NFL Teams That Must Consider Tanking for Caleb Williams in 2024 Draft as Top Priority

Tanking in the NFL is a taboo subject. It's not nearly as accepted as a form toward team improvement as it is in the NBA, for example. No league openly encourages the approach, yet the course of action is not without precedent nor completely forsaken as a legitimate possibility within closed rooms, depending on the available talent.

The 2024 NFL draft expects to feature a franchise-changing quarterback at the top of its class.

"[Caleb] Williams is Patrick Mahomes," an anonymous NFL general manager told ESPN's Matt Miller, "but we didn't know Mahomes was him yet [when he was drafted in 2017]."

A scout took the topic a step further when that evaluator told Miller, "He has the potential to be a guy owners want to lose [games] in December [to be able to draft]."

To be clear, those 53 men and coaches, who take the field win in and week out, are playing to win. However, all of them can be undercut to some degree by those not actively trying to win in the short term, i.e. ownership or front office personnel, with an eye toward the future.

Obviously, the start of the 2023 campaign is still two months away. However, seven franchise aren't in position to win at a high level because of their current quarterback situations and should consider the possibility of what it might take to land Williams.

The Arizona Cardinals are staring down the possibility of owning next year's No. 1 overall draft pick as starting quarterback Kyler Murray continues to recover from a mid-December ACL tear—which means he may miss time during the 2023 regular season—and the team's roster is easily counted among the league's worst.

Considering those circumstances, plus the fact the Cardinals are now led by a new general manager in Monti Ossenfort and head coach in Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals should already be looking toward their next step as an organization.

Murray's contract isn't the obstacle many probably assume it is.

Despite signing a five-year, $230.5 million extension before last season, the Cardinals can cut or trade the '19 No. 1 overall pick and actually save money toward the '24 salary cap. In a potential trade, Arizona can offload $38.9 million after the calendar turns to June, according to Over The Cap. Whereas an outright release with a June 1 designation still saves the team $3.6 million.

Even if the the latter manifests itself, the remaining portion of Murray's '24 figure plus an incoming No. 1 overall pick's initial presents a salary-cap increase of approximately $4 million beyond what Cardinals accounting already expects.

Arizona made a similar decision four years ago when the front office decided Murray was a better prospect than Josh Rosen, whom the team selected with the 10th overall pick a year prior. If Ossenfort and Gannon determine that Williams is superior to Murray, the former is the right choice for a team in the midst of a massive rebuild.

This year's Atlanta Falcons will serve as a case study of what or what not to do at the quarterback position.

Desmond Ridder has already been the named the starter, with public support from team owner Arthur Blank.

"We're very excited about Desmond Ridder," Blank told reporters in February. "I think from the time he came into training camp, he showed great capabilities as a leader amongst the rookies and then amongst the vets."

Interestingly, the organization chose to build around last year's third-round pick instead of trying to outright replace him or at least provide legitimate competition this offseason. General manager Terry Fontenot continued with his plan to build the best possible cockpit for whomever lines up behind center.

In three straight draft classes, the Falcons chose skill position performers among the Top 10, starting with tight end Kyle Pitts, then wide receiver Drake London and finally running back Bijan Robinson.

Atlanta also fortified its trenches by signing right guard Chris Lindstrom to a record-setting five-year, $102.5 million contract extension, re-signing right tackle Kaleb McGary and drafting Matthew Bergeron to immediately compete at left guard.

Despite all of these steps, the Falcons may be delaying the inevitable.

Fontenot and Co. can't operate as if a recent third-round pick is the solution to their problems. If Ridder tears it up during his sophomore campaign, that's great. But the organization must currently look at the best possible path toward winning championships, which is upgrading at quarterback by any means necessary.

The Las Vegas Raiders are due for a hard reset.

The organization hasn't selected a first-round quarterback since the failed JaMarcus Russell experiment in 2007. Only three other franchises—the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks—currently hold longer streaks. The difference between the Raiders and the other examples is the latter found legitimate standouts through others means, whether by drafting a Russell Wilson/Dak Prescott in the mid-rounds or signing Drew Brees in free agency.

Derek Carr started for the Raiders over the last nine seasons. But the team never fully bought into Carr. Too often, the Raiders' decision-makers were linked to other possibilities. This past season reached a boiling point when head coach Josh McDaniels benched the incumbent, which began the process of an inevitable divorce.

