2023 NHL Playoffs: Analyzing the Race for the Final Two Wild-Card Spots in the East

We realize most of your collective attention is being paid to the trade deadline and the rumors and machinations going on there, but the race for the final two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is shaping up to be intense.

There are seven teams you can say are officially "in the hunt" for the two wild-card spots. Those teams are at most six points back of the second wild-card spot and nine from the first spot. With the divisional teams being virtually set aside from where they'll land between first and third place, the real drama is with virtually everyone else in the East.

Fans of the New York Islanders, Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators are now invested in the stretch run, and trying to plot out who has the edge is real difficult. The teams have different numbers of games remaining, varying difficulty in schedules and severity of injuries, as well as different needs to address at the trade deadline if they so choose.

The idea of the NHL adapting the NBA's play-in round for the final spots in the playoffs is getting an accidental kind of tryout with everyone jockeying for the right to possibly (probably?) get slammed by the Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes in the first round.

Never mind that, though, getting there is the fun part and the reason for the season. It's also why we're breaking down each of the seven teams in this playoff battle royal to see who, if anyone, has an easier road to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It's a good thing the Islanders hold down the first wild-card spot for the time being, because they're running out of track to lock down their place in the postseason.

The gang from on Long Island have played the most games of the seven wild-card contenders with 61. That gives them 21 games to do their part to return to the playoffs after missing out last year. What that also means is everyone behind them in some fashion has games in hand to catch and possibly pass them.

Florida has one game in hand, Washington has two; Pittsburgh, Detroit and Ottawa have five and Buffalo has six. The Sabres are seven points behind, but with 12 possible points on the board, the chance is there they could fly past the Islanders (and everybody else for that matter).

New York also has nine games against either the East's top six or Western Conference teams currently in playoff spots, with two against Los Angeles and one each against Minnesota and Winnipeg.

That's the bad news, but there is good news for the Islanders. They'll have plenty of opportunity to take points away from their rivals in the final 21 games. They have three games against Washington, two against Buffalo and one each against Pittsburgh (fireworks incoming) and Detroit.

They also have the best goalie among the seven in Ilya Sorokin, and when you have the best goalie, you've always got an advantage, particularly because these games can get a lot tighter as the schedule melts away.

The real pain for the Isles comes from Mathew Barzal being out week-to-week with a lower-body injury and Jean-Gabriel Pageau also out of action with an upper-body ailment. Barzal's absence is a particularly tough blow because he's their second-leading scorer. Trading for Bo Horvat was a pretty good case of accidental clairvoyance, because the Islanders are going to need him to keep up his torrid scoring pace to get them to the playoffs.

It feels like we've been waiting all season for the Panthers to wake up and get their act together. Last season's Presidents' Trophy winners have been all over the map, but since January 1 they've gone 13-8-2 and are in the second wild-card position, and the news is getting better.

Scoring forward Anthony Duclair is due to return to action this week from an Achilles injury he suffered in the offseason. He scored 31 goals last season, and Florida's inconsistent offense getting a lift like this is a classic get-a-guy-back-and-that's-their-deadline-day-move move. The only other way a team gets a 30-goal scorer to join their team at this point in the season is to trade for Timo Meier.

The Panthers could do anything at the deadline. They should be in a position to add, but their precarious salary-cap situation could make that difficult unless they move out someone who's been a solid contributor throughout the season.

Florida's final 22 games are wrought with challenges. They have seven must-win games against their playoff challengers, with two each against Buffalo and Ottawa and single matchups against Washington, Detroit and Pittsburgh. They have nine against current playoff teams, including three against Toronto. Their final five games of the season are a brutal gauntlet of home games against Buffalo and Ottawa, a visit to Washington and two home games to close out the season against Toronto and Carolina.

It's a good thing Sergei Bobrovsky's play has been more like the Bob of old than how he played earlier this season, because they'll need him to excel to get the Panthers back in the postseason.

