Overhyped or Underrated? Offseason Buzz Meter for Potential NFL Contenders in 2023

We've had months to digest every NFL team's offseason moves and a few weeks to note the progress that players have made with their teammates through spring practices. Yet the public and oddsmakers have missed the mark on a handful of potential postseason contenders.

While the playoff hype around the Detroit Lions and New York Jets seems justified because of how they finished the 2022 season or went about improving their rosters in the offseason, two teams in the AFC are clearly headed for regression.

As for teams that deserve more mentions in the playoff discussion, you can count on a couple of clubs rising up from the bottom of a division to make the postseason like the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks did last year.

We used DraftKings' odds (to make the playoffs) to distinguish overhyped and overrated teams and assessed each squad on a buzz meter from one (underrated) to 10 (overhyped). If you're a betting person, take heed to these warnings or jump on some wagers with great value.

Odds to Make Playoffs: -165

The Baltimore Ravens will go through significant changes on the offensive side of the ball, which may result in a slow start to the 2023 campaign.

The Ravens parted ways with offensive coordinator Greg Roman and hired Todd Monken in his place. On one hand, Monken molded Georgia's offense into a top-10 scoring unit in the collegiate ranks between 2021 and 2022. On the other hand, he led a Cleveland Browns offense that ranked 22nd in scoring and total yards in 2019.

This time around the NFL landscape, Monken will have a much better quarterback than Baker Mayfield with Lamar Jackson under center, but we shouldn't expect Baltimore's offense to click right away. Other than All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, Ravens pass-catchers must clear some hurdles to get on the same page with Jackson.

In April, Baltimore signed wideout Odell Beckham Jr., who hasn't played since Super Bowl 56. He's coming off his second ACL tear in three years. The 30-year-old receiver must build a rapport with Jackson while knocking off a lot of rust.

Wide receiver Rashod Bateman will also have to work himself back into playing shape. He suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury in October of last year. The third-year receiver missed spring practices after taking a cortisone-type shot in his foot. In two seasons, Bateman has missed 16 games.

Rookie wideout Zay Flowers has an obvious learning curve in a transition from college to the pros. He's an explosive playmaker, but Monken may need some time to figure out how to fully unlock his dynamic skill set.

Remember, the Ravens defense had its hiccups under a new coordinator last year.

After a year on the college level at Michigan, Mike MacDonald went back to Baltimore where he served as an intern, defensive assistant, defensive backs coach and linebackers coach, but he didn't have a seamless return.

The Ravens finished with the 26th-ranked pass defense. They're going into the upcoming campaign without their 2022 sack leader, Justin Houston, which raises questions about the defensive unit in 2023.

Between wholesale changes on offense and question marks on defense, the Ravens' playoff buzz should come with healthy skepticism.

Buzz Meter: 9

Odds to Make Playoffs: +120

Let's stay in the AFC North. While headlines have created optimism around the Baltimore Ravens offense, the Cleveland Browns have a quarterback-receiver duo that should post gaudy numbers in Year 2 together.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson said his chemistry with Amari Cooper "is going to be tight (h/t Ashley Bastock of Cleveland.com). Cleveland may have a top-10 passing offense to match its effective ground attack.

Watson's cases of alleged sexual assault and misconduct leave legitimate questions about his decision-making, which factors into lingering doubt about Cleveland's short-term outlook.

On the field, Watson led the Houston Texans to the playoffs in two out of three seasons after he finished his rookie campaign on injured reserve with a torn ACL. After missing 11 games in 2022 for violating the league's personal conduct policy stemming from sexual allegations, he'll have a full season with his teammates this year.

Wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones has a solid rapport with Watson, hauling in a career-high eight catches for 114 yards in Week 14 last year. The Browns traded for another perimeter playmaker in Elijah Moore, who caught 80 passes for 984 yards and six touchdowns in 27 contests with the New York Jets.

Moreover, running back Nick Chubb is coming off a season in which he rushed for a career-high 1,525 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The Browns defense underachieved under former defensive coordinator Joe Woods, but Jim Schwartz, who fielded a top-12 unit in scoring or total yards in four out of five seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles between 2016 and 2020, could get more out of a talented group.

