Daytona 500 Starting Lineup: Predictions and Odds Ahead of 2023 Duels
Alex Bowman will lead the 42-car field to the green flag in Sunday's Daytona 500, the opening race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. Nobody should be surprised. The 29-year-old driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has started on the front row for the Great American Race every year since joining Hendrick Motorsports full-time in 2018.
Over the previous five years, Bowman started in the pole position for the Daytona 500 twice (2018 and 2021) and on the outside pole three times (2019, 2020 and 2022). On Wednesday night, he captured his third pole at the event by recording a lap time of 49.536 seconds in qualifying.
When Bowman started second in last year's Daytona 500, Hendrick teammate Kyle Larson was on the pole. This year, Bowman and Larson will again begin on the front row, as Larson posted the second-fastest lap time in qualifying (49.708 seconds).
The rest of the starting order will be determined on Thursday night, when the Bluegreen Vacation Duels take place at Daytona International Speedway. The pair of 60-lap, 150-mile races will set Rows 2-21 for Sunday's race.
With this year's Daytona 500 drawing closer, here's a look at the latest odds for the event, followed by predictions for the upcoming duel races.
Latest Odds to Win Daytona 500
Kyle Larson: +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)
Ryan Blaney: +1200
Denny Hamlin: +1200
Chase Elliott: +1200
Kyle Busch: +1400
Joey Logano: +1400
William Byron: +1600
Ross Chastain: +1600
Bubba Wallace: +1800
Brad Keselowski: +1800
Tyler Reddick: +2000
Austin Cindric: +2000
Alex Bowman: +2000
Kevin Harvick: +2500
Christopher Bell: +2500
Austin Dillon: +2500
Wallace Will Race to Victory in Duel 1
Over his first five full Cup Series seasons, Bubba Wallace has emerged as a top contender at superspeedway races. The 29-year-old thrives on the longest tracks on the circuit, especially Daytona International Speedway.
Wallace owns a pair of second-place finishes in the Daytona 500, as he was the runner-up in both 2018 and 2022. He's also ended up in the top 15 in nine of the 11 points races in which he's competed in at the track.
However, Wallace has never made it to Victory Lane at Daytona, not even in an exhibition event or duel race. That could change Thursday night.
In this year's first duel, Wallace is set to start sixth after posting the 11th-fastest time in Wednesday's qualifying session. He completed a lap in 49.997 seconds, an early sign that he may be poised for a strong opening week to the 2023 season.
At the end of last year, Wallace was more consistently stringing together strong performances. He had four top-10 finishes in his final nine races (including a victory at Kansas Speedway), which is momentum that he could carry over into the beginning of this season.
It helps that Wallace gets to open the 2023 campaign at one of his best tracks. And it's becoming an expectation that he'll have a strong showing when the Cup Series comes to Daytona.
Wallace is overdue for a trip to Daytona's Victory Lane. Expect him to finally make it there on Thursday, when he'll capture the No. 3 starting position for Sunday's race by notching his first duel victory.
Elliott Will Continue Hendrick's Momentum with Duel 2 Victory
Hendrick Motorsports had a dominant performance in Wednesday night's Daytona 500 qualifying session. Not only did Bowman and Larson post the two fastest lap times, but William Byron ranked third (49.799 seconds) and Chase Elliott was 14th (50.033).
Since 2015, a Hendrick driver has started first in the Great American Race in eight of nine years. Jeff Gordon (2015), Elliott (2016 and 2017), Bowman (2018, 2021 and 2023), Byron (2019) and Larson (2022) have all notched Daytona 500 poles in recent years.
But that hasn't translated to trips to Victory Lane. There hasn't been a Hendrick Motorsports driver to win the Daytona 500 since Dale Earnhardt Jr. raced to victory in 2014.
Hendrick has had some strong performances in the Bluegreen Vacations Duels, though. Elliott (2017 and 2018) and Byron (2020) are among the more recent winners of a qualifying race for the event.
It's clear that Hendrick Motorsports has some fast cars at Daytona this week. And it wouldn't be surprising if at least one wins a duel race on Thursday. Maybe the team will even end its Daytona 500 drought with a victory from one of its drivers on Sunday.
Bowman and Larson don't have much incentive to win a duel race, considering their starting spots on the front row are locked in. So the prediction here is that Elliott will notch his third career victory in a duel race (and first since 2018) to secure the No. 4 starting spot in this year's Daytona 500.
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