College Football Picks for Every Game: CFB Playoff and New Year's Six
We're about to reach the biggest games in college football's bowl season. From Dec. 30 through Jan. 2, the New Year's Six bowl games—including the College Football Playoff semifinals—will be played.
TCU and Michigan will face off in the first semifinal on Dec. 31, as both teams will attempt to play in their first national title game. Georgia vs. Ohio State will follow that game up as the second semifinal of the night.
But that's not all. On Dec. 30, the Orange Bowl between Tennessee and Clemson kicks off. Elsewhere throughout the week, Alabama will play Kansas State in the Sugar Bowl, we'll have a USC-Tulane Cotton Bowl, and Penn State will play Utah in the Granddaddy of Them All out in Pasadena, California.
Let's run through predictions for the playoff semfinal games and rest of the New Year's Six bowl games.
Dec. 30: Orange Bowl
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Tennessee
When: 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Clemson -5.5
Clemson and Tennessee will meet in the Orange Bowl, and it should be a great matchup.
While a playoff berth would have been nice for both of these teams, an Orange Bowl trophy won't be a bad consolation prize. The Vols are vying for their first 11-win season since 2001, while the Tigers are aiming for their their first non-CFP New Year's Six bowl game win. (The Tigers have made it into the CFP semifinals every year except the past two, dating back to 2015.)
The Vols led the nation with 47.3 points and 538.1 yards per game, but they'll be without some of their biggest playmakers in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback Hendon Hooker tore his ACL in mid-November, and Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt is sitting out to prepare for the NFL. Receiver Cedric Tillman is doing the same.
Still, backup quarterback Joe Milton III, who has thrown for 720 yards and seven touchdowns with no interceptions this season, should be able to score points. He'll have weapons like starting running back Jaylen Wright and receivers Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton around him.
Meanwhile, Clemson has officially made a quarterback change, as two-year starter DJ Uiagalelei is transferring to Oregon State. In the ACC Championship Game, the Tigers benched Uiagalalei for Cade Klubnik, who threw for 279 yards and a touchdown and ran for a score as well.
However, Klubnik will be missing some key players on offense. Running back Kobe Pace and receiver E.J. Williams have entered the transfer portal, while receiver Beaux Collins is out with a shoulder injury.
This should be a great game, but I like Clemson in this one. Dabo Swinney's experience coaching big games should give the Tigers an edge.
Prediction: Clemson 35, Tennessee 32
Dec. 31 Games
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State
When: Noon (ESPN)
Line: Alabama -6.5
Alabama won't be playing for a national championship this season thanks to its two losses to Tennessee and LSU. Instead, the Tide will play in non-CFP New Year's Six bowl for the first time since 2019.
Meanwhile, Kansas State was a pleasant surprise in the Big 12 this season. The Wildcats won their last three games of the regular season to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game. K-State then handed TCU its first loss of the season, winning 31-28 in overtime.
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, two of Alabama's biggest stars will suit up and play despite being likely first-round picks in the 2023 NFL draft. Heisman finalist Bryce Young, who has thrown for 3,007 yards, 27 touchdowns and five interceptions, will play in what's expected to be his last game for the Tide. So will star linebacker Will Anderson Jr., who has 51 total tackles and leads the team with 10 sacks.
Kansas State quarterback Will Howard, who has filled in ever since starting quarterback Adrian Martinez suffered a lower-body injury against Baylor on Nov. 12, has performed well in Martinez's absence. He enters this game with 1,423 yards, 15 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.
Wildcats head coach Chris Klieman said Martinez might play in the Sugar Bowl, so it'll be interesting to see what K-State's quarterback situation looks like.
Wildcat running back Deuce Vaughn has also been sensational all season. He ranks second in the Big 12 in rushing yards, with 1,425 and eight touchdowns. He'll have to go up against a run defense that allows 125.33 yards on the ground per game.
Kansas State will have its hands full against Young and Anderson, who will want to play well in what's widely presumed to be their last game for Alabama. Hopefully K-State can keep this one close enough to make it entertaining.
Prediction: Alabama 40, Kansas State 24
Fiesta Bowl semifinal: Michigan vs. TCU
When: 4 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Michigan -7.5
In the first semifinal game of the day, Michigan and TCU will face off with a chance to play in their first-ever national title games.
Michigan finished the regular season undefeated and beat rival Ohio State for a second consecutive season to win the Big Ten again. TCU made it to the Big 12 title game undefeated, and although it lost in overtime to K-State, that loss wasn't enough to keep it out of the playoff.
