Power Ranking Every MLB Team's Ace Entering 2023 Season

It says something that five of the seven highest average salaries in Major League Baseball belong to starting pitchers. Namely, that aces are valuable currency.

With this in mind and with the start of the 2023 MLB season now just a few days away, let's rank every team's ace from No. 30 down to No. 1.

First, let's get on the same page about what "ace" means in this context. Because while we did use Opening Day assignments as the tiebreaker for otherwise tough calls, what we really did was scan each rotation for that guy. Maybe he's not his team's official No. 1 starter, but, come on, he's the ace.

From there, rankings were informed by past performance, but also upsides and downsides for the 2023 season. Those concerned such things as age, injury history and any potential fluctuations in stuff and control.

We'll go five at a time for the bottom 20 and then one at a time for the top 10.

30. LHP Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals

Age: 33

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 152.2 IP, 210 H (27 HR), 128 K, 49 BB, 6.31 ERA

This alone should tell you just how flimsy the Nationals rotation is heading into 2023. Corbin still has some ace bona fides by way of his two All-Star selections and $140 million contract, but he's led the majors in earned runs allowed in each of the last two seasons and his minus-2.5 rWAR sits ahead of only Dallas Keuchel, who is presently unsigned.

29. LHP Kyle Muller, Oakland Athletics

Age: 25

2022 Stats: 3 GS, 12.1 IP, 13 H (2 HR), 12 K, 8 BB, 8.03 ERA

We would have been a loss at who to choose for Oakland's ace if it hadn't picked Muller to start on Opening Day. That he's walked 28 guys in 49 major league innings points to the obvious flaw he needs to correct, but the stuff is there. Namely, a fastball that's gotten up to 97 mph and a slider and curveball that are both capable of drawing awkward swings.

28. RHP Kyle Gibson, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 35

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 167.2 IP, 176 H (24 HR), 144 K, 48 BB, 5.05 ERA

Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and especially top prospect Grayson Rodriguez are interesting pitchers and all, but Gibson obviously has experience that those three simply don't. He should also be in for a rebound this year, as his ERA in 2022 wasn't exactly helped by the Phillies' lousy defense and Citizens Bank Park's home run-friendly dimensions.

27. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 17 GS, 91.0 IP, 87 H (12 HR), 72 K, 34 BB, 4.05 ERA

Last year was a rough one for Rodriguez, both on and off the field. Our business is strictly to assess the former, and the biggest alarm there concerns how his strikeout rate and fastball belocity both dropped to career lows. But pretty much everything has looked better for him amid a spring in which he's pitched 13 scoreless innings, so there is hope of a rebound.

26. LHP Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox

Age: 33

2022 Stats: 2 GS, 5.2 IP, 5 H (0 HR), 5 K, 1 BB, 3.18 ERA

There are certain pangs that come with ranking a seven-time All-Star this low, but Sale just hasn't looked like himself in the 11 starts he's made over the last two seasons. He's mercifully made movement in the right direction this spring. He started with back-to-back scoreless outings and was at least sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball in a more difficult third outing.

25. RHP Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 181.2 IP, 185 H (30 HR), 150 K, 63 BB, 4.95 ERA

Márquez was something of a well-kept secret between 2019 and 2021, but he legit got crushed last season. Specifically, the four-seamer and sinker on which he relies so much just weren't effective. The mid-90s velocity was still there, however, and he's barely been touched as he's pitched 11 scoreless innings this spring.

24. RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

Age: 39

2022 Stats: 26 GS, 137.0 IP, 157 H (14 HR), 73 K, 27 BB, 3.68 ERA

Brady Singer was the Royals' best pitcher last season, but Greinke is the Cy Young Award winner who may or may not be destined for the Hall of Fame. And albeit in an unspectacular way, he's still good. Heck, he's living proof that you don't need to strike everyone out so long as you never walk anyone and stay away from dangerous contact.

