Oliveira

As we covered above, Makhachev's apparent disadvantage in the striking phase of this fight suggests he'd be wise to take this fight with Oliveira to the ground. But it's not that simple.

Oliveira is the most dangerous submission fighter in UFC history—at least as far as the stats are concerned.

He has 16 submission victories in the Octagon—more than any fighter in history—and many of those wins have come against elite foes. Names like Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee and Jim Miller.

That's not surprising, given that the longtime Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt attempts a whopping 2.9 submissions per 15 minutes in the Octagon, compared to Makhachev's 1.2. He is almost always attacking when his fights are on the mat, and if he's not attacking, it's probably because he's preparing to.

Makhachev and his team seem pretty confident that his sambo skill will be enough to counter Oliveira's BJJ on the mat. In fact, Nurmagomedov recently went so far as to claim the Brazilian doesn't actually have a ground game because he's been submitted in the past.

“This is what Islam gonna do with Charles Oliveira: He gonna ride him like you ride your horse,” Nurmagomedov told Henry Cejudo in a video that's been making the rounds on social media. “A lot of people underestimate Islam. They think Charles Oliveira have ground game. He don’t have ground game. If you tap eight times in UFC, how can you say you have ground game?"

That's an interesting take from Nurmagomedov—particularly given that Oliveira has only tapped out three times ever. Nonetheless, until Makhachev starts putting up numbers like Oliveira, there's simply no debating which man has the edge in the submission department.

Edge: Oliveira

While Oliveira seems to have an edge in terms of striking and submissions, Makhachev is good enough in both of those areas that we could see some interesting stalemates in the cage.

That will not be the case when it comes to the wrestling. Makhachev, who grew up learning to take people down as a sambo student in Dagestan, has Oliveira beat in this department by a pretty significant margin.

The stats reflect the disparity in their skill.

Makhachev has a 65 percent takedown accuracy rate, compared to Oliveira's 40 percent. He also shoots for takedowns more often, attempting an average of 3.41 per 15 minutes of cage time, compared to Oliveira's 2.46. And finally, he also has the superior takedown defense, stopping 88 percent of attempts against him, while Oliveira stops only 57. Those are pretty substantial gaps, and they are probably going to matter in this fight.

Edge: Makhachev

Charles Oliveira's X-Factor: Championship Heart

Oliveira has previously been accused of giving up when fights aren't going his way, but he has disproved those claims pretty emphatically, most notably in his recent wins over Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, all of whom threatened him on the feet before meeting their ends on the mat.

Oliveira will need to call upon all of his proven, championship heart against Makhachev. In all likelihood, the Brazilian is going to be taken down and battered for at least some of this fight, and it's going to be extremely uncomfortable as it's happening. It's going to take a lot of guts to weather those moments and find the finish. Anything less, and Makhachev will swarm for a finish of his own.

Islam Makhachev's X-Factor: Plan B

If Makhachev can take Oliveira down, he has a clear path to victory. But if Oliveira is able to deter him with knees and uppercuts, submission attempts on the mat, or good old-fashioned takedown defense, things could get very interesting.

Makhachev needs a strong plan B in the event that his takedowns fail him, and probably a plan C, too. It's hard to say what those plans might look like, but banking everything on his glueing Oliveira to the canvas seems like a risky gamble—one that could cost him the belt.

This is an incredible matchup between the two best lightweights in the UFC, and it will probably come down to a few key questions.

Can Islam Makhachev take Charles Oliveira down and keep him there? If he can, will he be able to avoid Oliveira's submissions? And if he can't, is he a good enough striker to beat Oliveira on the feet?

Makhachev is the betting favorite in this fight for a reason, but he's going to have to be absolutely perfect to beat Oliveira, and we just don't see it happening. Our crystal ball shows Oliveira doing what he always does. Taking a bit of a beating early on—maybe more of a beating than usual—before ultimately finding a finish.

Our guess is he stings Makhachev on the feet and finishes him on the mat, just like he did against Gaethje. And new. Again.

Prediction: Charles Oliveira by submission, Rd. 3