Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament

The 2023 men's NCAA tournament has already given us some huge upsets in the early rounds. Most notably, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson took down No. 1 Purdue, and No. 2 Arizona fell to No. 15 Princeton.

As the tournament continues, plenty of teams could be the next to suffer a shocking loss.

An upset can happen when a lower-seeded team beats a higher-seeded one, the most common type this time of year. But they also happen when the team that Las Vegas favors loses.

For Sunday's games, let's take a look at the squads that are favored by the betting odds from DraftKings and should be on upset alert.

Watch March Madness Live to stream every tournament game through the Final Four.

Opponent: No. 6 Creighton

Money Line: Baylor -115

The Baylor Bears cruised past their first-round opponent, beating No. 14 UCSB 74-56 on Thursday. But although Baylor is the No. 3 seed and favored by Las Vegas, the Bears get a challenging opponent in No. 6 Creighton on Sunday.

The Bluejays are coming off a 72-63 victory over No. 11 NC State on Friday.

Baylor is led by its high-powered attack, which ranks No. 2 in KenPom.com's offensive efficiency. Guards Adam Flagler and Keyonte George both average 15.6 points per game, and LJ Cryer shoots 41.8 percent from behind the three-point line.

But this is one of the toughest defenses Baylor will have faced this season. The Bluejays rank 14th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. The Bears went 4-5 against the Big 12 teams that rank higher than Creighton in the category—Iowa State (0-3), Kansas (1-1), Texas (1-1) and Oklahoma St. (2-0)—so they've had their fair share of losses to squads with top defenses.

Creighton also ranks fifth nationally in defensive rebounds, whereas Baylor ranks 327th in the same category.

If this game is decided down low, Creighton will have to rely heavily on center Ryan Kalkbrenner. The junior center had a career-high 31 points in the win over NC State, adding seven boards.

The Bears and Bluejays last faced off in the tournament in 2014. The Bears won 85-55 in the second round.

Opponent: No. 7 Michigan State

Money Line: Marquette -145

Marquette has been playing some great basketball, having gone 10-0 since early February. It's also coming off a 78-61 first-round win over Vermont.

But don't sleep on head coach Tom Izzo's Michigan State, which just beat USC 72-62. Izzo's defense became much more physical in the second half of the opening-round win, holding the Trojans to 34 percent shooting in the latter frame.

Marquette will be one of the most challenging offenses MSU has faced this season. But how Sparty slows attacks could help them pull off an upset. The Golden Eagles rank sixth in offensive efficiency at KenPom and average 79.9 points per game. Michigan State, meanwhile, checks in at 38th in defensive efficiency.

Izzo, who won his 54th tournament game Friday, obviously has a lot more experience coaching during this time of year than his counterpart. Shaka Smart, meanwhile, has an 8-9 tournament record, dating back to his time at VCU from 2009-10 to 2014-15.

"Older, tough, they do a really good job of attacking and getting in the paint," Smart said of what MSU does well on Saturday. "And they seem like they're passing the ball really well. Michigan State has a very good blend in their offense of on-ball and off-ball screening. Those guys, they do a nice job using pick and rolls."

Let's see if Izzo's experience coaching in March and his defense is enough to pull off an upset.

Opponent: No. 3 Kansas State

Money Line: Kentucky -150

Although Kentucky has the worse seed in this battle of Wildcats, Las Vegas favors John Calipari's squad to win it. Kentucky enters as a three-point favorite against Kansas State.

UK got its first win in the opening round of the NCAA tournament since 2019 on Friday, defeating No. 11 Providence 61-53. It shot just 25 percent from the floor in the second half, but Antonio Reeves' 22 points, paired with Oscar Tshiebwe's 25 boards on the night, was enough to secure victory.

On Sunday, Kentucky can't afford to shoot as poorly as it did against Providence. K-State ranks 19th in KenPom defensive efficiency and sports a top-50 offense.

K-State's Keyontae Johnson is one of a pair of stars, as he averages 17.7 points and 5.5 defensive rebounds per game, both of which lead the team. During Kansas State's 77-65 win over Montana State in the first round, Johnson finished with 18 points, eight rebounds and a block.

Guard Marquis Nowell, who posted 14 assists in the most recent win, is the other half of that duo. He's averaging 16.8 points, 7.8 dimes and 2.4 steals per game.

Kansas State's first-year head coach, Jerome Tang, is looking forward to matching up against Kentucky. Tang coached at Baylor since 2003 before heading to K-State.

"This won't be my first time playing Kentucky, Tang said Friday. "We broke their 55-game win streak when I was at Baylor at Rupp [in 2012], and the other two times that we played them a neutral site we won."

We'll see if Kansas State can get the victory as the Vegas underdog.

Opponent: No. 11 Pitt

Money Line: Xavier -210

Xavier picked up a No. 3 seed but hasn't exactly been playing like one in recent weeks.

The biggest issue is how badly the Musketeers have fallen behind in their last two games.

In its opening tournament contest against Kennesaw State, Xavier found itself down by 13 with 10 minutes left in the second half. The Musketeers came back to win 72-67 but were helped by the Owls' 2-of-15 shooting over the last nine-and-a-half minutes of the game.

In last week's Big East tournament title-game loss to Marquette, the Musketeers were down 21-4 in the first half. Xavier shot 34.4 percent on the day and couldn't recover.

The Musketeers face a Pitt team that's been on a run recently. The Panthers beat Mississippi State in the FIrst Four in Dayton, Ohio, and knocked off Iowa State on Friday afternoon.

The Cyclones were a four-point favorite, but Pitt's defense shut down Iowa State's offense completely. The Panthers held them to just 41 points, and Iowa State shot 23.3 percent from the floor. Pitt's biggest defensive weapon was freshman forward Guillermo Diaz Graham, who had three blocks and a steal on the day.

If the Panthers defense can shut down Xavier's leading scorers, Souley Boum and Zach Freemantle, the Panthers' tournament run could continue.

Gambling problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/KS/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600 (CA-ONT), or calling 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA (select parishes)/MD/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY/CA-ONT only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. DraftKings operates pursuant to an Operating Agreement with iGaming Ontario. Please play responsibly.