Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings: Projections and Matchups to Love
It's crunch time for fantasy football managers. Week 16 means that season-long leagues are firmly in the postseason, and one mistake can end championship hopes.
The good news is that no NFL teams are on bye this week. The bad news is that there remains a lot of injury uncertainty around the league. The Philadelphia Eagles, for example, still don't know if they'll have star quarterback Jalen Hurts (shoulder) against the Dallas Cowboys.
"I do not put it past Jalen Hurts, I don't put anything past Jalen Hurts as far as his physical and mental toughness,'' Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said Tuesday, per ESPN's Tim McManus. "There's a chance he can play this week.''
Cold and snowy conditions are also likely to affect some games this week, so it may be wise to do a little forecast-checking before finalizing lineups.
With all of this in mind, let's dive into our latest point-per-reception (PPR) rankings and examine some of the best matchups for Week 16.
Quarterback
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
3. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
4. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
6. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
7. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
8. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
11. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Matchup to Love: Geno Smith at Kansas City Chiefs
The top six quarterbacks on our rankings have become weekly must-starts in 2022 due to their talent and their supporting casts. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith has been fantastic more often than not, but he isn't quite in the same category.
However, this is shaping up to be a tremendous matchup for Smith, and it comes just in time for the playoffs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have started to show cracks in recent weeks. Last week, Houston Texans quarterback Davis Mills threw for just 121 yards, but he did toss a pair of touchdowns. The Chiefs have now surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2022.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, may be in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City as they continue fighting for an NFC wild-card spot. Expect Seattle to lean heavily on Smith, who has legitimate top-five potential this week.
Stat Projection: 327 passing yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 23 rushing yards
Running Back
1. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
2. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
3. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
4. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
5. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
6. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
7. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
8. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
9. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
10. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
11. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
12. Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs
13. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
14. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
15. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
16. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
17. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
18. Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
19. Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
20. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Matchup to Love: Najee Harris vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris has been very boom-or-bust this season. He's given up a lot of the third-down work to rookie Jaylen Warren and is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
However, Harris has started to come alive in recent weeks, logging five rushing touchdowns in his last five games. He rumbled for 86 yards and a score against the Carolina Panthers last week and has a strong matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders coming to town.
Las Vegas has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2022.
Kenny Pickett will be back in the lineup for the Steelers this week, but we can still expect Pittsburgh to attack the Raiders on the ground. Last week, the New England Patriots used that approach and racked up 206 rushing yards in Las Vegas.
Managers who drafted Harris early may be disappointed with how things have unfolded thus far. However, they should be happy to have him here in Week 16.
Stat Projection: 98 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 1 TD
Wide Receiver
1. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
2. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
3. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
4. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
5. Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
7. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
8. Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
9. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
10. A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
11. Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
12. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
13. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
14. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
16. Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
17. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
18. Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
19. Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
20. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs
Matchup to Love: Garrett Wilson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Like the Seahawks and Steelers, the New York Jets are trying to stay in the playoff race with three weeks to go. They won't have quarterback Mike White on Thursday, so second-year man Zach Wilson will get the start against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Wilson doesn't bring a lot of consistency or rhythm to the Jets offense, but he does hit the occasional big play. This will be a factor on Thursday, especially for rookie receiver Garrett Wilson.
The Ohio State product had just four catches against the Detroit Lions last week, but he compiled 98 yards. He could have an even bigger day in a possible shootout with Trevor Lawrence and the surging Jags.
Jacksonville is fresh off a comeback win over the Dallas Cowboys and will find ways to threaten New York's stout defense. Expect Zach Wilson to target Garrett Wilson often against a Jags defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Stat Projection: 5 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD
Tight End
1. Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
2. Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
3. George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
4. T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
5. Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
6. Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
7. David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
8. Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
10. Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
11. Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
12. Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Matchup to Love: Travis Kelce vs. Seattle Seahawks
Look, if you have Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce on your roster, you're not sitting him this week. However, it's worth noting just how good this matchup is for the Kelce managers—and those in two-flex-no-TE leagues or those playing daily fantasy sports should take note.
Kelce is poised to go off in Week 16 for a few reasons. For one, the Seahawks are likely to keep pace with Kansas City on the scoreboard. This should mean plenty of passing for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kelce is Kansas City's de facto No. 1 receiver.
Secondly, Seattle has struggled mightily to contain opposing tight ends. Only the Arizona Cardinals have surrendered more fantasy points to the position this season.
Lastly, the Chiefs are still vying for the AFC's No. 1 seed. After ho-hum wins over the Denver Broncos and Texans, they should be looking to make a statement against Seattle.
Expect Kelce to come up big while giving Kansas City—and many fantasy managers—a win this week.
Stat Projections: 6 receptions, 117 yards, 2 TDs
*Fantasy scoring information via FantasyPros