Biggest Potential Busts of the 2022-23 MLB Free-Agency Class

Get ready for an MLB season with some familiar faces in new places.

There was a ton of movement among star players this offseason, whether it be free-agent signings or trades to change the complexion of the MLB landscape.

Exciting as it may be, not all of these deals are going to work out. Conversely, moves you're probably skeptical about now are going to look a lot better than what you anticipate.

That's part of the beauty of the offseason: having fun with prognostications that won't matter once the games are being played.

In this exercise, we look at the biggest potential busts of this free-agency class, with consideration to player expectation, recent performance and size of the deals they signed.

As good as Josh Bell is, it should be concerning that he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as he used to.

Bell's hard hit percentage dipped from 52 percent in 2021, which put him in the top seven percent of baseball, to 40.8 percent in 2022, per Baseball Savant. His exit velocity also dropped from 92.5 mph in 2021, which put him in the top 8 percent of baseball, to 88.9 mph last season.

While he won the Silver Slugger Award in 2022, Bell has yet to replicate power numbers shown from his lone All-Star season in 2019.

Bell's first- and second-half splits last year are also worth considering. Before the All-Star break, Bell slashed .311/.390/.504. But afterward, he slashed just .194/.317/.289, dropping his OPS by an astounding 288 points.

It was a similar story in that 2019 season, when Bell was an All-Star and his OPS dropped 244 points from the first half of the year to the second.

Bell's deal with Cleveland is for two years, $33 million, so it's not devastating for the Guardians if this goes south.

There is immense pressure on Contreras taking over for the legendary Yadier Molina in St. Louis. It's good for the Cardinals to replace Molina with the best available catcher on the free-agent market.

Revisionist history will not fly here if the move ultimately flops. And to be clear, Contreras is a better hitter who should add some pop to the Cardinals' lineup.

But he's not nearly as good defensively as his predecessor, and the Cardinals put a premium on defense. Since 2019, St. Louis leads baseball in defensive runs saved and is second only behind the Astros in outs above average and runs prevented in that time.

Molina, even at age 40 and on the verge of retirement, had nine defensive runs saved last season. Meanwhile, Contreras was at -1 defensive runs saved.

It's possible that being one of the best hitting catchers in the game makes up for what he lacks defensively, but there is certainly bust potential considering Contreras' price tag and the shoes he's filling.

The biggest knock on Rodón, who just signed a six-year, $162 million contract on the strength of his past two All-Star seasons, has been an inability to stay healthy.

Rodón, 30, underwent Tommy John surgery after just seven starts in 2019. He pitched in only four games in 2020 before more shoulder problems in 2021, his first All-Star season when he started 24 games.

Last season, his only with the San Francisco Giants, Rodón was healthy enough to pitch a career-high 178 innings, but he had to power down his fastball to get there. Perhaps this is the key to keeping Rodón healthy, but it also raises concerns about durability.

The Yankees' rotation was already dealt a blow with last season's trade acquisition Frankie Montas needing shoulder surgery, which is expected to keep him out until late in the year.

Rodón's health, perhaps more than any other player, will be worth monitoring for the entire season.

As great of a signing as this appears to be for San Diego, Bogaerts' waning power numbers last year cannot be ignored.

An .833 OPS and batting .307 may not seem like much of a decline, but the proof is in the power numbers. Last season, Bogaerts posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2017. It was also his lowest hard hit percentage since then, aside from the COVID-19 pandemic shortened 2020 season.

For context, Bogaerts played through shoulder and wrist pain in 2022, which likely caused the production dip after the first 38 games when he was slashing .326/.388/.465 with eight doubles and four home runs.

The Padres clearly do not believe they signed a declining player, but it is still worth your attention.

Bogaerts played the best defense of his decade-long career in 2022. But defense had historically been the hole in his game, and it's possible, if not likely, he could be moved from shortstop early into his 11-year, $280 million deal.

There isn't much of a comparison for what we just witnessed Justin Verlander accomplish. To win the Cy Young Award coming off Tommy John surgery at age 39 is truly remarkable.

That's how the Mets ended up paying $43.3 million a year for a 40-year-old pitcher while already doing the same with 38-year-old Max Scherzer—Verlander's former teammate in their younger days with the Tigers.

But let's recap all of that. Verlander is a 40-year-old pitcher, now two seasons removed from Tommy John recovery and with the wear and tear of a Cy Young and World Series winning run, making over $43 million.

Only because it's Verlander is it assumed this is a good idea, which is a credit to him. But at that age, New York has to be concerned with how long his body will hold up and allow him to pitch at the level that calls for such a salary.

Verlander and Scherzer arguably make up the best 1-2 punch in any rotation across baseball, but health has to be a major question mark.

Going into this offseason, there was a case to be made that Turner was the best among another star-studded free-agent shortstop class.

This was an area the Phillies needed to upgrade, and Turner's desire to return to the East Coast played in their favor, leading to an 11-year, $300 million contract.

The Phillies are better for it, but there's valid cause for some trepidation. Keep in mind Turner's most redeeming quality is his speed, which he cannot hold on to forever.

Turner turns 30 on June 30. He's reached an age when speed typically declines. If that happens with Turner, it certainly takes away some of his appeal.

Add this to the fact Turner's power has diminished in recent years and you can see a path to this contract not living up to the hype. He's been better at second base than at shortstop, and teams typically don't pay $300 million for second basemen.

Like with Verlander, attaching the term "bust" to one of the game's best pitchers ever feels a bit silly, no matter the context.

But his place on this list has nothing to do with ability, or doubt about his stuff. With deGrom, it all comes back to health.

If he stays healthy, the Rangers have a chance to take an enormous step in their development, which is great for them considering all of the money spent in the past two offseasons.

"If" is the operative word here. What if he doesn't?

That's a reasonable question to ask considering his elbow troubles in 2021 and the shoulder problems from last year.

It's also worth mentioning that deGrom saw his fastball velocity fade down the stretch of last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over his last four regular-season starts.

Spring training just started, and deGrom is already experiencing tightness in his left side after his most recent bullpen session, causing the team to hold him back from workouts, per the New York Post's Brian Wacker.

He's not as old as Verlander, but at age 34 with a recent injury history, $185 million over five years is a risky investment.

Aside from the fact it's unlikely Judge replicates the historic season he had in 2022, injuries have to be a concern for someone his size at his age.

Judge turns 31 at the end of April in the first season of a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to the Yankees. At 6'7" and 282 pounds, you have to anticipate his body breaking down before those nine years are up.

We're obviously wishing Judge a clean bill of health for eternity, but this is the reality when you play so many games at that size.

He's one of the best right fielders in baseball and showed this past season he can be excellent in center field as well. But for how long?

It would not be surprising to see Judge exclusively as a designated hitter in a few years.

In just three years, Judge's sprint speed slipped from the 80th percentile to the 50th percentile, and you don't get faster and more athletic as you get older.

All advanced stats are courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.