Predicting the Best Men's CBB Teams That'll Crash Out of March Madness Field
The bubble is a precarious place to sit in mid-February, mere weeks outside of the start of the men's NCAA tournament.
Nuance is valuable since a few programs might usually not even be mentioned in the March Madness discussion this late in the season. But there are also tournament regulars that are at risk of leaving the mix.
Every year, the unfortunate reality is some teams situated on the right side of the bubble won't remain there. Bad losses, brutal schedules and poor metrics could all contribute to a disappointing fall.
The projected seed reflects the Feb. 19 update on Bracket Matrix.
Missouri Tigers
Projected Seed: 8
The boldest prediction is first. Thanks a lot, alphabet.
Nevertheless, the SEC squad is beginning to trend in the wrong direction after a respectable 19-6 start. Missouri has fallen to Auburn and Texas A&M in its last two games, trimming the team's margin for error considerably.
The important point, as of today, is Missouri has avoided a bad loss and notched a 15-0 mark against Quadrants 2, 3 and 4. But three of the Tigers' last four regular-season games—at Georgia, at LSU and home against Ole Miss—all threaten to put a major blemish on the resume.
Given that five of Missouri's eight total losses have come on the road against SEC opponents, the late-season slate is cause for hesitation.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Projected Seed: 9
Nevada has a similar situation to Missouri, owning a 20-7 record with unreliable performance away from home.
While the competition level has been a factor, the Wolf Pack have dropped four of their last Mountain West five contests on the road. Falling to Fresno State or Wyoming could be crushing because either one would be firmly in Quadrant 3 territory.
Nevada's metrics are solid—especially its KPI (17) and SOR (32)—but that perception can change rapidly with a bad loss.
For good measure, neither home contest with San Jose State or UNLV, which already beat Nevada once, will do anything of value. The remaining slate is only filled with potential landmines.
Texas A&M Aggies
Projected Seed: 10
On the other hand, Texas A&M is surging.
Following a 6-5 start, the Aggies have ripped off a 14-2 spurt that includes a current five-game winning streak. But they are approaching a gauntlet to close the regular season.
Home clashes with Top 10 teams Tennessee and Alabama bookend trips to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. If the Aggies fall to UT and Bama, that would be the expected result. Add in a third loss, and Texas A&M's positive vibes will quickly turn into a whole lot of nerves.
Texas A&M has some quality road victories to bolster the resume. Still, a couple of Quad 4 losses to Murray State and Wofford will haunt the Aggies to the finish if they don't upset Tennessee or Alabama late.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Projected Seed: 10
On paper, West Virginia is the prototypical dangerous veteran team. Six seniors headline the rotation for Bob Huggins' program, which has remained a pesky squad in Morgantown all season.
However, the Mountaineers have been slipping for a while.
Along with a five-game skid to begin the Big 12 season, WVU has also slipped in three straight to Texas, Baylor and Texas Tech. And the road is only about to get tougher for the 'Eers.
West Virginia closes the campaign with likely NCAA tourney team Oklahoma State, a lock in Kansas and near-locks in Iowa State and Kansas State. There is a very logical path for the 15-12 Mountaineers to enter the Big 12 tournament with a losing record or just barely above .500.
The bright side is WVU has a bunch of chances for marquee wins, but a program with a 4-10 conference record this season hasn't provided a ton of reason for optimism.
Wisconsin Badgers
Projected Seed: 11
Wisconsin, like West Virginia, has also trickled down projections since the beginning of conference season.
Following an 11-2 start with a 3-0 Big Ten record, the Badgers have plummeted to 15-11 overall and 7-9 in the conference. While they've avoided truly nightmarish losses—although a recent one at Nebraska was bad—the sheer volume of setbacks has a real chance to overwhelm a handful of Quad 1 victories.
After all, there may be more on the horizon, too.
Prior to closing at Minnesota, Wisconsin hosts Iowa and Purdue, with a trip to Michigan sandwiched in between.
Anything worse than a 3-1 finish would put the Badgers firmly on the wrong side of the bubble entering the postseason, and they're already tracking for a bottom-five seed in the Big Ten tourney.