Projecting the 12 MLB Stars Who Will Be Playing for a New Team in 2024

At this point in the 2023 season, the shock of seeing guys like Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson in different uniforms has long since worn off. But lest anyone forget, it was pretty dang weird at first.

Consider this a warning for the next wave of stars who'll change teams this winter.

What follows are predictions for 12 players who will leave their current clubs via free agency or the trade market during MLB's 2023-24 offseason. The concern was not where they'll end up, but the reasons why it's hard to imagine them staying put. Suffice it to say these contain multitudes.

Let's proceed in alphabetical order.

Age: 28

2023 Stats: 124 G, 525 PA, 39 HR, 4 SB, .221 AVG, .324 OBP, .519 SLG

Status: Under club control through 2024

This prediction turned into a lay-up when Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Sunday that the Mets are "expected" to trade Pete Alonso this winter.

"The fact that they had every opportunity to sign this guy, and didn't, speaks volumes about his future," one National League general manager told Nightengale.

This, of course, is to say nothing of how close the Mets came to moving Alonso in addition to Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and other incumbents ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, a trade to the Milwaukee Brewers got to within "field-goal range."

The gist of all this is that even if it did arrive unexpectedly, the Mets are serious about their rebuild. And besides, this winter will present a legitimately good opportunity to cash in on Alonso.

The free-agent market will, after all, be extremely light on impact hitters. Alonso, who leads the majors with 185 home runs since 2019, is obviously one of those, and thus should be that much more desirable for power-needy teams during the winter.

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 98 G, 425 PA, 1 HR, 12 SB, .244 AVG, .287 OBP, .296 SLG

Status: Signed through 2023 with club option for 2024

Speaking of clubs that have only recently entered rebuilds, the White Sox are right there with the Mets.

First it was Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and other core stars out the door at the trade deadline. Out the same door last week went executive vice president Ken Williams and general manager Rick Hahn, the ultimate sign that owner Jerry Reinsdorf is less than pleased.

Where things go next isn't entirely clear, but what is clear is that a White Sox roster that's produced a 52-80 record in 2023 needs an overhaul. Save for maybe Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez, everyone should be available this winter.

Like, for example, Tim Anderson. As bad as he's been this year, it's still hard to envision the White Sox rejecting his $14 million option. That's not a lot of money for a two-time All-Star who hit .318 between 2019 and 2022.

And whereas the upcoming free-agent market will be light on hitters generally, it will be especially light on middle infielders. So if the White Sox do shop Anderson, teams are bound to line up to take him on as a change-of-scenery candidate.

Age: 28

2023 Stats: 100 G, 423 PA, 20 HR, 18 SB, .320 AVG, .366 OBP, .543 SLG

Status: Signed through 2023 with mutual option for 2024

If Cody Bellinger leaves the Cubs this winter, it won't be because he couldn't wait to leave.

"I love it here," the 2019 NL MVP told Nightengale. "It is great here. Wrigley Field is such an amazing place. We'll see what happens, but for now, we're in a playoff race. I'm just trying to go out every day and help this team win."

It's nonetheless highly unlikely that he'll exercise his end of a $25 million mutual option for next season. After the year he's had, he should be able to find that kind of money and much more on the open market.

Because the Cubs are a big-market team on a contention upswing, it's foolish to rule out them being the team to meet Bellinger's asking price. There is, however, the question of how he would fit in with the club's long-term plans.

Though the Cubs have mostly used Bellinger at first base lately, center field is his best position and where he has the most value. The Cubs probably can't hope to re-sign him at first baseman rates, and signing him as a center fielder would mean putting a roadblock in the way of hot-shot prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Age: 28

2023 Stats: 26 GS, 158.0 IP, 114 H (19 HR), 160 K, 56 BB, 3.65 ERA

Status: Under club control through 2024

There was speculation aplenty that he would no longer be a Brewer on the other side of the trade deadline, but Corbin Burnes eventually heard otherwise.

"He said he's not trading me," the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner said on July 14 of a conversation with GM Matt Arnold. "They're looking to add some pieces."

As they now hold a five-game lead in the NL Central, it's looking like Arnold made the right call. Yet it's just a matter of time before the Burnes trade speculation picks up again, if for no other reason than the two sides have something of a frayed relationship.

