Buying or Selling MLB Stat Leader and Superstar Projections For 2023 Season

Until players start putting up actual, real numbers, stat projections for the 2023 Major League Baseball season are all we have.

So, who's up for a game of "Buy or Sell" with projections that really stand out?

These are coming from Steamer and ZiPS, by way of FanGraphs. There were "10" in particular—the quotations being necessary because some projections concern multiple players, up to and including the whole league—that grabbed our eye as being especially, well, eye-grabbing. From there, we sought to analyze how believable they are.

Let's start in the Lone Star state.

The Projection

The Texas Rangers obviously have high hopes for their new $185 million ace, and so does Steamer. Via a 2.66 ERA over 172 innings, it projects Jacob deGrom as the league's best pitcher to the tune of 5.5 WAR.

Analysis

The indication here is that deGrom still has his two-time Cy Young Award-winning self somewhere inside him, and that's not wholly unbelievable.

In August and September of 2022, the right-hander was firing his fastball at an average of 98.9 mph and drawing swings and misses at 21.1 percent of his pitches. He ultimately struck out 12.8 times as many batters as he walked, which is...[checks notes]...good.

But this was, of course, over just 64.1 innings. The right-hander missed out on the first four months of the season because of shoulder trouble, which followed him sitting out the last two-and-a-half months of 2021 with elbow trouble.

This doesn't necessarily mean that the side tightness that deGrom experienced in his first workout with the Rangers is panic-level stuff, but, well, some level of concern is warranted. It's all too familiar, after all, and it's not as if he's getting any younger. He'll be 35 on June 19.

Verdict: Sell

The Projection

Meanwhile in deGrom's former stomping grounds, Steamer projects a turn of the opposite sort for Justin Verlander. Though it has the three-time Cy Young Award winner's innings slated to jump from 175 to 180, it has his ERA skyrocketing from 1.75 to 3.32.

Analysis

There's surely some regression in order for Verlander in 2023. Because while posting back-to-back sub-2.00 ERAs is possible, only Greg Maddux (1994-95) and Clayton Kershaw (2013-14) have done it since MLB lowered the mound in 1969.

But will Verlander's ERA go so high as to be nearly twice what it was last season?

It wouldn't seem like he deserves that. While there was some distance between his actual ERA and his expected ERA in 2022, the latter was still firmly in elite territory at 2.66. That goes to show that pitchers who do everything well generally deserve good results.

Verlander is nonetheless a 40-year-old Tommy John survivor with thousands of innings on his arm, so some sort of durability breakdown can't be ruled out. He also downgraded defenses in going from the Houston Astros to the New York Mets, and MLB's new rules will ensure that the latter won't shift its defense as often as the former did in 2022.

Verdict: Buy

The Projection

That's an unrivaled 1-2 punch the New York Yankees have atop their starting rotation. This is according to ZiPS, which sees Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole leading all American League hurlers in WAR at 4.6 and 4.4, respectively.

Analysis

Health is always the big question mark hanging over Rodón's head, but less so now after what he did in 2022. While pitching for the San Francisco Giants, he set career highs with 31 starts, 178.0 innings and 2,985 total pitches.

Otherwise, there's no question about Rodón's capacity for dominance. He leads all hurlers in fielding independent pitching over the last two seasons, which is what you'd expect for a guy who's struck out 422 batters while allowing only 88 walks and 25 home runs over 310.2 innings.

As for Cole, it does bear noting that he has a good-not-great 3.73 ERA since June 2021. That would smack of coincidence were it not for his particular relevance to the crackdown on sticky stuff that began around then.

On the plus side, Cole had his best ever fastball velocity as he was striking out an MLB-high 257 batters over 200.2 innings last year. With more of that, he'd only need a few lucky bounces to push his ERA lower than last year's mark of 3.50.

Verdict: Buy

The Projection

Elsewhere in the AL East, ZiPS projects the Baltimore Orioles to have not one, but two hitters worth at least 5 WAR, which is generally considered the baseline for an All-Star-caliber player. One is Adley Rutschman at 5.8, and the other is Gunnar Henderson at an even 5.0.

Analysis

Rutschman's end of this bargain is an easy buy, as he's already proven that he can play at that high of a level.

It took Rutschman time to find his footing upon arriving in Baltimore last year, but hitting his first home run on June 15 kicked off a 93-game stretch in which he put up a 151 wRC+ and ranked third among all position players in fWAR. It was a proof of concept for how he can be a superior two-way catcher, the likes of whom tend to be valuable indeed.

For his part, Henderson spent the final month of 2022 providing his own proof of concept for why he checks in as the league's No. 1 prospect in MLB.com's rankings.

The 21-year-old went deep for his first major league hit on Aug. 31 and ended up with a squarely above average 125 wRC+ over 132 plate appearances. Before anyone raises the possibility of good luck, just know that he had the league's highest hard-hit rate in that span.

Verdict: Buy

The Projection

In San Diego, here's what Steamer and ZiPS project for Fernando Tatis Jr.'s return to the Padres after a year away:

• Steamer: 35 HR, 24 SB, 161 wRC+, 5.5 WAR
• ZiPS: 31 HR, 19 SB, 156 wRC+, 4.6 WAR

A big success, in other words.

Analysis

If those figures look familiar, it's because they're in line with what Tatis did between 2019 and 2021. A sample of 273 games yielded a 153 wRC+, with categorically absurd 162-game averages of 48 home runs, 31 stolen bases and 8.1 WAR.

It's not as if it's all now ancient history just because Tatis didn't play in 2022, which is to say nothing of the fact he's still only 24.

