2023 UEFA Champions League Semifinals Predictions

Four teams remain in the 2022-23 Champions League.

On one side, we have expectant juggernauts Real Madrid and Manchester City, a new rivalry between two clubs that will see anything other than winning the competition as a failure.

On the other side, Milan and Inter, old foes from the same city. A couple of months ago, both will have just been happy to still be in the running. Now they're competing to shock the world.

Four possible finalists. One set of predictions. Let's go...

Setting the Scene

The two remaining favourites for the competition head into their semifinal clash with very different histories.

Real Madrid are, of course, the Champions League's most successful club, with an incredible 14 titles—double that of nearest competitors Milan. City are still yet to break their duck, despite the lofty expectations that have come with the endless financial backing of the last 15 years.

That said, it's Pep Guardiola's side that head into this showdown in the most buoyant mood. City are unbeaten in 20 matches across all competitions and have looked a world away from every team they've faced recently.

They've obliterated Arsenal's huge lead atop the Premier League and are now comfortable in their quest to retain the domestic crown. They've strolled to the FA Cup final. The bankrolling of a superstar squad, manager and facilities has the City project reaching its defining moment: a historic treble that includes their first European triumph.

Madrid got through a difficult Copa del Rey final against Osasuna on Saturday, a victory that arguably raised more doubts over their capability to outlast City over two legs. Osasuna managed 15 shots on goal and were an unfortunate drop of the ball away from avoiding Rodrygo's second strike in Madrid's 2-1 win.

It's a trophy that takes pressure off their poor La Liga season, but in all honesty, Los Blancos need to win the Champions League once more if this is to be deemed a successful year.

Winners find a way–a notion that Madrid sparked up in neon lights last season–but this City beast is the most formidable and in-form side they've faced all season.

The short answer here is likely a resounding "no." Perhaps the more pertinent question is, "Can Madrid Stop Erling Haaland Enough?"

Haaland blanked in City's 2-1 victory over Leeds United on Saturday but missed multiple opportunities he'd usually gobble up and selflessly allowed İlkay Gündoğan to take a penalty for his potential hat-trick. The midfielder missed, Pep got mad, and Haaland will be back on spot-kicks from now on.

It's remarkable to think the last time Haaland went two games without a goal contribution was during the back-to-back 1-1 draws with Nottingham Forest and RB Leipzig at the end of February, a moment when City weren't playing as sublimely as they are now.

He is likely to impact the score against Madrid, but can Carlo Ancelotti employ a game plan that limits his contribution while also maintaining a threat of their own?

The Osasuna game won't have helped doubters. Madrid were slow to fill gaps on the edge of their box, conceding a Lucas Torró banger that wouldn't have happened if he was properly closed down.

When you consider how free-flowing City's approach play is across the width of the pitch in the attacking third, Haaland may find it simple to spot the space that has led to him breaking numerous records this campaign. It's a conundrum few have solved, especially across 180 minutes.

Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo were Madrid's life force against Osasuna, and indeed, they have excelled through the Champions League this season.

Vini's dribbling ability and incision in one-on-one duels should be Pep's biggest headache; especially if the City boss continues to employ a back three with two defensive midfielders sat in front of them.

Vini is likely to be in direct competition with Kyle Walker after Nathan Aké exited the Leeds game injured, an enforced change that could prove pivotal.

On paper, Walker is more suited to halting the Brazilian due to his speed, but he's not as tactically astute as his Dutch colleague and is far more prone to leaving spaces as he forays forward.

Pep may need to push John Stones, who is now deployed in midfield, over to double up on Vinicius and cut off the supply chain he lays on for Karim Benzema and Rodrygo's onrushing runs into the box.

How Pep deals with Madrid's width will have a major bearing on how the rest of the pitch plays out. If Madrid can keep dragging City's central players wide, they may find unexpected time on the ball in the middle. How often Federico Valverde can stretch his legs in these spaces will directly impact the odds of Madrid grabbing victory.

While Vini's directness is a key weapon, Rodrygo's runs on the other side continue to prove valuable. He needs to be brave and not allow himself to get pinned back; if Vinicius is on the ball and committing his marker, Rodrygo must follow in behind Benzema and be ready for the type of finish that saw him sink Chelsea and Osasuna.

Let's not forget, Pep has a tendency to get weird in big Champions League matches. You wouldn't even be surprised if he ditches City's recent three-at-the-back formation for something different, such is his willingness to tinker in an attempt to isolate danger.

The point remains: Snuff out Vini Jr. and significantly defuse the most explosive part of the Spanish side's arsenal.

Prediction: Manchester City to advance to the final

So much about Madrid and City, but on the other side of the draw there's two of Italy's most storied clubs.

Granted, whoever reaches the final out of Milan and Inter will be expected to lose against either of the teams from the other semifinal. But Champions League wins are often about momentum and coming into form at the right time, something both of these teams know a little about right now.

The San Siro clubs both dispatched major rivals from the capital on the weekend, with Milan defeating Lazio 2-0 and Inter slaying Roma by the same scoreline.

Milan are unbeaten in nine games—mightily impressive when you consider they've faced Napoli three times and both Rome-based teams in that time. Inter are on a six-game winning streak and will be amped to see goals flying in from everywhere: Edin Džeko, Lautaro Martinez and Romelu Lukaku have all found the net recently.

A quick word on two massively in-form full-backs for this one. Théo Hernandez and Federico Dimarco are box-office players, both of whom scored last time out (Hernandez's was stunning). Their desire to burst forward could cause havoc of the most entertaining kind, adding more numbers into the box and leaving gaps open on the counter.

How will Milan deal with the likes of Nicolò Barella making late runs from midfield? Can Inter sustain their threat while shutting down Rafael Leão's pace? It's going to be tight and absolutely fascinating.

Prediction: Milan to reach the Champions League final