Indeed, Burnes himself said his relationship with the Brewers was "definitely hurt" during his latest round of arbitration. Another is on tap for this winter, in which Burnes will be due for an ample raise on his $10 million salary.

Since an extension is likely a long shot, the Brewers would be justified in listening to offers for Burnes ahead of his walk year. Even alongside a free-agent market that will be well stocked with pitching, they could get at least one offer they may not be able to refuse.

Age: 27

2023 Stats: 27 GS, 142.1 IP, 140 H (14 HR), 169 K, 68 BB, 4.81 ERA

Status: Under club control through 2025

If Anderson is a candidate to be traded by the White Sox this winter, Dylan Cease might well be the candidate for such treatment.

If anything, it's a surprise that the runner-up for last year's American League Cy Young Award isn't already on a new team. There was real interest in Cease ahead of the trade deadline, to a point where Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the White Sox were "taking more serious offers" for the righty.

Of course, there was a complication then that hasn't diminished in recent weeks: Cease hasn't exactly boosted his value in 2023.

His rough season has indeed gotten even worse as he's been shelled to the tune of an 8.22 ERA since the deadline. Relative to 2022, his fastball velocity is down and his slider has been substantially more hittable.

Still, 27-year-olds with two remaining years of club control and swing-and-miss stuff are always appealing. And relative to free agents who'll command tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, pitching-needy teams might view Cease as a bargain on the winter market.

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 125 G, 520 PA, 15 HR, 3 SB, .248 AVG, .338 OBP, .431 SLG

Status: Signed through 2023

Whether it's related to the hip surgery he had in 2020 or some other reason, Matt Chapman is not the same guy who racked up 15.4 rWAR across 2018 and 2019.

He's still darn good, though. He can typically be counted on for double-digit Defensive Runs Saved at third base and good power on offense. He may only have 15 home runs this year, but those come with an AL-high 36 doubles.

As to the middle finger injury that landed Chapman on the injured list on Monday, it's a blow to the Blue Jays in the meantime but for now it doesn't seem like anything that will hinder his earning power in free agency.

Granted, all this is to say that the Blue Jays will have multiple good reasons to re-sign Chapman. But it'll be easier said than done if for no other reason than their long-term books are already crowded even without a potential extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in place.

Toronto also seems to have Chapman's replacement at third base standing by in their farm system. That's Orelvis Martinez, who's impressed with an .840 OPS and 23 home runs in the high minors this season.

Age: 29

2023 Stats: 27 GS, 153.2 IP, 139 H (30 HR), 165 K, 57 BB, 4.45 ERA

Status: Signed through 2023

Even setting aside that re-signing Lucas Giolito won't be the Angels' top priority this winter, it seems fair to wonder if they'll even want to bring him back.

After all, things haven't gone so well since the Angels acquired Giolito on July 26. A nine-run dud on Aug. 2 certainly skews the equation, but he's yet to have even one standout start in pitching to a 6.89 ERA in six outings.

This said, Giolito won't have outlived his usefulness in Anaheim when the season ends. No matter what happens with their other big free agent, they're going to have a need for at least one starter. And for all his recent faults, he's still a three-time Cy Young Award vote-getter.

Rather, what really makes it hard to imagine Giolito returning to Anaheim is just how many options he's likely to have this winter.

He'll likely be one of the more affordable options among the top-of-the-rotation types set to hit free agency, and being barred from receiving a qualifying offer means he won't be tied to draft-pick compensation. He'll thus appear to all sorts of contenders, be they of the established or of the would-be variety.

Age: 29

2023 Stats: 48 G, 42 GF, 45.2 IP, 20 H (1 HR), 73 K, 24 BB, 0.79 ERA

Status: Signed through 2023

The Padres are already operating with the highest payroll in their history, and there isn't much relief on the horizon in 2024.

Mind you, this doesn't necessarily mean they're going to downsize their payroll. It just means that they're probably not going to be able to get everything they want.

Despite recent developments, it'll be no surprise if they are indeed all-in on Shohei Ohtani this winter. There's also a possible extension for Juan Soto, whose .400 OBP and 25 home runs have made him a bright spot amid an otherwise gloomy season.

For what it's worth, Josh Hader was the other guy the Padres wanted to extend this year. But now that he's this close to free agency, that ship has almost certainly sailed.

