1 MLB Team From Each Division That Will Exceed Expectations in 2023

Opening Day for the 2023 MLB season is so close that we can taste it.

(Mmm, delicious, preposterously overpriced hot dogs and beers.)

But while we put our final bows on spring training, there's a little time left to bet on preseason win totals.

Hurry up, though. The pitch clock is ticking.

For what it's worth, betting win totals is fun but tricky and probably ill-advised. One or two injuries can derail an entire campaign, and for some teams, it all boils down to whether they can win a potentially meaningless series at the end of the season.

Nevertheless, I've talked myself into all six of these being wise investments.

Win totals are from DraftKings and were last updated Tuesday afternoon.

The Options: Baltimore (76.5), Boston (78.5), New York (93.5), Tampa Bay (88.5), Toronto (91.5)

The Pick: New York Yankees over 93.5 wins

It's hard to fathom why the Yankees' win total is this low.

Excluding the 60-game 2020 season, the Yankees have won at least 99 games in three of the past four years. If you want to go back further than that, they've won at least 94 games in 17 out of 25 (non-pandemic) seasons dating back to 1997.

Then there's the new schedule, where instead of 76 games against the best division in baseball*, the Yankees only need to deal with their AL East rivals a combined 52 times. In place of 12 postseason-caliber games against the Rays and Blue Jays, they'll get three-game series against each of Arizona, Colorado, Miami and Washington that weren't on the schedule in 2022.

That's a pretty sweet trade-off for "Yankees over 93.5 wins" bettors.

The only way this line should be this low is if you believe the Yankees are going to be at least six wins worse than they were last season. While that certainly could be the case, what's the justification for taking that stance?

Once Carlos Rodón gets healthy, he'll be an upgrade over Jameson Taillon in what might be the best starting rotation in baseball. They didn't add any hitters via free agency, but they also didn't lose any of last year's nine leaders in plate appearances. They also figure to get much more this season out of Oswaldo Cabrera and soon-to-be rookie sensation Anthony Volpe.

Unless Aaron Judge has just a disastrous "falling back to earth" 2023 campaign, the Yankees should win at least 100 games.

*This isn't even debatable, because the combined win totals for the six divisions are: AL East (428.5), NL West (411.5) NL East (410.5), AL West (408.5), AL Central (391.5), NL Central (385.5)

The Options: Chicago (82.5), Cleveland (86.5), Detroit (69.5), Kansas City (69.5), Minnesota (83.5)

The Pick: Cleveland Guardians over 86.5 wins

Cleveland had perhaps the most uneventful offseason of any MLB team. The Guardians made one significant splash by bringing in Josh Bell on a two-year, $33 million deal, and that's about it.

But when all that you lost from a 92-win roster was a pair of catchers who hit a combined .185 (Austin Hedges and Luke Maile) and a relief pitcher who posted a 5.40 ERA (Bryan Shaw), you can somewhat afford to do a whole lot of nothing for five months.

Cleveland also boasts one of MLB's best farm systems, with four hitters and four pitchers who could make a tangible impact as early as this season. With a pipeline that rich, there's no sense in going out and overspending on some veteran free agents.

Once again, though, we do need to point out the schedule change.

Playing fewer games within the division is a big boost for the Yankees, but it might be an issue for the Guardians. It's bad enough that Cleveland gets six fewer games against each of Detroit and Kansas City, but replacing those games with series against the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Cardinals makes matters even worse.

Still, this team should win at least 87 games.

The Guardians solved what was a season-long DH issue with the Bell signing, and Aaron Civale should bounce back from what the his peripherals suggest was a brutally unlucky 4.92 ERA in 2022. If he's a solid fourth starter and if Bell provides some slugging for a team that had little of it last year, 90 wins and another division title will be well within grasp.

The Options: Houston (95.5), Los Angeles (82.5), Oakland (60.5), Seattle (87.5), Texas (82.5)

The Pick: Texas Rangers over 82.5 wins

During the 2021-22 offseason, Texas focused on upgrading its bats, committing $500 million to Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. It worked. Four Rangers—those two plus Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis García—clubbed at least 25 home runs each, and the Rangers increased their run total from 625 in 2021 to 707 in last year.

This offseason, the Rangers put a lot of money toward improving their pitching. Jacob deGrom was the marquee addition, but they also signed Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney, brought back Martín Pérez on a one-year deal and traded for Jake Odorizzi.

Add Jon Gray to that mix and the possibility of 2021 No. 2 overall pick Jack Leiter getting the call before the end of the season, and Texas is in unfamiliar territory with possibly too many starting pitchers.

Speaking of top prospects, the Rangers also have 3B Josh Jung, who has been raking this spring after getting a little taste of the majors as a September call-up. If he's ready to man the hot corner at the MLB level on an everyday basis, the Rangers might have the best hitting infield in the big leagues.

If you don't want any part of "Rangers +850 to win AL West" because of the inevitability that the big, bad Astros cruise to yet another division crown, that's totally understandable. But this feels like a team ready to make the proverbial leap.

Texas hasn't posted a winning record since 2016, but it has invested a ton of money into putting an end to that drought. The same goes for the Angels, but they've been spending like this for a while now. Texas has a bunch of shiny new pieces that could/should coalesce for a postseason berth.

