8 MLB Stars Most Likely to Be Traded in 2023-24 Offseason
With the trade deadline having come and gone on Tuesday, Major League Baseball's next trading season isn't until this winter. Feel free to let out an exasperated sigh about that.
We, however, preferred to get ourselves psyched up by pondering eight stars who could be available in trades during the 2023-24 offseason.
This was a strictly speculative exercise for the most part, though there was reporting to consult in some cases. Regardless, the idea was to look for stars who could be moved this winter for reasons relating to their teams' contention timelines, escalating salaries and a general need for a change of scenery.
Let's count them down in order of their desirability.
8. 2B Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 110 G, 462 PA, 17 HR, 9 SB, .266 AVG, .329 OBP, .437 SLG
Contract Status: Under club control through 2024
Gleyber Torres has enough experience with trade rumors to know the best way to deal with them is to shut oneself off from social media.
He might want to stay shut off this winter, if for no other reason than one team still figures to be after him. As Randy Miller of NJ.com reported prior to the deadline, the Miami Marlins have been and still are "fixated" on the two-time All-Star.
What they see in Torres is presumably what any other team can see: a good offensive second baseman who, as evidenced by the 62 home runs he hit across 2018 and 2019, has it in him to be great.
This leads to the question of why the Yankees shouldn't just keep Torres and hope that they're the ones who benefit from this potential greatness in 2024. Besides, it's not like they're overflowing with capable hitters.
On the other hand, Torres' persistent struggles to replicate his early success could lead the Yankees to conclude they've gotten all they can from him. And, in turn, that it would be best to deal him now rather than risk his value diminishing further during his walk year.
7. 2B Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 103 G, 453 PA, 14 HR, 12 SB, .251 AVG, .336 OBP, .409 SLG
Contract Status: Under club control through 2026
Now that the Reds have built a contender on an exciting crop of homegrown players, why would they willingly choose to trade one of them?
This one's easy: Because they need pitching and they're better positioned to trade for it than to pay for it.
Hence why Jonathan India's name popped up in trade rumors. The Reds were reportedly open to moving him, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on July 27 that the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year is more likely to get moved this winter.
As we'll get to, there are likely to be controllable arms for the Reds to target this winter. And even if India's value has diminished since he sprung on the scene back in '21, he still has appeal as a multi-talented second baseman with youth and club control on his side.
If the Reds were to feel his loss anywhere, it would likely be in the clubhouse. Between Elly De La Cruz, Matt McClain, Spencer Steer and the up-and-coming Noelvi Marte, they'll have the infield depth to cover for his absence on the field.
6. RHP David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 44 G, 36 GF, 45.2 IP, 33 H (1 HR), 56 K, 13 BB, 1.38 ERA
Contract Status: Under club control through 2026
The Pirates are putting together their own core of young talent, but the product isn't quite as finished as the one in Cincinnati.
In tandem with their ongoing slide since a 20-8 start, this could explain why they were willing to listen on their core stars at the deadline. As Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on July 27, David Bednar and Mitch Keller were among them.
As to which is more likely to go back on the block this winter, the smart money may be on neither. Though mostly known for his stinginess, Bucs owner Bob Nutting spoke after locking up Bryan Reynolds in April about wanting to extend more core pieces.
But if we had to assign odds, we'll guess that Bednar is more likely to move than Keller.
Even setting aside how All-Star starters are generally players you want to build around, shopping Keller on the sidelines of a free-agent market stacked with top starters would be unwise. By comparison, shopping Bednar as an alternative to Josh Hader could give the Pirates that much more leverage to turn him into prospect gold.
5. RHP Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 29
2023 Stats: 12 GS, 68.2 IP, 52 H (9 HR), 96 K, 22 BB, 3.15 ERA
Contract Status: Year 1 of 2-Year, $30.4 Million Deal
In the here and now, Tyler Glasnow couldn't be coming online at a better time for the Rays.
He missed basically the first two months of the season and was initially shaky upon returning, pitching to a 4.97 ERA over five outings. Since then, it's been lights all the way out as the 6'8", 225-pound righty has speared hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA over seven starts.
And now, the Rays will need Glasnow to do even more. Shane McClanahan is usually their ace, but he went on the injured list Thursday with an ominous-sounding forearm injury.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, however, it'll be a shock if reports of the Rays shopping Glasnow don't come out this winter. The alternative is keeping him and having to pay his $25 million salary in 2024, which would be downright un-Rays of them.