Up front, Cleveland has two-time All-Pro pass-rusher Myles Garrett, and they added three-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Za'Darius Smith, who logged 10 sacks with the Minnesota Vikings last season. If defensive backs Denzel Ward, Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill stay healthy for most of the season, the Browns defense will round out a balanced roster.

Though Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett could make a second-year leap, the Browns have Watson, who's proven, which tips the scale in Cleveland's favor as the team to sneak into the playoffs if the Ravens fall out of the picture.

Buzz Meter: 4

Odds to Make Playoffs: +180

Did we learn anything from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who hired a Super Bowl-winning head coach to lead the team in the right direction?

In January, the Denver Broncos acquired head coach Sean Payton from the New Orleans Saints. He's tasked with getting more out of the offense, specifically the quarterback, like Doug Pederson with the Jaguars last year.

Unlike Pederson, who works with a young signal-caller in Trevor Lawrence, Payton must help Russell Wilson, a 12-year veteran, rediscover his Pro Bowl form.

Payton elevated 27-year-old Drew Brees' play and helped him age gracefully into his 40s. Going into his age-35 term, Wilson could play his best football in years under a head coach who's won a title with a mobile, undersized quarterback.

In 2022, the Broncos held 10 of their 17 opponents under 20 points, but they went 4-6 in those games because of their putrid offense that scored the fewest points leaguewide. With the slightest improvement on offense, Denver should be able to compete for a playoff spot.

Assuming the defense holds up with the return of Vance Joseph, who will likely bring a spark to the pass rush with his blitz-heavy concepts, Denver's odds to make the postseason should be higher than +180, even with a couple of playoff squads in the AFC West.

Buzz Meter: 3

Odds to Make Playoffs: +300

Our perception of a team can change a lot within a year.

Going into the 2022 season, you couldn't find anyone who left the Los Angeles Rams out of the playoff discussion following their successful Super Bowl run. Now, they're +300 to make the postseason in a division with major question marks at quarterback.

Can 2022 Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith replicate last year's performance? With San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy recovering from UCL surgery, who's going to start under center for a majority of their games? When is Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray going to return from a torn ACL?

Though Matthew Stafford has dealt with several injuries in his career, he's healthy going into training camp. And yes, we should put the Stafford trade rumors to bed, considering Los Angeles has rookie fourth-rounder Stetson Bennett, Brett Rypien and undrafted rookie Dresser Winn as backups.

While healthy, Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp posted eye-popping numbers in 2021. With an injury-riddled 2022 campaign behind them, they could pick up where they left off two years ago.

The Rams' turnover on defense likely factors into their +300 odds to make the playoffs. They traded All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey to the Miami Dolphins and released All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner as well as edge-rusher Leonard Floyd, who's logged at least nine sacks in three consecutive seasons.

However, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald can still perform at a high level and command a double-team. As he continues to draw attention in the trenches, his younger teammates can take advantage of pass-pushing opportunities and get into the backfield in run support.

Sean McVay has won 61 percent of his games and only missed the playoffs twice in six seasons as the head coach of the Rams. Los Angeles is on the far end of the underrated side of the buzz spectrum.

Buzz Meter: 1

Odds to Make Playoffs: -110

The Miami Dolphins made a splashy offseason trade, acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but they trended in the wrong direction with Tua Tagovailoa healthy at the end of the 2022 term.

With Tagovailoa under center, Miami lost four consecutive games between Weeks 13 and 16 last year, three of those contests against playoff teams. After a strong start, with signature wins over the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens, opponents may have figured out head coach Mike McDaniel in the second half of the season.

On top of that, Tagovailoa's extensive injury history remains a concern. He's missed 14 games in three seasons. Last year, the Dolphins went 1-3 in their games that featured a starting signal-caller other than Tagovailoa.

Moreover, wideout Tyreek Hill will face assault and battery charges from an incident at the Miami Beach marina. Though legal cases oftentimes take months to resolve, the NFL can suspend the All-Pro wideout based on what it uncovers in an investigation.

Sure, the addition of defensive coordinator Vic Fangio and Ramsey will tighten up the defense, but Tagovailoa's issues with durability, and the Dolphins' struggles at the end of last season should dampen their playoff buzz.

In 2023, the Jets will have a better squad with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which is another obstacle in the Dolphins' pathway to the postseason. They're ripe for a slight regression.

Buzz Meter: 7

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.

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