The Options: Atlanta (94.5), Miami (76.5), New York (91.5), Philadelphia (88.5), Washington (59.5)

The Pick: New York Mets over 91.5 wins

This one is a bit terrifying, because the Mets are an old team that is already dealing with injuries.

Edwin Díaz is expected miss the entire season as a result of the knee injury he suffered in the World Baseball Classic. They're also going to be without left-handed starting pitcher José Quintana until at least July as he recovers from a bone-graft surgery to repair a stress fracture in his rib cage. Compared to those injuries, Brandon Nimmo missing most of spring training with ankle and knee sprains seems pretty minor, but it's still concerning.

And the biggest concern when Steve Cohen initially put this $336 million roster together was whether 40-year-old Justin Verlander and 38-year-old Max Scherzer would be able to make it through the season without any lengthy trips to the IL. So far, that dynamic duo has been healthy (and dominant in the spring), but we shall see.

Still, 91.5 wins? That's it?

The Mets won 101 games last season without the luxury of playing any games against the AL Central. We're supposed to believe they're going to suffer at least 10 more losses while getting 15 games against that division?

The Mets' pitching staff does look a lot different than it did in 2022, and the bullpen could be a legitimate Achilles' heel as they adjust to life without Díaz, Trevor Williams, Trevor May, Mychal Givens and Joely Rodriguez.

As long as Verlander and Scherzer stay moderately healthy, though, this team is winning at least 92 games. There's too much money being spent on too much talent for the Mets to flirt with missing the postseason.

Excluding 2020, the team with the highest Opening Day payroll (per The Baseball Cube) has won at least 92 games in 16 out of the past 20 seasons, with an average total of 97.25 wins. The Mets have the highest Opening Day payroll by nearly $70 million.

If the Mets don't win at least 92 games, it would be an all-time embarrassment.

The Options: Chicago (77.5), Cincinnati (65.5), Milwaukee (85.5), Pittsburgh (68.5), St. Louis (88.5)

The Pick: Chicago Cubs over 77.5 wins

Say this much for the Cubs: They've cornered the market on bounce-back candidates.

They got Cody Bellinger on a one-year, $17.5 million deal after three tough seasons in Los Angeles. They also signed Tucker Barnhart to a two-year, $6.5 million deal after a brutal 2022 campaign in Detroit, Trey Mancini for a pair of $7 million seasons after a brutal second half of last season in Houston and Eric Hosmer for the league minimum while the Padres are forced to pay the vast majority of the three-year, $39 million option that he exercised in November.

If any of those four guys pan out, the Cubs have a chance to finish .500. If all four somehow bounce back to playing like they did in years past, the Cubs could mess around and win the NL Central.

Because while the pitching staff is lacking in star power, the Cubs do have solid arms.

Once Kyle Hendricks (shoulder) is healthy in a month or so, one could do a whole lot worse than a "big three" of Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Hendricks. Justin Steele had a breakout 2022 campaign and should be a strong fourth starter. Drew Smyly had a renaissance year of his own and would be an outstanding No. 5 starter if he repeats it. Hayden Wesneski has some promise as the likely fill-in until Hendricks returns. Plus, there's the option of moving Keegan Thompson back to a starting gig, although his velocity this spring has been a "Will he even make the Opening Day roster?" issue.

And, of course, there was the Dansby Swanson signing.

The Cubs won 74 games last season with gaping holes at both first and second base. Now they have a pair of respectable options at first (Hosmer and Mancini), a reigning All-Star and Gold Glove recipient at shortstop (Swanson) whose arrival allows Nico Hoerner to move back to second base, and an improved starting rotation with the Taillon signing.

The Cubs might not be a postseason team, but they've improved by at least four wins, right?

The Options: Arizona (75.5), Colorado (65.5), Los Angeles (95.5), San Diego (93.5), San Francisco (81.5)

The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks over 75.5 wins

Arizona won 74 games last season, and in our 2023 season projections from back in early November, I liked the Diamondbacks to win 86 games this year. After all, they brought back almost everyone from a roster that went 35-36 over its final 71 games.

That was before they traded Daulton Varsho to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in a deal that pretty much everyone agreed Arizona won. It was also before the D-Backs signed Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro and possible closer Scott McGough in an effort to improve a bullpen that FanGraphs rated as the worst in the majors in 2022, as well as veteran third baseman Evan Longoria to add a "clubhouse guy" to what is otherwise a pretty young group of hitters.

And they only need 76 wins to hit the over? Yeah, sign me up.

Like the Yankees, Arizona should benefit from the new schedule. The Diamondbacks do now need to deal with the AL East, but getting 12 fewer games against the Dodgers and Padres—against whom they went a combined 10-28 last season—will be a refreshing change of pace.

But even without trying to account for that schedule wrinkle, there's a lot to like here.

Nick Ahmed is back at shortstop after missing 90 percent of last season because of injuries. Top prospect/late-2022 call-ups OF Corbin Carroll and RHP Drey Jameson will now be staples in the lineup/rotation. And if Moreno is anything close to as good as advertised as the primary catcher (with Carson Kelly out indefinitely with a fractured forearm), even better.

Like the Cubs, the Diamondbacks probably won't make the playoffs. But also like the Cubs, the Diamondbacks should at least be a few wins better than they were last season.

Kerry Miller covers Major League Baseball and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @KerranceJames

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