Each MLB Team's Biggest 'What-if?' of the 2023 Season
There is no alternate version of the 2023 Major League Baseball season. What's happening is what's happening and there's no changing.
But with the season inching closer to its conclusion on Oct. 1, it's a good time to ask: What if?
What if certain injuries that might have been avoided were indeed avoided? What if certain players were producing the numbers anyone could have expected of them? What if teams had done things differently at the trade deadline?
Such questions can be applied to each team in the league, so let's do so in division-by-division fashion.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles: What if They Had Bought More Aggressively at the Deadline?
The Orioles have the best record in the American League, so the phrase "no regrets" applies. In time, though, it might not apply as much to a modest deadline haul consisting of Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami.
The O's were connected to bigger fish, including Justin Verlander and Michael Lorenzen. As they're now shoving with new teams, it's hard not to wonder about how much better the Orioles' prospects for a deep playoff run would be if they were shoving in Baltimore instead.
Boston Red Sox: What if Adam Duvall Hadn't Broken His Wrist?
Duvall was MLB's hottest hitter out of the gate, homering four times with a 1.683 OPS through April 8. Then, on April 9, he fractured his left wrist on a diving-catch attempt that was as awkward as it was needless. He hasn't been the same since returning on June 9.
But has Duvall's injury ultimately been to the Red Sox's benefit? It opened a roster spot for Jarren Duran, who has since broken out in hitting .295 with 34 doubles and 23 stolen bases. If Duvall hadn't dove for that ball, maybe Duran doesn't get his shot.
New York Yankees: What if Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Judge Hadn't Gotten Hurt?
Judge injuring his toe on a spectacular catch on June 3 looms as the most consequential moment in the Yankees' season. But even if it didn't become apparent until much later, another occurred days earlier when Rizzo was concussed in a collision on May 28.
These events form a rough demarcation line between a time when the Yankees were good and one in which they're very much not. Whereas they were 34-23 through May 30, they're 26-39 ever since.
Tampa Bay Rays: What if They Had Traded for Eduardo Rodriguez?
It's hard to say the injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan might have been avoided. All three had their elbows quit on them, which just plain happens with pitchers.
Yet these injuries wouldn't loom as large right now if the Rays had pulled off a trade for Rodriguez, who was the best available starter not moved at the deadline. His arrival would have been especially crucial when McClanahan went on the IL on Aug. 4.
Toronto Blue Jays: What if Alek Manoah was Alek Manoah?
There's also something to be said about how disappointing Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s season has been, but even that isn't the same level as that of Manoah. He's been demoted to the minors twice this year after finishing third in the AL Cy Young Award voting in 2022.
Manoah is only 25 years old and, by all accounts, fully healthy. Which is to say there's no good reason for his struggles, and that it's a shame the Blue Jays' very good starting rotation isn't even better.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: What if Tim Anderson Was Tim Anderson?
After a 2022 season in which they went 81-81, the White Sox never were a slam-dunk bet to make the playoffs in 2023. And looking back, it's hard to think of any one thing that could have saved them from the disastrous path they're on now.
The downfall of Anderson, who went from hitting .318 between 2019 and 2022 to .238 this year, nonetheless feels seismic. Maybe he doesn't save the White Sox's season by hitting like his usual self, but he might at least have given them another trade chip to cash in.
Cleveland Guardians: What if They Had Bought at the Deadline?
Even though they were .500 as recently as July 30, the Guardians mostly acted as sellers ahead of the deadline on Aug. 1. Notably, out the door went Amed Rosario, Josh Bell and Aaron Civale.
Yet even after all that and a 6-9 record since the deadline passed, the Guardians are still only 5 games behind a sputtering Twins team in the AL Central. If they had instead acted as buyers—which they were reportedly willing to do at one point—they might be even closer.
Detroit Tigers: What if the Eduardo Rodriguez Trade Had Gone Through?
Here's another team that was never a likely contender, and it seems silly to wonder if the Tigers would be in a better place if they were getting a vintage season from Javier Báez. His prime was on shaky ground even before he turned 30 last December.
Rather, the big question here is how the Tigers' future would be looking if E-Rod hadn't invoked his no-trade clause to squash a deal to the Dodgers. He certainly had a right to do so, but the Tigers' payroll and farm system are worse off for it.
Kansas City Royals: What if They Had Traded Salvador Perez?
The Royals are yet another team that never had a real chance to contend this year. It's indeed only become apparent that they have a lot more rebuilding to do, to which end a trade of Perez might have helped.
Multiple reports said the Royals pursued the possibility, but Perez ultimately stayed put. The real intrigue now lies in whether this will prove to be for the better, as the team may yet rise from the depths before his contract expires.
Minnesota Twins: What if They Had Trusted Edouard Julien Sooner?
The Twins are in first place largely because they're basically running unopposed. They have multiple faults as a contender, including an offense that's been hit or miss all year.