This, of course, is still another reason the Rays need Glasnow to finish strong. If he ends the year injured and/or ineffective, a salary that size could scare teams off from renting him for next season.
4. RHP Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Age: 27
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 121.0 IP, 118 H (13 HR), 144 K, 52 BB, 4.61 ERA
Contract Status: Under club control through 2025
The White Sox cleaned house ahead of the deadline, trading Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Jake Burger and Keynan Middleton.
But not Dylan Cease, though it wasn't for lack of being open to it. Rosenthal reported that the White Sox were willing to listen to offers for last year's runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award.
That Cease ended up going nowhere isn't surprising. The White Sox would have rightfully put a high price on him, and other teams rightfully would have balked at paying it. He has, after all, seen his ERA more than double from the 2.20 mark he posted in 2022.
Still, one can imagine interest in Cease will pick back up again this winter. Teams that need pitching but can't afford the open market's best arms—looking at you, Reds—could see him as a huge upside play over the next two years.
If the White Sox ultimately get a good offer, they would frankly be wise to take it. Let's just say that a stripped-down version of a team that's currently 43-67 won't have good odds to contend in 2024.
3. RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 28
2023 Stats: 23 GS, 139.1 IP, 96 H (15 HR), 141 K, 50 BB, 3.42 ERA
Contract Status: Under club control through 2024
It wasn't that long ago that there was rampant speculation about the Brewers trading Corbin Burnes this summer.
By way of a direct declaration from Brewers general manager Matt Arnold to Burnes himself, such speculation ultimately fizzled out. It even feels like ancient history now, where the Brewers are in first place and Burnes is on fire with a 1.85 ERA in his last six starts.
Come the winter, though, the Burnes speculation is sure to begin anew.
A lot of what was driving it in the first place was the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner's very public dissatisfaction with how the Brewers treated him during the arbitration process. The two sides are due to go through it all again this winter, wherein the Brewers would once again be pushing against a raise to Burnes' $10 million salary.
The trade market figures to offer the path of least resistance to both parties. And unlike, say, Willy Adames or Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers wouldn't have diminished trade value to worry about in any negotiations centered on Burnes.
2. RHP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Age: 26
2023 Stats: 22 GS, 130.2 IP, 116 H (17 HR), 126 K, 24 BB, 3.86 ERA
Contract Status: Under club control through 2027
Though Glasnow, Cease and Burnes are fine pitchers, they have an obvious shortcoming for would-be shoppers on the trade market: they have four more years of club control between them.
That's as many as Logan Gilbert has all on his own.
The Mariners may not want to trade him for that precise reason, not to mention the fact he's really good. But if this winter proves to be anything like this summer, the interest will be out there. The Cardinals were reportedly interested in Gilbert, and so were the Rays.
For the Mariners, trading Gilbert would have meant breaking up a rotation that's been their biggest strength in 2023. But that indeed would have been the point, as swapping out a surplus arm for an impact bat had the chance to be a net positive in the aggregate.
There would seem to be a non-zero chance of the Mariners having to consider the same logic this winter. There will be pressure on them to find the kind of hitter Teoscar Hernández was supposed to be for them, for which the options on the open market will be slim.
1. LF Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
Age: 24
2023 Stats: 111 G, 488 PA, 24 HR, 6 SB, .279 AVG, .424 OBP, .531 SLG
Contract Status: Under club control through 2024
A Juan Soto trade? What is this? A very precise moment in Aug. 2022?
Yeah, one supposes it is a little hard to believe. But Heyman nonetheless reported on July 27 that the Padres were listening on Soto, even if a trade "in winter or at next year's deadline still seems more likely."
If the Padres do re-open their ears to offers for Soto this winter, it presumably won't be out of a want to move him. As much as it feels like his time in San Diego has been a letdown, by OPS+ he hasn't been much less productive than he was for the Washington Nationals.
Rather, the cost element could be the bigger issue for the Padres. They already have more than their share of big salaries, with Soto's due to rise from $23 million via arbitration.
Is he worth it? Of course. But if the Padres get a chance to cash in one year of Soto for multiple years of one or more players who wouldn't put as much stress on their payroll, they might just have to take it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.