College Football Coaches Most Likely to Get Their First CFP title in the Next 5 Years

Becoming a coach is about far more than wins and losses. The ultimate on-field goal, nevertheless, is winning a national championship, and college football coaches are transfixed on a national title.

Heading into the 2023 season, five coaches have reached the pinnacle in their careers.

Who might be the next to join Nick Saban, Dabo Swinney, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher and Mack Brown?

The choices are subjective but consider past performance and title potential in 2023, along with how favorably the roster may be built for future years and how well a coach and/or program tends to recruit.

Through four years at Ohio State, Ryan Day has found himself on the College Football Playoff stage in three seasons.

Not a bad start.

Sure, he's nearing the 2023 campaign in a strange spot. Ohio State has lost two straight games to rival Michigan, and a 1-3 record in those CFP appearances isn't sitting well with a portion of the fan base.

But it's nonsensical to discount the reality that OSU has frequently ended in the Top Four. The event's looming expansion to 12 teams in 2024 should only be a great benefit for the Buckeyes, who would've also made the field in 2021 if the CFP's incoming criteria had applied.

Factor in that OSU has ended no worse than fifth in recruiting rankings during his tenure, and the Bucks are a prime championship threat.

Notre Dame's path to the College Football Playoff has been a little more challenging because, save for the 2020 season with the ACC, the program does not compete for a conference title.

When the CFP expands, that won't matter as much for Marcus Freeman.

Six at-large teams will be included in the 12-team CFP; Notre Dame would've fit that billing in 2015, 2018, 2020 and 2021. Plus, the Fighting Irish would've barely missed the cut in 2017 (14th) and 2019 (15th).

Freeman navigated a poor start to his debut season in 2022, helping the Irish soar from 3-3 to 9-4. He followed that up with a 12th-ranked recruiting class, and Notre Dame is likely bound for a similar group in 2024. The program is capable of landing a top-15 haul annually.

Notre Dame probably won't have the single most-talented roster in any season. But you can't win a title unless you get to the CFP, and the Irish may have a regular presence there.

Six years into his Michigan tenure, Jim Harbaugh had accomplished very little of what he was hired to do.

That sentiment has changed in a dramatic way over the last two seasons, however. In both years, the Wolverines defeated Ohio State, secured Big Ten championships and appeared in the College Football Playoff. They are, without question, moving in a positive direction.

The next step is winning a CFP game; U-M is 0-2 so far. But those recent trips have reignited high expectations in Ann Arbor.

Even in a stacked Big Ten, Michigan is trending toward being a top-15 team consistently. The same is true of the Wolverines' rankings on the recruiting trail in the Harbaugh era.

Michigan needs to sustain this ascent, but the 2021 and 2022 seasons were nothing short of promising.

If your team topples Alabama, you command attention. Do that in your first season, and fans start dreaming.

Brian Kelly made the surprising move from Notre Dame to LSU before the 2022 campaign. After the Tigers' blowout loss to Tennessee in early October, it seemed Kelly's debut season would be satisfactory at best.

In short: Wrong.

LSU pulled off a remarkable second-half surge, taking down Ole Miss and Alabama en route to winning the SEC West. The program is hoping that experience on a veteran roster leads to more success in 2023.

Regardless of what happens, LSU is built to compete in the SEC—even as Oklahoma and Texas are set to join the league—for years. Kelly has traditionally recruited at a high level, and LSU already had the eighth-most talented team in the country when he arrived last season.

Given that Kelly took Notre Dame to the CFP twice, LSU should be a frequent visitor to the 12-team tourney.

As their move to the Big Ten awaits in 2024, will the Trojans end their Pac-12 chapter in storybook fashion? Behind quarterback Caleb Williams, Lincoln Riley is aiming for that national title.

Williams is presumably headed to the NFL after the 2023 season, but USC—on paper—is prepared for the next phase.

In addition to attracting several big-name transfers, Riley and the Trojans signed a top-10 recruiting haul in 2023 and will probably stack those classes in 2024 and beyond. Talent alone doesn't win games, but USC very likely won't be thin in that department.

And it certainly feels like he's on the brink of a title, too.

Riley's teams finished 12-2 (three times), 10-2 and 9-2 in five seasons at Oklahoma. USC went 11-3 in his debut year, and the Trojans are among the nation's most respected squads heading into 2023.

Seeing "USC" in the Big Ten standings will be strange, but Riley routinely leading the Trojans to the CFP is entirely plausible.