23. RHP Pablo López, Minnesota Twins

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 180.0 IP, 157 H (21 HR), 174 K, 53 BB, 3.75 ERA

A fun fact about López is that the ERA he had last year was exactly the same as his expected ERA. That ought to put fears of possible regression to rest, but whether he can be any better is suspect. For as good as he is at hitting his spots, his stuff is broadly below average. In any other rotation, he might only be a No. 3 rather than a No. 1.

22. RHP Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

Age: 23

2022 Stats: 24 GS, 125.2 IP, 104 H (24 HR), 164 K, 48 BB, 4.44 ERA

Greene was a veritable machine of 100 mph fastballs in 2022, which made it that much weirder that he got hit as hard as he did. Yet he did eventually turn a corner with a 0.78 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 23 innings in September and October, during which he learned that high-octane fastballs are most effective when elevated. With more of that, he can fully break out.

21. RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 26

2022 Stats: 31 G, 29 GS, 159.0 IP, 162 H (14 HR), 138 K, 60 BB, 3.91 ERA

If you gave up on Keller after his near-constant flops between 2019 and 2021, now's the time to give him another chance. He pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA over his last 15 starts of 2022, mainly by putting more trust in a "sweeper" breaking ball that Stuff+ rated as an elite pitch. Oh, and he also has a new cutter.

20. RHP Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals

Age: 34

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 202.1 IP, 170 H (25 HR), 153 K, 39 BB, 3.29 ERA

Adam Wainwright is the de facto ace of the Cardinals staff, but he's going to begin 2023 on the injured list with a strained groin. Mikolas is a similar pitcher in that he's more crafty than overpowering, with upper-level command of four pitches that he threw at least 20 percent of the time last season. He puts a lot of trust in the Cardinals defense, but who wouldn't?

On Friday, the Cardinals rewarded Mikolas with a reported 2-year, $40M extension.

19. RHP Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs

Age: 31

2022 Stats: 25 GS, 138.2 IP, 123 H (16 HR), 119 K, 36 BB, 3.50 ERA

Last year was another solid season for Stroman, and that much more so as he pitched to a 2.56 ERA after returning from shoulder inflammation on July 9. That was largely him falling back in love with his sinker and chasing ground balls again. Even in a post-shift era, that's a good model for him to go back to with Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner at his back.

18. RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 200.0 IP, 172 H (18 HR), 198 K, 36 BB, 2.88 ERA

Bieber was everything you could want in an ace when he won the AL Cy Young Award in 2020. Since then, a shoulder injury that cost him half of 2021 and decreases to his velocity and strikeout rate in 2022 have dinged his stock. But as long as he has his excellent command and that stellar knuckle-curveball, he won't be in danger of a total downfall.

17. RHP Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants

Age: 26

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 192.1 IP, 174 H (11 HR), 163 K, 49 BB, 2.90 ERA

Webb ranks fifth among all hurlers in fWAR since the second half of 2021, so we're underrating him if anything. His stuff is really good. He also locates well. It would be nice if he struck more guys out, but it's some comfort that he's the best ground-ball pitcher not named Framber Valdez. So, like we said, probably underrating him.

16. RHP Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Age: 36

2022 Stats: 30 GS, 194.2 IP, 148 H (22 HR), 197 K, 37 BB, 3.10 ERA

Blake Snell will start San Diego's opener, but only because Joe Musgrove is injured and Darvish needs more time to get sorted following the World Baseball Classic. He's a Tommy John survivor who'll be 37 by the time this season is over, but you'd never know it from how he still has good velocity and spin, particularly on a fastball and slider that still rate at the top of their respective classes. He has nothing to fear...except for maybe Kyle Schwarber.

15. RHP Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners

Age: 30

2022 Stats: 25 GS, 150.1 IP, 118 H (13 HR), 167 K, 45 BB, 2.99 ERA

"What happened to Luis Castillo's changeup?" is one of the great unsolved mysteries of our time. It's a good thing, then, that he has a fastball and slider that stand among the best. He could even stand to throw the latter more often, so it bodes well that the Mariners seem to be emphasizing it. That's his ticket to make the leap from "very good" to "great."

