5 MLB Teams That Will Surprise and 5 That Will Disappoint in 2023

Now that Opening Day is near and baseball fans have a decent understanding of the MLB landscape, it's fun to fire off a few predictions.

The World Baseball Classic has done a good job showcasing the game, but by next weekend its best players will be competing in the big leagues.

There are big roster changes each year from free-agent signings and blockbuster trades. We saw all of it this offseason, from Trea Turner signing with the Phillies, Dansby Swanson signing with the Cubs and Luiz Arraez being traded to the Marlins.

Let's take a look at five teams that will surprise and five that will disappoint. Teams that will surprise are projected to top their DraftKings Sportsbook over/under win total, and teams that will disappoint are projected to finish below their over/under.

The Marlins have relied on pitching as their strength for years, but this time around they made a significant upgrade to their lineup.

Adding AL batting champion Luis Arraez at second base and moving athletic All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field, where he's never played, is a fascinating defensive idea. What it should certainly do is make the Marlins better at the plate.

Miami had the fourth-lowest OPS, tied for the third-lowest batting average and scored the third-fewest runs last season. Elite pitching won't overcome that type of putrid offensive output.

Yet a lineup with a top four of Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Arraez and Garrett Cooper, who was a first-time All-Star last year, offers real potential.

Are they good enough to win a stacked division against three teams better than them? That would take a miracle, or disaster, depending on which team for which you root.

But scrappy enough to compete for one of those wild-card spots? Absolutely.

Once this Phillies team is whole, it should be able to compete with anybody. That's what it showed in last season's improbable run to the World Series.

Bryce Harper's elbow injury last April kept him from playing the outfield. But since the National League had just adopted the designated hitter, Harper was able to play a key role in the pennant race.

The issue for the Phillies now is how well they survive without the two-time MVP, who underwent Tommy John surgery last November. He's not expected to be fully healthy until early July with a hopeful return date around the All-Star break.

Not having him in the field is one thing, but going so long without his bat is entirely different. Will the addition of Trea Turner be enough to cushion the blow? Are younger players like Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott ready to take the next step?

The answers could be yes, but those questions are there.

The Phillies are also sorting out their fifth starter behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker.

If you look close enough, it's not difficult to see how the Cubs could be relevant this season.

Dansby Swanson is their marquee acquisition, but they also have a 27-year-old former MVP who is kind of a reclamation project. There's a chance Cody Bellinger reclaims his status as one of the game's better players with a change of scenery.

They also added solid veterans like Trey Mancini, Eric Hosmer and Tucker Barnhart. Jameson Taillon signed a four-year deal and will immediately improve Chicago's rotation.

The Cubs could benefit from being in a weak division, with only the St. Louis Cardinals as a true contender.

Similar to the Marlins, this team likely won't compete for a division title, but it should be in the wild-card race.

As fun as it was watching such a young team exceed expectations last season, it's fair to wonder how repeatable that success is.

Even with the additions of veteran catcher Mike Zunino and switch-hitting first baseman Josh Bell—both of whom should significantly bolster Cleveland's lineup—the betting odds point to the Guardians regressing from their 92-win total last season.

The Guardians have a lot of good going for them, with star third baseman José Ramirez signed to a long-term deal and a healthy farm system that produced for the big league club in 2022.

Remember, this team was just one game away from appearing in the ALCS.

The problem with early success is that it comes with expectations on the back end. Now that the Guardians are considered the AL Central's best team, which isn't saying much, there is more pressure for them to stay there.

The argument against them finishing with under 86.5 wins is a simple regression to the mean. Cleveland's pitching is solid but still doesn't have a ton of answers beyond Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber.

Arizona will again live in the shadows of the Dodgers and Padres, but this is no longer the pushover it was in 2020 and 2021.

The Diamondbacks saw a 22-game improvement last season, from a league-worst 52 wins in 2021 to 74 wins in 2022. They have an opportunity to be more than just two games better than that in 2023.

For starters, Zac Gallen is a serious NL Cy Young candidate. He was the most valuable pitcher in baseball during the second half of 2022. If he picks up where he left off, Arizona is in good shape.

