UFC 284: Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski Head-to-Toe Breakdown

UFC 284, the promotion's second pay-per-view of 2023, is still well over a week away, but it definitely looks like it will be worth the wait.

The Feb. 11 card, which will be set in Perth, Australia, will be topped by a blockbuster champion-versus-champion showdown, as featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski climbs up to lightweight to challenge Islam Makhachev in a bid for a second title.

It's always a big deal when two active champions collide in the Octagon, but this is a particularly special case, as Australia's Volkanovski (25-1) is the No. 1-ranked fighter on every credible pound-for-pound list, and Makhachev (23-1) is generally considered a top-10 or even top-5 fighter—the UFC has him at No. 3.

As for the outcome, the oddsmakers favor Makhachev to dash Volkanovski's dreams, probably because the Russian will be the much larger fighter in the Octagon. That being said, there are plenty of advantages in Volkanovski's corner too, most notably one of the best-rounded skillsets in the sport today. This is anybody's fight.

Keep scrolling to see how the two champions match up and for our best shot at a prediction.

Alexander Volkanovski isn't the flashiest striker in the game. He's not out there scoring highlight-reel knockouts like Yair Rodríguez or a prime Anderson Silva. But don't let that fool you. He has some of the most effective striking out there, and some solid firepower to back it up. He wouldn't be the sport's pound-for-pound king if he didn't.

The numbers reflect Volkanovski's approach to striking. He lands just shy of seven significant strikes per minute on average, which works out to 57 percent of the significant strikes he throws. In other words, he throws a lot, and he lands a lot. That doesn't always lead to a stoppage, but it certainly can, as the Australian proved against the likes of "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung and Chad Mendes. When it doesn't lead to a stoppage, it typically leads to a methodical and oftentimes brutal decision win, like the ones he picked up against Brian Ortega and in his most recent fight with Max Holloway.

Makhachev is a solid striker, too. We are often reminded that he is a superior striker to his mentor, former pound-for-pound king Khabib Nurmagomedov, and that statement is probably true, but it betrays two facts. The first is that Nurmagomedov was never a very good striker, and the second is that, much like Nurmagomedov, Makhachev's striking success is often a product of his takedown threat. His opponents are so worried about getting taken down that their own striking software malfunctions.

Again, he is a good striker. Who could forget the punch that set up his title-winning submission win over Charles Oliveira last year? But when his striking skill is compared to Volkanovski's, he's a step behind.

Edge: Volkanovski

Everything thing you need to know about Islam Makhachev's submission skill can be learned by watching his last fight, which saw him tap Charles Oliveira with a second-round arm-triangle choke to win the lightweight title. It's not just that he won the belt by submission, it's who he beat to do it. Oliveira, a decorated BJJ blackbelt, is the most prolific submission finisher in UFC history.

Then again, it's not like Makhachev's submission chops were a secret before that. The sambo specialist had already won 10 fights by sub against the likes of Dan Hooker, Thiago Moises and Drew Dober. We knew he was good. What's clear now is he might be the most dangerous submission threat in the weight class.

Volkanovski has decent submissions too, but we don't see much of that side of his game. To date, he has won just three of his 25 victories in that fashion.

We do know, of course, that he has some absolutely ridiculous submission defense. He proved that in his title defense against Brian Ortega, and it's part of what makes this fight so interesting. But the advantage has to go the Russian.

Edge: Makhachev

It's not just Islam Makhachev's submissions that make him scary. It's the fact that he has the wrestling game to set his submissions up. With a long history on the sambo mats, he can take pretty much anybody down—just like his mentor Khabib Nurmagomedov and so many other fighters from their native Dagestan.

The Russian finishes an average of 3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and completes attempts at a rate of 65.9 percent—the 10th-best takedown accuracy rate in UFC history. He has landed at least three takedowns in four of his past 10 fights, and at least one takedown in nine of them. The truly impressive part is that he has finished six of those 10 fights by submission or TKO on the mat, meaning that once he is able to take his foes down, he has a very good chance of finishing them.

That will not be so easy against Volkanovski. As we covered on the previous slide, the Aussie has a solid submission defense game, but he also has great takedown defense. He has stopped 73 percent of takedowns against him in the UFC, but what makes that stat really interesting is that every takedown he surrendered came in his fight with Brian Ortega, when he was grounded three times. Nobody but the American BJJ black belt has gotten the Aussie to the mat in the Octagon.

Still, we've got to give the wrestling edge to Makhachev. The numbers speak for themselves, and they don't even factor in the physical advantages he will have in the Octagon.

Edge: Makhachev

Volkanovski's X-Factor: Championship Mettle

There is no denying that Islam Makhachev is one of the best fighters in the world, but it's hard to ignore the schedule of competition he's faced. Outside of Charles Oliveira, he has never really faced a world-class fighter at the top of their game. His wins over Bobby Green and Dan Hooker were solid, and his wins over Drew Dober and Arman Tsarukyan look excellent in hindsight, but until Oliveira, he wasn't fighting the cream of the crop. But Volkanovski has. Outside of his first few fights in the UFC, the Australian has spent the bulk of his time in Octagon fighting the best competition available, from Chad Mendes, to José Aldo, to Max Holloway. He has won five title fights, and four of those came after the full five rounds. He has heaps of experience at the highest level of the sport. This is his chance to prove that all that experience matters and to catch Makhachev off guard with things he has not yet seen.

Makhachev's X-Factor: Fight Like a Lightweight

Alexander Volkanovski has fought at lightweight before, but he is certainly a natural featherweight and could potentially even slim down to bantamweight if he really wanted. Makhachev, meanwhile, is a hulk of a lightweight who could conceivably compete at welterweight. The Russian is going to be way bigger than the Aussie, and he will probably be stronger too, despite his rival's immense physical tools. He needs to lean on those advantages. He needs to bully Volkanovski against the cage and suffocate him on the mat, and in the process, take away all the weapons that have made the Australian the king—his leg kicks, his boxing, his volume, his takedowns.

This is a difficult fight to predict, which is not at all surprising considering we're talking about two of the best fighters in the world today. Both men have the tools to win, and neither should be any less esteemed in defeat.

Of course, we promised you a prediction, so here it is.

Volkanovski is probably a better all-around fighter than Makhachev. He certainly has a better resume. That being said, in this fight where he will be at such a stark physical disadvantage, his slight technical advantages are not likely to matter as much.

Compare it to Israel Adesanya vs. Jan Blachowicz, Canelo Álvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol, whatever. But this will be a classic example of a very skilled fighter losing to another very skilled but slightly bigger and stronger fighter. Volkanovski will survive five rounds, and he'll have his moments in that span, but there won't be enough of them.

Prediction: Makhachev by unanimous decision