Fantasy Baseball 2023: Sleepers, Busts and Final MLB Mock Draft
The opening pitch of the 2023 MLB season will be tossed one week from now.
In other words, it's cram-session season in the fantasy baseball world.
While you probably (hopefully?) have some plan of attack for your upcoming draft, there's no such thing as being too informed about this year's player pool.
So, let's cannonball back into that pool with a two-round mock draft, plus a pair of sleepers to target and busts to avoid.
Two-Round, 12-Team Points Mock Draft
Round 1
1. Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels
2. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees
3. Juan Soto, OF, San Diego Padres
4. José Ramírez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
5. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees
6. Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
8. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Mookie Betts, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
10. Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves
11. Yordan Álvarez, OF, Houston Astros
12. Sandy Alcántara, SP, Miami Marlins
Round 2
13. Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres
14. Trea Turner, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
15. Justin Verlander, SP, New York Mets
16. Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves
17. Julio Rodríguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
18. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
19. Max Scherzer, SP, New York Mets
20. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
21. Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
22. Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
23. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
24. Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Sleepers
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
Kelenic has been one of the top prospects in all of baseball in recent years, and his minor-league production shows why. In 86 Triple-A games last season, he had a .295/.365/.557 slash line with 18 homers, nine steals and 123 combined runs and RBI.
He has yet to translate that production to the big leagues, where he's only a .168/.251/.338 hitter over 147 games, but that doesn't mean he can't do that at some point. He is, after all, just 23 years old and overloaded with power-plus-speed potential. He's also been raking all spring. One of these seasons, it's all going to click for him, and if that's this year, he could be the biggest steal of draft season.
Amed Rosario, SS, Cleveland Guardians
Rosario feels a little boring at this point, but boring is fine if it's undervalued. That can absolutely be the case here, so long as Rosario keeps hitting in front of José Ramírez, who's one of the league's best hitters and run producers.
Rosario scored 86 runs last season, and a 100-run effort hardly feels out of the question. For that matter, a 20-homer, 20-steal effort doesn't feel impossible, either. He has swiped at least 18 bags in three different seasons and clubbed double-digit homers in three of the last four seasons.
Busts
Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers
The bust label feels strange to drop on deGrom, since he's probably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy. But that whole "when healthy" qualifier looms large here since he hardly ever is. And if he's not taking the mound often, he has no chance to deliver anything close to a respectable return on investment.
He had 26 starts and pitched 156.1 innings over the last two seasons combined while battling elbow and shoulder injuries. He'll turn 35 this season. Is there any reason to think his medical maladies will suddenly disappear? He'd be a fantasy juggernaut if they did, but there's too much risk to take that plunge.
Jon Berti, 2B/3B, Miami Marlins
Berti swiped a Major League-leading 41 bags last season. As a stolen base threat, few can match his potential.
But he's a one-category specialist, and with the rules changes perhaps coaxing more steals out of everyone, that category may not be as important as it was. Plus, Berti needs volume to make good on his specialty, and that's hardly guaranteed with Miami having other options up the middle, like Luis Arráez, Jean Segura and Joey Wendle. Avoid Berti on draft day and any other steals specialists for that matter.