College World Series 2023: Final Predictions for LSU vs. Florida Game 3
The 2023 College World Series champion will be determined on Monday night.
The Florida Gators forced Game 3 of the championship series with a 24-4 victory over the LSU Tigers.
LSU opened the best-of-three series with a one-run victory in 11 innings on Saturday night, and it might be favored to win Game 3 because of what pitching it has left.
Potential No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could pitch inside TD Ameritrade Ballpark in Omaha, Nebraska.
Skenes tossed 120 pitches on Thursday to get LSU past the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and into the championship round.
Florida at least has the edge in momentum after its incredible Game 2 output, and that could help it take advantage of Skenes, or whoever toes the rubber for the Tigers.
Will Paul Skenes Pitch for LSU?
Skenes' Game 3 availability dominated the conversation in Omaha well before Game 2 ended because of Florida's blowout.
LSU's right-handed ace was not available for Games 1 or 2 because of his Thursday outing against Wake Forest.
The Tigers have the option of giving the ball to Skenes on three days rest, but that has not been finalized yet.
LSU manager Jay Johnson told reporters on Sunday that the staff's process to determine its available pitchers will not happen until Monday, per The Advocate's Leah Vann.
"As I talked about last time, we do a process to figure that out which doesn't take place until day of the game. I mean, you're going on game 8 in 10 days so we have to be mindful of all that," Johnson said.
Johnson has to manage the want to win a national title while also not risking Skenes' long-term future. The Air Force transfer will likely be a top-five pick on July 9 in the MLB draft.
Skenes could pitch in a limited role on Monday as a two-or-three-inning starter, a bridge man between starter and reliever, or as the closer in the final few frames.
The rest of LSU's pitching staff is in decent shape, so LSU does not have to solely rely on Skenes in Game 3.
The Tigers only used Ty Floyd and Riley Cooper over 11 innings in Game 1, and no reliever pitched more than two innings in Game 2. Only the final two relievers on Sunday recorded more than 40 pitches.
LSU would love to have Skenes throw six or seven shutout innings to propel them to the national championship, but if he only makes a brief appearance, Johnson has options to build a path to victory.
Can Florida Carry Offensive Momentum into Game 3?
Florida did not stop scoring on Sunday.
The Gators finished off their Game 2 victory with 16 runs in the final four innings.
They have 29 total hits off the LSU pitching staff in Omaha, while the Tigers have 11 fewer base knocks.
The No. 2 overall seed in the NCAA baseball tournament can ride that wave of momentum no matter if Skenes is on the mound or not.
Florida can make Skenes look human, if he starts, because he is on short rest at the end of an arduous stretch for both teams that began four weeks ago.
Jac Caglianone, who went 3-for-6 with five RBI in Game 2, will likely start on the mound for the Gators. He will be on four days rest. He threw 85 pitches over 4.1 innings on Wednesday.
At minimum, Caglianone needs to match what the LSU starter does over the first five innings, and if he keeps the Tigers bats at bay, Florida could open up a nice advantage.
Wyatt Langford, who could join Skenes and LSU outfielder Dylan Crews in the top five of the MLB draft, will be vital again at the dish for Florida.
Langford went 5-for-5 with six RBI in Game 2, and if he gets on base early and often again on Monday, the Gators could have a few extended rallies.
Prediction
Florida 7, LSU 4
Florida possesses the fresher starting pitcher and the better lineup over two games.
The Gators have an opportunity to get up early behind Caglianone and not concede that advantage.
Florida's pitching staff has not allowed more than five runs in a single NCAA tournament game.
LSU's arms were equally as impressive in Omaha before Sunday's 24-4 defeat. The Tigers allowed 11 runs over their six previous contests.
Monday's contest will be the eighth in 10 days for the Tigers, and time could catch up to their arms by the end of Game 3.
Florida will be playing in its sixth game in Omaha, and its fresher pitching staff could take over in the later innings to close out the national championship.