14. LHP Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Age: 25

2022 Stats: 28 GS, 166.1 IP, 116 H (19 HR), 194 K, 38 BB, 2.54 ERA

Let us not forget that McClanahan started the All-Star Game for the American League last year, and deservedly so after closing the first half with a 1.71 ERA. That a bum shoulder wrecked his second half is a drag, especially knowing how careful the Rays had been with him. All the same, his control and especially his stuff are both decidedly ace-caliber.

13. LHP Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 201.1 IP, 166 H (11 HR), 194 K, 67 BB, 2.82 ERA

Not since the days of Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb was it as hard to hit a fly ball off a pitcher as it was off Valdez in 2022. Because he can also do strikeouts and he keeps his walks under control, it's little wonder he had a historic streak of quality starts. And while he does face some adjustment to the post-shift era, it's not as big as you might think.

12. RHP Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 25

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 196.2 IP, 144 H (16 HR), 180 K, 51 BB, 2.24 ERA

Manoah had the same rWAR as Justin Verlander last year, so placing him outside the top 10 feels weird. The only defense we have is that his under-the-hood metrics from 2022 hint at some regression in 2023. Otherwise, there's only so much doubt to heap on a young starter with four good pitches and who can rack up innings to boot. He's special.

11. RHP Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers

Age: 34

2022 Stats: 11 GS, 64.1 IP, 40 H (9 HR), 102 K, 8 BB, 3.08 ERA

Some say that deGrom is one of the greatest pitchers of all time, but you just don't get to be a top-10 contemporary pitcher when you've made all of 26 starts over the last two seasons. This being said, his stuff and location remained chef's-kiss sublime when he was able to pitch last year, and so it went when he finally made his spring debut for the Rangers.

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 184.0 IP, 126 H (16 HR), 227 K, 78 BB, 2.20 ERA

Dylan Cease is not perfect. You can tell from the walks, of which he has 21 more of than any other pitcher over the last three seasons.

We're nonetheless inclined to rate Cease as a top-10 pitcher on account of his glorious mustache. And, more appropriately, because of his AL-leading 6.4 rWAR from last year and because he might possess the best pitch in baseball.

His slider was the most valuable pitch of 2022 in terms of run value, and not just because he threw it 42.9 percent of the time. That it drew whiffs at a 43.3 percent clip is a testament to both its late action and Cease's proficiency at putting it just out of reach.

What could make Cease even more dangerous in 2023 is if he gets more from a four-seam fastball that he can run up to the mid-to-high 90s. To this end, it got really good when he started elevating it in the final month of 2022.

In any case, Cease should remain living proof that you can get away with walks so long as you never allow hits. Maybe the only piece of such proof, but still.

Age: 26

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 175.0 IP, 127 H (23 HR), 166 K, 41 BB, 2.16 ERA

Here's a quick recap of what Julio Urías has done in the last three seasons:

• 2020: A 1.17 ERA in a dominant playoff run, culminating in him closing out the World Series
• 2021: A 2.96 ERA and career highs with 20 wins and 185.2 innings
• 2022: A National League-leading 2.16 ERA with 17 more wins and 175 more innings

This brings us to what should be the mic-drop moment, but not everything on the left-hander's resume is solid. There are even some visible cracks, such as the 1-mph drop in his average fastball from 2021 to 2022 and, uncoincidentally, his career-worst home run rate.

Still, this amounts to picking nits. Because even if everything wasn't quite perfect last year, Urías still spun the ball extremely well, got his strikeouts, limited his walks and, crucially, stifled hard contact with the best of 'em.

Ultimately, FanGraphs' Pitching+ metric—meant to capture "the overall quality of the pitcher's process"—rated Urías more highly than any other left-hander in 2022. Not bad for a guy who's somehow still only 26.

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 30 GS, 185.1 IP, 156 H (12 HR), 170 K, 32 BB, 2.48 ERA

There are any number of ways to go about ranking the best left-hander in baseball today, but maybe the most straightforward is to look at rWAR rankings for the last three seasons.

And, whaddya know, there's Max Fried on top.