Despite sitting outside of the playoff picture right now, the Penguins are very well placed to return to the postseason.

Pittsburgh is one point behind Florida and four behind New York, but they have four games in hand on the Panthers and five on the Islanders. With 26 games left to go, playoff destiny is virtually in their hands. The Penguins have the highest win percentage of the seven hopeful teams at .563, just ahead of Detroit and Buffalo.

Even better for Pittsburgh is they just got starting goalie Tristan Jarry back from injury, which should help them straighten out their 4-5-1 record in their past 10 games, including two brutal losses to the Islanders and another to the Capitals in a shootout.

Pittsburgh's final 26 games are rather unkind. Thirteen of those matchups come against current playoff teams, including three in four games against the Rangers in mid-March. They also deal with Tampa Bay twice and have a game each against Edmonton, Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota.

They have six matchups against their direct competitors, with two games against Detroit and one each against Ottawa, Washington, the Islanders and Florida. To counter that, they've got two games left with Columbus, and one of them is the season finale after they face Chicago. There are no gimmies on the schedule, but, well, those are two teams who could be deep in the final throes of their tank battle for the draft lottery.

Pittsburgh will be fascinating to watch at the deadline. They could use some help with depth at forward but also have a fair handful of upcoming unrestricted free agents this summer. It's hard to imagine them being sellers.

About a week ago, many of us were freshening up our epitaphs for a couple teams in the Atlantic Division, but Detroit got up off the mat in a big way recently. They're 9-4-0 in their last 13 games and mixed in a five-game winning streak to really grab our attention.

Now the Red Wings are sitting two points back of Florida and five back of the Islanders with 26 games to go. They've got four games in hand on Florida and five on New York.

What's allowed Detroit to get back on track is the play of Ville Husso. He's gone 8-3-0 in his past 11 games with a .923 save percentage. It's a return to early-season form for him that was desperately needed for the Wings. Add in Dylan Larkin's 16 points in the past 13 games, Tyler Bertuzzi's return to the lineup and Lucas Raymond returning this week, and everything is really looking up.

Now let's take a big sip of water and look at the rest of Detroit's schedule...(insert spit take here).

Of their final 26 games, more than half of them (14) come against teams currently in playoff spots including two games each against Tampa Bay, Boston and Carolina. Seven games come against direct competition, with two each against Ottawa (back-to-back on the road!) and Pittsburgh and one each with the Islanders, Florida and Buffalo. Detroit also has road games against Nashville, St. Louis and Winnipeg, and they're all at separate points.

How GM Steve Yzerman handles the deadline should be fun. The signings he made over the summer were done with the intention of getting Detroit into the playoffs ASAP, and they've got a great opportunity to do it. Their bottom-six forwards have some questions, and their defense looks like it could use a little boost too. But the best thing for Detroit is to have Husso continue to play like he is now, and if there are players to get who can help him out, Yzerman will look to strike.

The good news for the Capitals is that Alex Ovechkin has returned following his father's death, and they desperately need him back.

The bad news is they've been in some kind of funk lately. Since the new year began, they've gone 7-12-1 and have slipped out of a playoff spot, but they are just two points back of Florida and five behind the Islanders. They're 3-7-0 in their last 10 games. Ovechkin might have to play the role of Superman down the stretch. At least that role is familiar to him.

To have that kind of run and not be further back is rather miraculous, but it also highlights how much of a rock fight this battle has been. Teams have slipped up plenty, and it's what makes this whole race so fun (so long as one of the teams isn't your favorite).

The Capitals need more help on the injury front, however. While they've gotten Tom Wilson and Nicklas Bäckström back in recent weeks, they're still without John Carlson, who took a slapshot in the face just before Christmas and is still a ways away from returning to action. If there's an area the Capitals must address at the trade deadline, it's on the blue line.

The Capitals' final 23 games will afford them plenty of opportunities to get wins against other teams in the race for the wild card, two in particular. They have three games with the Islanders and two with the Sabres and single games against the Penguins and Panthers.