It has, however, been better since Julien started getting regular starts at second base on June 10. He's put up a .907 OPS since then to help the Twins produce a .770 OPS and 4.6 runs per game. Just sayin': They should have trusted the rookie sooner.
American League West
Houston Astros: What if They Had Acted Sooner to Protect José Abreu?
Abreu turned a corner upon hitting his first Astros home run on May 8, but only to the extent that he went from a .534 OPS before then to .680 OPS afterward. Not exactly what they had in mind for the erstwhile AL MVP.
Well, it turns out Abreu had a bad back all along. Perhaps he should have gone on the IL well before Aug. 12, in which case an otherwise strong team would have been spared from a massive black hole at the cold corner.
Los Angeles Angels: What if They Had Traded Shohei Ohtani?
The Ohtani trade buzz was fun while it lasted, but it ended for good when they promptly took him off the market on July 26 and went about loading up through deals for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk.
The ensuing failure has been nothing less than spectacular as the Angels have dropped 14 out of 20. Hindsight is 20-20 and all, but not trading Ohtani for a massive haul already looks like a move that could have consequences for years to come.
Oakland Athletics: What if They Had Called up Zack Gelof Sooner?
There simply isn't any scenario in which the 2023 A's aren't a catastrophe, so let's not bother wondering about that. What is worth questioning, however, is what took them so long to call up Gelof.
He had raked with a .929 OPS At Triple-A before making his major league debut on July 14. He's since continued to rake with a .974 OPS in the majors, thus making the A's slightly more watchable. It's not much, but it's something A's fans might have enjoyed sooner.
Seattle Mariners: What if Jarred Kelenic Hadn't Kicked That Cooler?
With his bat in a sustained rut, Kelenic let his frustration get the better of him on July 19 when he kicked a water cooler and broke a bone in his left foot. He's been out ever since, which should hypothetically be putting the Mariners at a disadvantage.
Instead, they're on a 20-7 run that's pushed them into the AL's third wild-card spot. This is in part because Cade Marlowe has been a revelation with an .827 OPS in Kelenic's stead. Funny how things work out, isn't it?
Texas Rangers: What if Josh Jung Had Caught that Ball Cleanly?
Like the Orioles, the Rangers have "no regrets" written all over them. No reasonable ones, anyway. It would indeed be nice if Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi were healthy, but their respective arm injuries were probably unavoidable.
Jung's broken thumb was a bit of a fluke, however. He got it trying to catch a line drive on Aug. 6, and it required surgery for which his recovery time table is still uncertain. If nothing else, it all puts a damper on what had been an All-Star breakout for the rookie.
National League East
Atlanta: What if They Had Rolled the Dice with Vaughn Grissom?
Atlanta has the best record in the majors, so "no regrets" once again applies. This is in no small part because time has proven them wise on their decision to option Grissom to the minors and open with Orlando Arcia at shortstop.
Grissom had been hyped as the heir apparent to Dansby Swanson in the lead-up to that moment, so backing off him was a surprise move. But had Atlanta not done it, they might have missed out on an unexpected All-Star turn on Arcia's part.
Miami Marlins: What if They Hadn't Sent Down Eury Pérez?
Pérez was sensational in his first 11 starts for the Marlins between May 12 and July 6, pitching to a 2.36 ERA that helped fuel a 32-19 run. But then, for workload purposes, it was back down to the minors for the 20-year-old righty.
That wasn't necessarily the wrong call, given that Pérez was already past his previous career high for innings pitched. But it does look like a cursed decision, as the Marlins are 13-21 since making it.
New York Mets: What if Edwin Díaz Hadn't Hurt His Knee?
What was a joyous moment for Puerto Rico at the World Baseball Classic turned on a dime into a mournful one when ace closer Edwin Díaz hurt his knee celebrating a 5-2 win over the Dominican Republic on March 15. The Mets, also, felt the pain.
If Díaz is healthy, do the Mets avoid the sluggish start that ultimately resulted in them blowing up their roster at the deadline? Probably not. But knowing that their bullpen was generally weak without him, it's not a firm "no" either.
Philadelphia Phillies: What if Trea Turner Was Trea Turner?
The Phillies are a good team despite a mediocre offense, which is what nobody had in mind when they signed Turner. It is, of course, hard to separate this from how Turner himself is having the worst season of his career.
Turner was arguably the best shortstop in baseball between 2020 and 2022 and he only just turned 30 on the last day of June. There's thus no good reason for his struggles, leaving the Phillies little choice but to hope he gets right before the playoffs begin.
Washington Nationals: What if They Had Traded Lane Thomas?
This was always going to be a rebuilding year for the Nationals, so it was no surprise when they traded Jeimer Candelario even on the heels of a 9-4 run between July 8 and 26. If anything, it was a bigger surprise that they held on to Thomas amid his career year.