Michigan will be the best team TCU has faced all season long. The Wolverines averaged the seventh-most points per game (40.1) and are tied for fourth in scoring defense (13.4 points per game allowed). Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy enters this game with 2,376 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
The Wolverines will have to rely once again on running back Donovan Edwards, who rushed for a combined 401 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games against OSU and Purdue. Edwards was called into action after starting tailback Blake Corum suffered a knee injury that required season-ending surgery late in the year.
TCU ranks 57th nationally in scoring defense, which means the Horned Frogs will likely need a big outing on offense. The key to that will be quarterback Max Duggan, who comes into this game with 3,726 yards of total offense along with 36 total touchdowns.
Michigan is strong in all three phases of the game, which could spell an end to TCU's national title dreams. But maybe the Horned Frogs can use the loss to Kansas State as motivation.
Prediction: Michigan 38, TCU 30
Peach Bowl semifinal: Georgia vs. Ohio State
When: 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Georgia -6.5
Georgia looks primed to repeat as national champions. The Dawgs finished the regular season 13-0 and dominated almost every team on their schedule.
Although Georgia lost eight starters on defense from last season, the Dawgs enter this game ranked second in scoring defense, giving up only 12.8 points per game. Georgia also has the nation's No. 1 rushing defense.
Quarterback Stetson Bennett has the Georgia offense humming. The Dawgs are averaging 39.2 points per game and rank first nationwide in red-zone conversions (97.18 percent). However, Georgia is dealing with some injury concerns on offense.
Leading receiver Ladd McConkey left the SEC Championship Game against LSU with a knee injury. He reportedly has been dealing with knee soreness all season, but he's back practicing with the Dawgs leading up to the game. Meanwhile, offensive tackle Warren McClendon suffered a sprained MCL against LSU.
Even if McConkey isn't fully healthy, Bennett has plenty of weapons like tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington. Dawgs running back Kenny McIntosh also enters this game with 709 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Like Georgia, Ohio State blew out most teams it faced. The Buckeyes had seven wins by 29-plus points, and their four other wins came by 11 to 14 points (Notre Dame, Penn State, Northwestern, Maryland). Michigan beating Ohio State like it did was a shock, but it wasn't enough to knock the Buckeyes out of the playoff entirely.
To shock the world and upset Georgia, Ohio State might need a big game from its offense.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud, a Heisman finalist, enters this game with 3,340 passing yards, 37 touchdowns with six interceptions. Stroud threw two picks against Michigan, but he can't afford to give this Georgia offense any short fields. Georgia's defense has 10 interceptions so far this season.
Ohio State ranks 11th in total defense, so this will be one of the better units Georgia's offense will have faced this season. Stopping Bennett and the talented Dawgs receiving corps will be key for Ohio State to pull off the upset.
Prediction: Georgia 34, Ohio State 28
Jan. 2 Games
Cotton Bowl: Tulane vs. USC
When: 1 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: USC -2
Tulane is having an incredible season, reaching 11 wins for the first time since 1998. The Green Wave beat UCF in the AAC Championship Game and made the playoff for the first time in school history.
Although USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game, first-year head coach Lincoln Riley still had a great season. This was the Trojans' first 11-win campaign since 2017, so the future is bright in Los Angeles.
This will be a great matchup between two good offenses. The Trojans rank third nationally in scoring offense (41.1 points per game), while Tulane ranks 21st (35.2 points per game).
This should be a pretty good quarterback battle, too. Heisman winner Caleb Williams enters this game with 4,075 yards, 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions along with 372 yards and 10 scores on the ground. He injured his hamstring against Utah, but he's expected to start. Tulane's Michael Pratt has 2,775 yards and 25 touchdowns with five interceptions and another 10 touchdowns on the ground.
Tulane's defense should have an edge here, too. The Green Wave rank 35th in total defense, whereas USC checks in at 103rd.
I would love to see Tulane pull off the upset here, but I'm not sure if I can, especially if Williams is 100 percent healthy.
Prediction: USC 42, Tulane 38
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Utah
When: 5 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Utah -2.5
Utah is going back to the Rose Bowl for a second consecutive season after knocking off USC twice this year to win the Pac-12. It's an impressive feat for head coach Kyle Whittingham, who has successfully led the Utes to double-digit wins for a second consecutive season.
Penn State lost to Ohio State and Michigan this season, but it's back at the Rose Bowl for the first time since 2016. If the Nittany Lions can beat Utah, it'll be their first 11-win season since 2019.
Both of these teams enter this matchup with top-20 defenses, but both of their offenses have been playing well late in the season. Penn State's offense averaged 41.3 points per game in November, while Utah put up 63 and 47 points in its last two games, respectively.
Although the Utes' fell short in last year's Rose Bowl to Ohio State, being on this big of a stage gives the Utes an edge. I like Utah in a tight one.
Prediction: Utah 28, Penn State 24
Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (CA-ONT), or calling 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY/CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.