Buy or Sell on Nolan Arenado to LA and Latest MLB Rumors Ahead of Trade Deadline

Every minute (heck, every second) that passes brings Major League Baseball closer to its trade deadline on Tuesday, Aug. 1. Accordingly, rumors are flying fast and furious.

But what are we to make of them?

It's a good question, so we thought we'd pause for a game of "buy or sell" with nine rumors looming especially large right now. Does what's being whispered pass the smell test? And, if so, does it make sense for any teams supposedly involved?

Starting off in Pittsburgh, let's get to it.

Are the Pirates in sell mode? You bet the Pirates are in sell mode. They've already unloaded veteran slugger Carlos Santana and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that hurlers Rich Hill, Mitch Keller, David Bednar and Colin Holderman are "getting a lot of hits."

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, however, there's "an understanding" between the Bucs and designated hitter Andrew McCutchen that he'll be staying put.

At least in the abstract, this is absurd. Far removed from his All-Star and MVP-winning glory days though he may be, McCutchen is still 17 percent better than the average hitter. It's also a seller's market, and one in which right-handed bats are in short supply.

The reality, of course, is more complicated.

As it returned the 36-year-old for his 10th season in Pittsburgh after five years away, the Pirates' one-year, $5 million deal always was part P.R. stunt, part play for a veteran presence for a young clubhouse. McCutchen surely hasn't outlived his usefulness on either front. And even for a team like the Pirates, his salary is not a burden that must be expunged.

Verdict: Buy

Shifting now to Chicago, the White Sox went into sell mode on Wednesday when they shipped ace Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo López to the Los Angeles Angels.

Could Dylan Cease, who finished second in the 2022 American League Cy Young Award race, be next? Not if Bob Nightengale of USA Today is to be believed:

Whereas tons of rental starters—i.e., formerly Giolito and now Hill, Lance Lynn, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery and potentially Marcus Stroman and Blake Snell—are available, Cease is something scarcer: an accomplished 27-year-old hurler under club control through 2025.

Yet even if the White Sox are arguably going against the market on that front, Cease's value wouldn't seem to be at its peak. Though he's been better lately with a 3.34 ERA since the start of June, his 4.15 ERA for the year is still nearly twice the 2.20 mark he put up in 2022.

Besides, the White Sox aren't kidding themselves in thinking they could contend next year. Even if it's a fool's hope, there would still be hope nonetheless if they maintain a core consisting of Cease, Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez and Andrews Vaughn and Benintendi.

Verdict: Buy

To be sure, one could also count Tim Anderson as a core member of the White Sox. They hold a reasonable $14 million club option on him for 2024.

And yet, a July 10 report from Heyman notably excluded the 30-year-old shortstop from the White Sox's list of untouchable players. And there's at least one team interested in Anderson, as Jesse Rogers of ESPN says the Miami Marlins are "looking at" him.

The Marlins rank at the very bottom of the National League in scoring, so there's little question they need a bat. And while Anderson's bat has produced only a .564 OPS thus far, this is still a guy who hit .318 across the previous four seasons.

He also happens to have the hot hand. After hitting a dismal .227 through June 28, Anderson has hit a more sturdy .277 since then.

The catch? Of his 26 hits in this span, 23 are mere singles and he still has exactly zero home runs for the season. Available though he seems to be, he's not what the Marlins need to add to an offense that's third from the bottom of the NL in slugging. He'd fit better on, say, the San Francisco Giants or the Boston Red Sox.

Verdict: Sell

Elsewhere in the National League East, the Washington Nationals' standing in last place gives them little choice but to shop their wares.

Rental third baseman Jeimer Candelario is the best they have, and from Jon Morosi of MLB.com comes word that the Angels would like to add him to their pile of new players:

Honestly, you have to hand it to the Angels. All this is coming in the wake of them taking Shohei Ohtani—who, by the way, is celebrating accordingly—off the market. They frankly owe it to him to now go all-in on a playoff push, and they clearly know it.

In any case, we can grant that Anthony Rendon still exists but that he's also hurt and not really a viable option at the hot corner in the best of times anymore. He's played in just 148 games and produced all of 1 rWAR over the last three seasons.

Candelario, 29, is at triple that mark for this year, a figure he's arrived at by being 25 percent better than the average hitter with slick defense on the side. Between these things and his modest $5 million salary, the Angels darn well should be targeting him.

Verdict: Buy

The Angels are ostensibly chasing the Texas Rangers in the AL West, but it's really the Houston Astros the latter needs to worry about. Since June 24, they've cut Texas' lead by 4.5 games.

It thus might be time for something drastic, such as a trade for Justin Verlander.