Let's grant that Julio Urías and Carlos Rodón have better stuff than Fried, and that even newfangled metrics like Pitching+ don't rate Fried as some kind of super-pitcher. So, maybe we're just suckers for guys who pound the strike zone yet are somehow extremely difficult to square up?

Because that's Fried. His walk rate was in the 95th percentile last season and the difficulty hitters had driving the ball against him is evident beyond even his 51.2 ground-ball percentage. The average fly ball in 2022 left the bat at 92.8 mph. Off Fried, it was just 87.6 mph.

Fried is a guy who basically takes the phrase "throws a heavy ball" and makes it literal. It clearly works, as he otherwise wouldn't be the ace of one of the best starting staffs in the league.

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 31 GS, 184.0 IP, 121 H (15 HR), 192 K, 47 BB, 2.54 ERA

Are we giving in to recency bias here? Yeah, maybe.

Zac Gallen was, after all, on quite the heater last time anyone saw him in a regular-season setting. He came out of the All-Star break and ripped off a 1.49 ERA with about five times as many strikeouts (103) as walks (19). He pitched 44.1 scoreless innings in a row. He led qualifiers hurlers in fWAR. In all, fun times.

The frustrating thing about Gallen is that summarizing what makes him so effective is not as simple as pointing to one or two pitches that batters simply can't hit. He doesn't have, say, Jacob deGrom's fastball or Dylan Cease's slider.

What he does have is a solid four-pitch mix and a feel for pitching that Orel Hershiser likened to that of Greg Maddux. And it's not something that Gallen stumbled into, as he recounted to Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com last year about how he would search for holes in hitters' swings even as a little leaguer.

The best statistical argument for Gallen resides in Pitching+. It's always liked him, and in the second half of last season it liked him as much as Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes and Sandy Alcantara.

Age: 29

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 205.0 IP, 168 H (19 HR), 235 K, 29 BB, 3.25 ERA

Did you know that Aaron Nola trails only Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in rWAR dating back to 2017? We wouldn't lie to you, therefore you know it's true. It's also an actual fact.

You have to hand it to Nola just for having sustained despite having to pitch at Citizens Bank Park half the time. It sure looks like a bandbox. Plays like one, too.

As for what the man himself specifically does well, that's where you have to hand it to him for facing more batters than anyone not named Gerrit Cole since 2017 and, oh yeah, for being possibly the best command artist in MLB today.

Nola led all qualified hurlers last season in Location+, defined as a "count- and pitch type-adjusted judge of a pitcher's ability to put pitches in the right place." Pretty abstract, but even a highlight reel of Nola pitching will have anyone saying, "Ah, I see."

It likewise helps Nola's cause that his four-seamer, sinker and cutter are good pitches and that his knuckle-curveball is more like sublime. For him, "pitcher" seems as much an identity as a job title.

Age: 32

2022 Stats: 33 GS, 200.2 IP, 154 H (33 HR), 257 K, 50 BB, 3.50 ERA

Now that we're in Gerrit Cole's room, let's acknowledge that there's an elephant in here that concerns his enhanced hittability over the last season and a half:

• April 2018-May 2021: 2.59 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
• June 2021-Oct. 2022: 3.73 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.5 HR/9

Coincidence? Maybe...if you ignore the fact that June 2021 is when the league stepped in and took away his Spider Tack.

Elephants in rooms notwithstanding, however, Cole still leads all starters with 403 strikeouts since June 2021. He's clearly still doing something right, and that something can be summarized as "showering hitters in utterly filthy stuff."

To wit, Cole led all qualified starters in both Stuff+ and Pitching+ last season. Which tracks. His velocity and spin remain elite, after all, and nobody's ever been able to accuse him of being wild.

This leaves Cole's age as pretty much the only reason to be worried about him, but he hasn't exactly looked close to end of his prime this spring. In 16 innings, he's struck out 24 and walked one.

Age: 38

2022 Stats: 23 GS, 145.1 IP, 108 H (13 HR), 173 K, 24 BB, 2.29 ERA

Max Scherzer vs. Justin Verlander? Oof, that's a tough call. Luckily the Mets made it for us by tabbing Scherzer as their Opening Day starter.

