Predicting the Biggest Losers of MCBB's 2023 Conference Tournaments

Men's conference tournament time is fast approaching, and for teams on the bubble or looking to secure the automatic bid in a likely one-bid league, it's make-or-break time for their 2022-23 season.

Multiple wins in the conference tournament could push some of these teams to the right side of the bubble for an at-large bid, while an early exit could take them out of the NCAA tournament conversation altogether.

Ahead we've highlighted seven teams—five major conference contenders on the bubble for an at-large bid and two one-bid league teams that will be on upset alert—who could walk away as the biggest losers of 2023 conference tournaments.

Let the scramble to clinch a spot in March Madness begin!

Record: 20-10 (11-8 in Pac-12)

NET Ranking: 63

The Arizona State Sun Devils had a 15-3 record on Jan. 14 following back-to-back wins over Oregon and Oregon State on the road, and their NCAA tournament resume put them comfortably into the projected field.

They have since gone 5-7 in their last 12 games, including five Quad 2 losses during that stretch, and their tournament outlook was in serious jeopardy before they managed to sneak out an 89-88 win at home over Arizona last Saturday.

Five players scored in double-figures in that win over the Wildcats, and finding that type of offensive balance will be the key going forward for a team that ranks No. 120 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency.

It will likely take multiple wins in the Pac-12 tournament for them to receive an at-large bid, and based on their 5-5 record in Quad 2 games this year they seem like a prime candidate to be upset by a lower-seeded team.

Record: 19-11 (9-8 in SEC)

NET Ranking: 36

The Auburn Tigers climbed as high as No. 11 in the AP poll on the strength of an 8-0 start to the year, and they were still 16-3 and comfortably ranked in the Top 25 after a 6-1 start to conference play.

Since then they have been in a free fall.

With a 3-8 record in their last 11 games, including road losses to Kentucky and Alabama in their last two times out that would have greatly improved their tournament outlook, they are in serious danger of falling to the wrong side of the bubble.

They have fallen out of the top four spots in the SEC standings, which means they'll need to play an extra game in the SEC tournament since the top four teams get a double bye. Anything short of reaching the semifinals could knock them out of the NCAA tournament field.

Record: 21-9 (13-6 in ACC)

NET Ranking: 64

The Clemson Tigers have a strange resume.

With a 21-9 record overall and a 4-3 showing in Quad 1 games, they have the look of an NCAA tournament team at first glance.

However, they also have two Quad 3 losses and two Quad 4 losses, and they are 3-5 overall in their last eight games heading into the regular-season finale against Notre Dame on Saturday.

They may be tied for fourth in the ACC standings, but they are seventh in the conference in NET ranking, making them a prime candidate to be upset early in the conference tournament by a lower-ranked team.

An early loss would almost certainly punch their ticket to the NIT.

Record: 26-7 (15-3 in A-Sun)

NET Ranking: 40

The Liberty Flames have won at least 20 games every year since making the move from the Big South to the Atlantic Sun during the 2018-19 season, and they are looking for their third trip to the NCAA tournament in that five-year span.

Point guard Darius McGhee is one of the best mid-major players in the country, averaging 22.7 points and shooting 41.1 percent from three-point range, and the Flames rank fifth in the nation with 10.7 made threes per game.

They are far and away the best team in the conference on paper, but they will need to win the A-Sun tournament to punch their ticket to March Madness, and a good Kennesaw State squad could be a major roadblock.

The Owls came away with the victory in their head-to-head matchup on Feb. 16, overcoming a 12-of-24 shooting night from beyond the arc by the Flames to pull out an 88-81 win, and they have a matching 15-3 record in conference play.

Record: 23-7 (13-4 in AAC)

NET Ranking: 37

The Houston Cougars have been one of the best teams in college basketball this year and could be on their way to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but there's a chance the AAC will be a one-bid league.

The Memphis Tigers have been the clear No. 2 team in the conference this year, but a Quad 3 loss to Tulane at the beginning of February was a major blow to their resume, and their best wins are against Texas A&M (NET: 26) and Auburn (NET: 36) back in mid-December.

Would that be enough to earn an at-large bid?

A win against Houston in the regular-season finale on Saturday would completely change the narrative. But assuming they drop that game to the Cougars, they will need multiple wins in the AAC tournament and perhaps even a rematch with Houston in the title game to avoid slipping off the bubble.

Record: 24-6 (15-2 in MAC)

NET Ranking: 81

The Toledo Rockets currently sit atop the MAC standings with a 15-2 record in conference play, but they might not be the favorites to win the conference tournament in what will almost certainly be a one-bid league.

The Rockets have rattled off 14 straight victories heading into Friday's regular-season finale, with their last loss coming in a 75-63 defeat against Kent State back on Jan. 10, and that's the team that could stand in their way of earning an NCAA tournament berth.

The Golden Flashes have a sizable advantage in NET ranking, and they are capable of shutting down the opposition when things are clicking with defense that ranks No. 34 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

Toledo will need to avenge that earlier loss to Kent State if they want to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1980.

Record: 16-13 (8-11 in Big Ten)

NET Ranking: 77

The Indiana Hoosiers made the NCAA tournament with a losing record in Big Ten play last year, and both Maryland and Michigan State punched their ticket to March Madness in 2021 with a 9-11 showing in conference play.

In other words, the Wisconsin Badgers are not out of the running yet, despite a 63-61 loss against Purdue on Thursday night ensuring they will finish below .500 in conference play this year.

The bigger question mark is their ability to string together victories.

It will take multiple wins in the Big Ten tournament to put them on the right side of the bubble, and they have not won consecutive games since Jan. 3, going 5-11 in their last 16 games since that time.

The odds are stacked against the Badgers, and they are lacking in momentum heading into conference tournament play.

All stats courtesy of Sports Reference.