This likely is not a strong enough team to make the postseason, but it could surprise post-All- Star break and find itself in the race for the final wild-card spot.

Similar to the Guardians, but even more so, Arizona boasts one of the game's most talented young core of prospects. It's not a matter of "if" but "when" the Diamondbacks take that leap.

Talk about expectations. They have to be through the roof in Queens right now. They won 101 games last season and kept the team most intact while adding AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander.

A move like that is supposed to put them over the top division rivals like Atlanta, which also won 101 games, and the Phillies, who made it to the World Series (against Verlander's Astros).

The Mets have the highest payroll in baseball by a mile this year. That's not Mets owner Steve Cohen paying for a nice, 90-win story, or simply a competitive team.

Verlander is 40 and Max Scherzer turns 39 in July. It's risky relying so heavily on such older players. The Mets are also going without closer Edwin Díaz, who suffered a torn patellar tendon in his right knee during the World Baseball Classic.

The obvious goal when a team goes all in like this is to win it all. Between a vaunted division and what would be waiting for them in the AL, it's still a tremendous long shot for the Mets.

It's not that bold to think one of these NL East juggernauts misses the postseason entirely. It'd be most disappointing, though, if it were the Mets.

Remember when the White Sox were good and promising?

It wasn't that long ago.

They realized after the pandemic-shortened 2020 season that Rick Renteria wasn't the manager to get them over the hump.

But instead of hiring a worthwhile replacement, the White Sox dug into an old bag of tricks and hired Tony La Russa. That resulted in one forgettable trip to the ALDS in 2021 and a complete collapse in 2022.

They lost franchise icon Jose Abreu to the World Series champions in free agency, another blow to a franchise that has seen plenty over the last couple of years.

Here's the thing, though: The White Sox are still talented and promising. Andrew Vaughn is expected to assume Abreu's role at first base, clearing the logjam they had in left field. Tim Anderson is healthy again.

It's still the team that a year ago most expected to be the class of the AL Central, only now under different management.

Dodgers fans are becoming all too familiar with disappointment.

For all of their success over the past decade, the Dodgers have come up short except for the pandemic season when they won the World Series on an abbreviated schedule at a neutral site.

This season, they have serious questions to answer after key losses in the offseason. They lost both Turners—Trea and Justin—the latter of whom had diminished as a player.

J.D. Martinez is a nice option as the everyday DH but creates a complication with getting at-bats for Will Smith when he's not catching.

The pitching is some of the best in baseball, but health concerns remain with an aging Clayton Kershaw and the addition of Noah Syndergaard.

The Blue Jays keep inching closer to AL supremacy with each season. They missed the postseason in 2021, despite winning 91 games in a stacked AL East.

Last season, 92 wins was just good enough to get them the top wild-card spot. Toronto was unceremoniously swept by the Mariners in the Wild Card Round, capped by a seven-run comeback that was the second-largest in MLB postseason history in Game 2.

Then Toronto addressed all of its needs in the offseason. What had been a right-handed heavy lineup now features Daulton Varsho, Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier.

A rotation in desperate need of another arm now has Chris Bassitt behind Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and José Berríos.

Most projections have the Blue Jays winning around 90 games, but they could surprise and win the AL East with the best record in baseball.

Like their New York counterpart, there's a lot of boom-or-bust potential with the Yankees.

This offense relied heavily on home runs, leading MLB with 254 last season. But when power failed them, the Yankees were not impressive. Their .549 OPS in the postseason was the worst of any team that played more than two postseason games.

Of course, we also saw them be dominant during stretches of 2022, and they were aggressive in the offseason by extending Aaron Judge and signing Carlos Rodón.

Their stars are exceptional, but the question for the Yankees lies in their supporting cast.

Is a rotation anchored by Gerrit Cole and Rodón (who is on the injured list) enough if there are health concerns with Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes, especially with Frankie Montas out for months due to shoulder surgery?

Aaron Hicks, Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo all struggled at various points last season, and DJ LeMahieu has an injury history.

The Blue Jays appear to have closed the gap between themselves and the Yankees.

Stats via FanGraphs and Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.