What is there even left to say about Scherzer? The guy's a two-time Cy Young Award winner with two no-hitters and a 20-strikeout game on his record. He trails only Verlander on the active career strikeout list. He's going to be a Hall of Famer.

Ah, but he's also 38 years old. Somewhat evidently so, given that he's started to rack up nagging injuries. And as shocking as it sounds, he didn't rate that highly for Stuff+ last season.

Yet perhaps the best tell of Scherzer's dominance has always been his ability to overpower hitters in the strike zone. This ability was alive and well last season, as his rate of in-zone contact was nestled cozily in between those of Carlos Rodón and Shohei Ohtani.

It's almost as if he's aging gracefully, though you can also look and see how last year's fastball remained faster than even his career average for further evidence. More of the same thus seems a fair thing to expect for 2023.

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 28 GS, 166.0 IP, 124 H (14 HR), 219 K, 44 BB, 2.33 ERA

This is the obligatory moment where we stand, jaws agape, in awe at how one of baseball's best sluggers is also one of its best pitchers.

It's right there in how Shohei Ohtani ranks fifth with a 156 ERA+ among pitchers who've thrown at least 290 innings since 2021. But what's really exciting is that he's evolving.

It used to be that Ohtani stood out for his triple-digit four-seamer and devastating splitter. Those things still exist, but by the end of last year he was a five-pitch pitcher who favored his newly developed sinker over his four-seamer and his sweeper over his splitter.

To say that this worked would be a super-understatement. Ohtani capped what had already been a brilliant season on the mound with a 1.00 ERA, 52 strikeouts, 12 walks and 23 hits allowed over his last 45 innings.

The Angels will surely continue to be careful not to overwork Ohtani, who likely won't make more than 30 starts while pitching in a six-man rotation. But if it's a question of how good he can be in 2023, well, ask Mike Trout.

Age: 27

2022 Stats: 32 GS, 228.2 IP, 174 H (16 HR), 207 K, 50 BB, 2.28 ERA

Who says modern pitchers don't go deep into games anymore? Certainly not Sandy Alcantara, that's for sure.

He's the only pitcher to face at least 800 batters in each of the last three full seasons. And despite the fact he didn't get credit for one when he went nine innings in a contest that was decided in extra innings on July 8, the six complete games he pitched last season were still more than any other team.

Simply being an old-school workhorse would be enough to qualify Alcantara as one of baseball's best pitchers. He probably wouldn't be the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, however, if he didn't also have electrifying stuff and sharp command.

Alcantara finished last year ranked fifth in Stuff+ and tied for sixth in Location+. That he could eviscerate hitters with upper-90s four-seamers and sinkers was unfair. That his out pitch was a low-90s changeup worthy of peak Félix Hernández bordered on cruel.

Plus, you have to like a guy who knows the easiest outs are acquired via strikeouts, ground balls and pop-ups. In addition to his 207 strikeouts, he collected an MLB-high 312 outs on ground-outs and pop-outs last season.

Age: 28

2022 Stats: 33 GS, 202.0 IP, 144 H (23 HR), 243 K, 51 BB, 2.94 ERA

When Corbin Burnes moved from the bullpen into the Brewers rotation back on Aug. 18, 2020, it wasn't much more than a second chance after he had spectacularly bombed with an 8.82 ERA in 2019.

Well, now he's the best pitcher in baseball.

We're basing this assertion largely on Burnes' results since that fateful day in August 2020, as his 69 starts since then have yielded a 2.60 ERA and a league-high 14.2 fWAR. That he leads the NL with 541 strikeouts in this span is also a nice touch.

As for the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner's process, the newfangled metrics we've referenced here and there really like him. His stuff, especially, and his control just enough. His overall Pitching+ score for last year was second to only Gerrit Cole, and the difference with Burnes is that his home run rate doesn't give off a stink that undercuts the nerdy stuff.

Besides, bonus points are in order for how Burnes' cutter is the single best out pitch in baseball. This truth of this is debatable, but not the fact of it. Across the last two seasons, no single pitch has been responsible for more outs than his cutter.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.