Tatis will, however, miss the first 20 games of the season as he serves out the remainder of his 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Even setting aside any concerns that maybe his earlier dominance wasn't on the level, there's still the concern of whether his body will hold up.

Injuries cut short both Tatis' 2019 and 2021 seasons, and he's coming into 2023 off one surgery on his shoulder and two on his left wrist. Even if he's able to stay on the field, there's the possibility of the Ronald Acuña Jr. effect of just not being all the way back just yet.

Verdict: Sell

The Projection

Speaking of Acuña, the Atlanta superstar is one of two players projected by Steamer for a 30-30 season in 2022. The other is Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez, who notably became the fastest rookie ever to 25 homers and 25 steals in 2022.

Analysis

If anything is going to keep Rodríguez from a 30-30 season in 2023, it's consistency. Because as much as he has both power and speed in spades, he went fishing an awful lot in posting subpar strikeout and walk rates in 2022.

With Acuña, the question is more so one of durability. Even if he is indeed fully recovered from the ACL tear he suffered in July 2021, he hasn't played in a full 162-game season since 2019. Could there come a point in 2023 when he runs out of gas?

Even with these things said, however, we're sitting here thinking not 30-30 for Acuña and Rodríguez, but 40-40.

Back in 2019, Acuña fell just three steals shy of becoming only the fifth member of that hallowed club. Rodriguez, meanwhile, hit home runs at a 41-homer pace after he got his first on May 1 of last year. And thanks to bigger bases and other new rules, the environment will be right for both players to maximize their speed this season.

Verdict: Buy

The Projection

Not that anyone's going to be surprised, but Steamer and ZiPS are on the same page as the DraftKings Sportsbook regarding the favorite to lead MLB in home runs. It's Aaron Judge, because of course it would be on the heels of his 62-homer outburst in 2022.

Analysis

Neither Steamer nor ZiPS projects Judge to venture north of the 60-homer threshold again. The former puts his home run total at 44, with the latter landing just a couple ticks higher at 46.

That's obviously still a lot of home runs, though, and the easier statistical argument to make is that both are underselling Judge. The 6'7", 282-pounder didn't exactly overachieve last season, as his expected home run total came out to 64.

Judge is a soon-to-be 31-year-old with a history of injuries, however, so the durability question very much applies here. History is also not on his side. Since the turn of the century, only José Bautista has had the top of the home run board all to himself in back-to-back years.

It's likewise not hard to spot other guys who could give Judge a challenge. Just a few who come to mind are Yordan Álvarez, Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber and perhaps especially Mike Trout, who homered 40 times in only 119 games last season.

Verdict: Sell

The Projection

In addition to breaking the American League single-season record for home runs, another thing Judge did last year was beat Shohei Ohtani for the league lead for WAR. That'll happen again, according to ZiPS. It has Judge at 8.0 and Ohtani with a total of 7.5.

Analysis

Whether it's Judge or someone else who ends up on top, there's more than one good reason to believe that Ohtani will indeed fall short of the league lead for WAR.

For starters, WAR is constructed in such a way that it inherently underrates the Los Angeles Angels' two-way star. For another, he faces more of an adjustment to the pitch timer than most. Among hurlers who tossed at least 1,000 pitches in 2022, he was the slowest worker.

Whatever Ohtani loses on the mound, however, he might more than make up for on offense.

He's indeed another guy with proven 40-homer power, and he should benefit more than most from the shift ban and the bigger bases. He was the third-most shifted hitter of 2022, and his unrivaled quickness from home to first figure to net him additional infield hits. Those, in turn, could only lead to more stolen bases.

Verdict: Sell

The Projection

According to ZiPS, only three hitters will finish the year with a batting average of at least .300. Steamer isn't even that confident, proposing that nobody will reach that mark.

Analysis

It would be easy to chalk this up to how projection systems tend to err on the conservative side, but that would be ignoring how the prevalence of .300 hitters is on a decline that mirrors that of the league's overall batting average.

Courtesy of the good folks at Codify Baseball, here are the gory details:

It's a good bet, though, that the ban on shifts, the pitch timer and the other new regulations will help reverse this trend in 2023. There should at least be more balls in play, which should translate to more hits even if the shift ban doesn't necessarily lead to a massive increase in ground balls sneaking into the outfield.

Whether Steamer accounts for such possibilities is unclear, but ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski has confirmed that his projections do not. As such, it seems reasonable to wonder if both systems are dramatically underestimating how many .300 hitters there will be this season.

Verdict: Sell

The Projection

Sticking with things that Steamer and ZiPS don't project to happen, neither system anticipates that anyone will steal as many as 50 bases in 2023.

Analysis

This, too, is in line with recent trends. Stolen bases have been nowhere near as common as they were in the 1970s and 1980s, and you have to go back to 2017 to find the last time somebody swiped as many as 50 bags in a season.

Hypothetically, this is another area where the new regulations should help. The league indeed tested bigger bases, the pitch timer and limits on disengagements from the rubber in the minors last year, and the result was a substantial increase in stolen bases.

At the major league level, there are any numer of speedsters who could have a field day on the basepaths this year. Maybe not Adalberto Mondesi (weird pick, DraftKings), but Rodríguez, Acuña, Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr. and blazing-fast rookie Corbin Carroll could.

Worth considering, though, is the possibility that any increase in stolen bases will be more of a democratic affair. The juiced ball of 2019 comes to mind, as it effectively widened the field of home run hitters rather than putting more power in the hands of a select few.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.