It's unclear what kind of interest there was in the 27-year-old, much less whether a trade was ever close. In any case, the question now becomes whether the Nats will quickly rise as a contender and show that not trading him in 2023 was a blessing in disguise.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: What if Their Luck Had Turned Sooner?
It's only recently that the Cubs have turned from plodding to thriving, winning 19 out of 28 to climb within two games of the NL Central lead while simultaneously claiming one of the NL's three wild-card spots.
The thing is, though, is the Cubs were a good team even before this happened. They were the only team in the division with a positive run differential prior to this run. Had that translated to more wins sooner, they'd be sitting even prettier right now.
Cincinnati Reds: What if They Had Promoted Elly De La Cruz Sooner?
The Reds have been a dramatically different team since they called up De La Cruz on June 6. Whereas they were 27-33 beforehand, they're 37-26 ever since.
The question of whether the Reds should have called him up sooner is nonetheless a complicated one. For while it may have led to even more wins, there might have been no avoiding his slump (.187 AVG) and that of the team (14-18) since the All-Star break. And as such, both player and team might be even deeper into their mutual slump right now.
Milwaukee Brewers: What if They Had Promoted Sal Frelick Sooner?
The Brewers have been struggling to score runs since Day 1, so the hype was that much more intense when they promoted Frelick on July 22. He's helped change things for the better, posting a .790 OPS as the Brewers have scored 4.7 runs per game since then.
And yet, it might not be a given that Frelick could have helped sooner. Despite his status as a top prospect, he was having a rough time with a .675 OPS at Triple-A. Perhaps he wouldn't have been ready if Milwaukee had acted sooner.
Pittsburgh Pirates: What if Oneil Cruz Hadn't Slid So Awkwardly?
It was a nice start the Pirates got off to, but a catastrophic blow happened on April 9. That's when Cruz fractured his left ankle on a play at home plate that was part awkward slide, part collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala.
Though the Pirates went on to push their record to 20-8, even having Cruz might not have prevented the drop down the standings that followed. But if nothing else, getting to watch the 6'7", 215-pound shortstop on a daily basis would have given Bucs fans more to cheer for.
St. Louis Cardinals: What if They Had Been More Patient with Jordan Walker?
The Cardinals' downfall from NL Central champs in 2022 to cellar dwellers this year feels like a thing that should have been avoidable. Yet at the same time, it doesn't. The roster they carried into this year always was volatile.
Concerning their future, perhaps the most relevant question is if they erred in sending Walker down to the minors just three weeks after putting him on the Opening Day roster. It doesn't seem to have compromised his development, but it did delay his free agency by a year. Hopefully he doesn't resent them for it.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks: What if They Hadn't Released Madison Bumgarner?
This is not to suggest Bumgarner shouldn't have been released, mind you. Of all the acceptable things to do with pitchers with 10.26 ERAs, keeping them around is not one of them.
The only surprise is that the Diamondbacks cut Bumgarner loose while he was still owed $34 million. That kind of money ordinarily buys more patience. But it worked out, as Tommy Henry took his spot and led Arizona to wins in 10 of his 16 starts.
Colorado Rockies: What if They Had Called Up Nolan Jones Sooner?
The Rockies were always going to be terrible, and there's little point in litigating whether injuries to Kris Bryant, Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela could have been avoided. It's doubtful that any of the three was robbed of a special season.
As for Jones, he raked with a 1.193 OPS at Triple-A before the Rockies finally promoted him on May 26. He's since been one of their best hitters to the tune of an .858 OPS, thus indicating they missed out by being slow to act.
Los Angeles Dodgers: What if Gavin Lux Hadn't Taken an Awkward Step?
Here's another "no regrets" team, and especially lately with the Dodgers on a 15-2 run in August. They've even managed to turn their rotation from a weakness to a major strength, thus nixing a compelling what-if scenario.
Even shortstop isn't the problem it once was, it's still hard not to think back to the awkward step that resulted in a torn ACL for Lux back in February. If he was healthy and building on last year's solid breakout, an already dangerous team would have yet another weapon.
San Diego Padres: What if They Had Sold at the Deadline?
Though the Padres were linked to Verlander and other high-profile trade chips ahead of the deadline, there were also rumblings they were open to selling. At least, open enough to listen on Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader.
Those rumors ultimately amounted to nothing. But with the Padres sinking even further in the standings with a 7-9 record since the deadline, maybe they should have. The rest of 2023 would have been torpedoed, but at least the club's future would look more optimistic.
San Francisco Giants: What if That Pitch Had Missed Mitch Haniger?
After getting off to a slow start, Haniger had been heating up with a .760 OPS over 21 games between May 19 and June 12. Then he got a literal bad back on June 13, when a wayward fastball fractured his right forearm. He's been out ever since.
The Giants were weathering his absence just fine for a while, but not so much now. They're 10-17 and have scored only 2.9 runs per game in their last 27 contests. No matter when Haniger returns, this stretch doesn't bode well for their playoff push.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.