What works against them is they've got the California road swing through L.A., Anaheim and San Jose coming up next week, as well as a one-off trip to Minnesota. Add in 13 games against current playoff teams, including three games with the Rangers with their final two at Boston and home against New Jersey, and it's an uncomfortable road ahead.

The Sabres truly are the new kids on the block in this playoff race. They're the NHL's youngest team and haven't been this present in a playoff race in roughly a decade. They arrive in this spot a little bit ahead of schedule, but they're in a good position to get control of their playoff dreams.

The Sabres have played the fewest games of the seven teams in this postseason ro-sham-bo (55). While they only one have one game in hand on Detroit, Ottawa and Pittsburgh, they have four on Washington, five on Florida and six on the Islanders.

There are points on the board to be taken, and with Buffalo having the second-highest win percentage among the seven teams, that would bode well for them. They also have the best goal differential of all the teams (plus-11).

There are issues for the Sabres, however.

Their penalty kill is ranked 30th in the league and it's been a very obvious problem in recent weeks. Every Sabres game is fun to watch because it's a throwback to the days of firewagon hockey in the '80s. Buffalo is the fourth-highest-scoring team in the league, but they also allow the eighth-most shots against per game. They also struggle at the faceoff dot mightily as the league's worst team in draws.

It's not expected they'll do much of anything at the deadline apart from maybe adding a defenseman to help some of those above issues, but GM Kevyn Adams has plenty of assets to use if he wants to make a big splash.

Buffalo's remaining schedule is clearly busy, but only eight of the remaining 27 games are against direct competition for the postseason, highlighted with two each against the Islanders, Capitals and Panthers and late-season tilts against Detroit and Ottawa. But they have 17 against current teams in playoff position, including three against the Rangers and two each against Tampa Bay, Boston and New Jersey, along with single games with Toronto, Edmonton, Dallas and Carolina.

If Buffalo makes the playoffs for the first time since 2011, the Sabres will have earned it.

Much like the Detroit Red Wings, talk of the Ottawa Senators' demise has been a bit premature.

The Sens got back into the discussion for the playoffs (barely) by going on a 7-2-1 tear in their last 10 games and 11-8-1 since January 1. Ottawa is six points behind Florida and nine back of the Islanders. However, they have four games in hand on the Panthers and five on the Islanders. It doesn't leave a lot of room for error, though.

Ottawa is also still a bit enigmatic. During their last 10 games they've piled up 38 goals and allowed 27. The offense has been good, and the goaltending hasn't quite lost them games. There's also the fact that their goaltending has been under duress from injury.

Anton Forsberg went down for the season two weeks ago with two torn MCLs. Cam Talbot has been out since Jan. 25, but he returns to action this weekend, and the timing couldn't be better to help get the Senators further up the standings.

Sens GM Pierre Dorion is not one to go quietly into a trade deadline. He got a head start on Wednesday night, trading Nikita Zaitsev and second- and fourth-round picks to Chicago for future considerations. That move frees up money to make moves while the Senators are up for sale and can't exactly splash the cash.

A report from Daily Faceoff's Frank Seravalli said Ottawa called about St. Louis defenseman Colton Parayko, but Ottawa Sun reporter Bruce Garrioch said it doesn't seem likely they have. If there's any truth to take from that, it's that the Sens should absolutely be looking for help on defense. It's their greatest weakness.

How the Senators navigate their final 26 games on a razor's edge will be fascinating if they stay hot. Any kind of extended losing streak could send them back to prepping for the lottery. They have six games against playoff competitors which won't allow them to take much away from them potentially. They have 15 games against teams currently in playoff position, with three against Carolina and two each against Toronto and Tampa Bay. They also have a five-game road trip coming up that goes from Chicago to Seattle, then across Western Canada.

Ottawa doesn't have a hill to climb to get to the playoffs, they've got Mt. Everest to ascend.