According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, "there is a belief within the industry" that the New York Mets could trade the three-time Cy Young Award winner and future Hall of Famer midway through the first season of his two-year, $86.7 million deal.

Feinsand further characterizes the Rangers as the "frontrunner" for the 40-year-old ace. Conceptually, at least, you won't hear us argue it's not a good fit. Texas' rotation has done well for the most part, but its strength has steadily waned since Jacob deGrom last pitched in April before undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The hurdles are there, though, and not just in the money involved and the question of what Verlander is worth amid a year in which he's regressed pretty much across the board. He would have to waive his no-trade protection, which he generally hasn't sounded interested in doing. It all adds up to a sense he'll ultimately stay put.

Verdict: Sell

Meanwhile in the AL East, the Yankees are 19-23 since Aaron Judge last played on June 3. They have, as a result, sunk to last place.

Yet burying them may be a mistake. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was first to report that Judge could be back in the lineup as soon as Friday. And according to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, the club is "leaning toward buying" at the deadline.

The concept is defensible on at least one front. The Yankees are only 2.5 games out in the AL wild-card hunt, and FanGraphs puts their odds of making the postseason in any capacity at 32.9 percent.

If there's a second defensible front, it's that the Yankees would make for lousy sellers. Unless they were willing to hit the "rebuild" button, they'd be limited to dealing pending free agents. Center fielder Harrison Bader and lefty reliever Wandy Peralta are the best they have, and neither is an especially blue chip.

Kuty's report further notes that the Yankees' ultimate stance will depend on how they perform against the Baltimore Orioles this weekend. Yet even if that goes sideways, they'd do well to at least shop in the low-risk, high-reward aisle. Kuty connected them to Cody Bellinger, Randal Grichuk and Dylan Carlson, and we daresay they should eye Tommy Pham as well.

Verdict: Buy

Also on the bubble are the San Diego Padres, who stand at fourth place in the NL West despite coming into the year as arguably the favorites to win the division.

Heyman reports they're thus not unwilling to listen to offers, even for left-handers Blake Snell and Josh Hader. And according to Nightengale, there's even an expectation among other teams that the two will get dealt before Tuesday:

Would they be good gets? Nah. More like great gets.

Snell had his ups and downs in his first two years in San Diego, but the 30-year-old is now chasing his second Cy Young Award by way of a league-leading 2.61 ERA. Hader, 29, has a 0.95 ERA in his own right, with 16 hits allowed in 38 innings. Both are pending free agents.

Still, this feels like wishful thinking. It was just on Tuesday that ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that the Padres have turned away parties interested in Snell and Hader. In what may be a related story, their playoff odds aren't much worse than New York's at 26.5 percent. Unless that figure craters over the weekend, it's hard to imagine a white flag going up.

Verdict: Sell

There's another, and quite frankly bigger, nugget in Heyman's latest report on the Padres' position before the deadline: they're also listening on Juan Soto.

That the Padres are willing to do that much is a stunning turn of events. It is, after all, a few days short of a year since they first acquired him from the Nationals in a deal that was meant to be transformative.

Instead, it's been a letdown. Soto hasn't resembled the guy who drew Ted Williams comparisons through his first four seasons, posting a not-quite-other-worldly .253/.407/.463 slash line. The Padres are 78-81 since his first game with them.

Given all this and the fact that his value is buoyed by his additional year of arbitration eligibility in 2024, one can't blame the Padres for at least being open to dealing the 24-year-old.

Whether they will, though, is doubtful. There's no way they're going to get the same value they surrendered to get him in the first place, and let's not forget that the Padres aren't so fargone that they must consider rebuilding. It'll be an upset if Soto isn't still a Padre come 2024, much less the end of this season.

Verdict: Sell

Let's also finish in the NL West, where the 58-43 Dodgers have a three-game lead and may be looking to go for the kill.

As Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday, the Dodgers are "engaged in talks" with the St. Louis Cardinals about Nolan Arenado. Yes, that Nolan Arenado. The 10-time Gold Glover and eight-time All-Star.

There is some pushback out there, including from Feinsand concerning Arenado's willingness to waive his no-trade clause only for the Dodgers and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch on, well, every element of Castillo's report.

But since the 32-year-old has already waived it once out of a desire to play for a winner, it tracks that Arenado would be willing to waive his no-trade clause for another chance to join a winner. It also tracks that the Dodgers would be interested in him, as they could use both a third-base upgrade and another right-handed hitter.

Yet another thing that tracks is how well the Dodgers and Cardinals line up as trading partners. The latter needs young pitching. The former has lots of it. So if ever there was an excuse for the Cardinals to back off their purported disinterest in dealing Arenado, this is it.

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.