With Carr's release, the Raiders turned to another veteran with a solid career but middling ability. Jimmy Garoppolo signed a three-year, $72.8 million free-agent contract, though the 31-year-old signal-caller continues to recover from last season's foot injury.

Garoppolo is a solid starter, who executes within the offensive structure. Concern stems from what he provides beyond that point, especially in a division that features Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and even Russell Wilson. The Raiders aren't going to grain ground in the division—let alone a loaded conference—when they're constantly operating at a deficiency.

The Raiders should be looking at an extreme approach. Start Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell for a season and see what happens. The move could be the best thing for long-term sustainability by grabbing an extremely valuable draft pick.

The Minnesota Vikings didn't operate like a reigning division winner this offseason. General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah took the opposite approach and began to deconstruct last season's NFC North champs.

Adofo-Mensah either released, traded or didn't re-sign running Dalvin Cook, wide receiver Adam Thielen, defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson, edge-defender Za'Darius Smith, linebacker Eric Kendricks and cornerbacks Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson.

In doing so, the team no longer features last season's leading rusher, second-leading receiver, leading tackler, a 10-sack pass-rusher, co-leader in interceptions and starting nickel corner.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins remains the primary sticking point, though. While the roster around the 34-year-old veteran drastically changes, Cousins serves as an anchor to the ship the Vikings are trying to row ashore.

Cousins is a competent quarterback. The four-time Pro Bowl selection operates proficiently within an offense's structure. Therein lies the problem. He does exactly what's asked of him. Nothing more, nothing less. As a result, the Vikings are a product of what's schemed and what those around Cousins are capable of once the ball is in their hands.

In a world where the quarterback position evolved into what an individual can add beyond what's scripted, Cousins is a throwback. He can do enough for a team to compete and even win a division crown. Yet his teams have never gotten further than a divisional playoff contest.

Furthermore, Cousins and the Vikings are approaching a crossroads, since the quarterback is a free agent after the upcoming season. Adofo-Mensah should expedite the process and enter a full-blown rebuild by moving on from Cousins sooner rather than later.

This year's Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be defined by whether the season becomes Baker Mayfield's redemption arc or his last ride.

Granted, the team currently has an ongoing competition between the 2018 first overall draft pick and third-year veteran Kyle Trask, whom the Bucs selected with the 64th overall pick from the '21 class.

Considering Mayfield's background and pedigree, he is the favorite to win the job.

"I feel comfortable with where I'm at right now," Mayfield told reporters last month. "Now, it's about making sure that my comfortability resonates with everyone else. That is the quarterback's job, is to make sure everybody gets on the same page and make sure we breathe that confidence throughout the whole team. I feel good with where I am at right now, but there is obviously always room to improve."

Mayfield says he feels "revitalized" after last year's stint with the Los Angeles Rams.

However, the Buccaneers organization can't overlook the fact he's with his fourth squad in a little over a year. The Cleveland Browns chose to move on from a player who helped get them to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years, to not making it through an entire season with the Carolina Panthers, to becoming a mid-season spot starter for the Rams.

Tampa Bay currently has lottery tickets posing as quarterbacks. An actual draft investment is a far more rational approach to addressing the position than hoping Mayfield will recapture his earlier magic (or Trask outperforms his draft status).

The Washington Commanders are all-in with Sam Howell for this season. The fact the last part of the statement must be added says everything about the situation.

The Commanders are set to hand Howell—a 2022 fifth-round draft selection, with one career start—the starting job based on what they initially saw from the rookie.

"Towards the end of the season last season we started seeing some real positive signs that really showed he is very confident and comfortable," Rivera said, per ESPN's John Keim. "A couple of times some things happened in practice and you would see him fix it himself. That was always something that you look for. He was doing things like that probably mid to end of the season so we felt really comfortable about it."

Late-round draft picks have emerged as franchise-caliber options, of course. Tom Brady is the shining example. The San Francisco 49ers seem to have found another in Brock Purdy. But the odds are generally against those who aren't first-round selections because top picks tend to receiver more opportunities.

Make no mistake, the Commanders aren't going to give Howell another year if he fails miserably this season. He fell into Day 3 of the '23 draft for multiple reasons. He needs to show consistency within a pro scheme. From there, he will have a chance. Until then, the Commanders are a rudderless organization that can be competitive yet clearly behind the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants in their own division.