This is to say nothing of Hader's potential value in free agency, as any five-time All-Star with a sub-1.00 ERA could look to Edwin Díaz $102 million deal with the Mets as a model. It's not out of the question that the Padres would do such a deal, but it seems more likely that Hader will get it from a team that doesn't have bigger fish to fry.

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 27 GS, 167.1 IP, 146 H (29 HR), 174 K, 41 BB, 4.30 ERA

Status: Signed through 2023

Among the previously mentioned top-of-the-rotation types slated to hit the market, it's possible to imagine some of them staying put.

Julio Urías and Sonny Gray, for example, fit well with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins, and neither figures to be so expensive as to be out of either club's price range. Marcus Stroman could opt out of his deal with the Cubs, but the two sides parting ways doesn't seem as much like a given after all the injury trouble he's had lately.

Aaron Nola, too, is a candidate to stay right where he's at. The Phillies are the only organization he's known since they took him with the No. 7 pick in the 2014 draft. Plus, it's not as if the franchise is hurting for money.

And yet, it also doesn't feel like the wrong time for the two sides to end their relationship.

The Phillies already have Zack Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez locked up beyond 2023, with top prospect Andrew Painter also in play when he recovers from Tommy John surgery. And with his prime years likely on borrowed time, Nola himself would be wise to consider escaping for a home ballpark that's not a notorious launching pad.

Age: 29

2023 Hitting Stats: 130 G, 575 PA, 44 HR, 19 SB, .304 AVG, .409 OBP, .663 SLG

2023 Pitching Stats: 23 GS, 132.0 IP, 85 H (18 HR), 167 K, 55 BB, 3.14 ERA

Status: Signed through 2023

For anyone who's just now emerging from under a rock, the asterisk next to the "RHP" has to do with the tear in Shohei Ohtani's ulnar collateral ligament.

Because of that, there's no telling when he'll pitch again. To say his looming free agency is more complicated as a result is the understatement of the century.

If there's a silver lining for those who would be in the market for the 2021 AL MVP, it's that it might not cost north of $500 million to reel him in after all. In a weird way, his torn UCL might actually broaden his selection of suitors.

As their books are bogged down by $671.5 million worth of deals for Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels would be among the potential beneficiaries. Either way, they'll obviously have an advantage that no other team will have in the Ohtani sweepstakes: familiarity.

But if Ohtani stands firm on his oft-repeated desire to win, the Angels will be at a clear disadvantage. Indeed, it's hard to convince a guy that you're a winner when you've done nothing but lose in his presence.

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 20 GS, 117.2 IP, 100 H (11 HR), 116 K, 31 BB, 3.21 ERA

Status: Signed through 2026 with opt-out after 2023

Eduardo Rodriguez had a chance to leave the Tigers when they and the Dodgers agreed to a deal that would have sent him to Los Angeles. He didn't take it.

"I feel happy with everything," Rodriguez said after exercising his no-trade clause. "My family feels happy in Detroit. I feel happy with the team and the organization, so I'd love to stay here."

Yet the true extent to which Rodriguez is happy in Detroit won't really be known until this winter. In lieu of opting in for the $49 million remaining on his deal, he'll have the option of becoming a free agent again.

Strictly financially speaking, this is the best course for Rodriguez. Including ERA, he is putting up career bests in multiple categories this year after all.

If Rodriguez does opt out, the Tigers may not be the best bet to meet his asking price. Even if they endeavor to spend their way out of their seven-year losing spiral, they'd be best served putting their money toward an offense that's been among the league's worst in each of the last two seasons.

Age: 30

2023 Stats: 27 GS, 149.0 IP, 102 H (15 HR), 193 K, 85 BB, 2.60 ERA

Status: Signed through 2023

Save for maybe Bellinger, no player has done more in 2023 to boost his value ahead of free agency than Blake Snell.

Whereas his first two seasons with the Padres were up-and-down affairs, the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner now finds himself leading the majors in ERA. He hasn't given up more than three runs in any of his last 18 starts, a span in which he has a 1.38 ERA.

Whatever Snell's next contract is, it'll be a fair deal larger than the five-year, $50 million deal he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019. Which, in theory, could be an issue for the Padres.

As noted earlier, their main priorities for the winter figure to be Ohtani and Soto. And while re-signing Snell is arguably a more sensible Plan C than re-signing Hader, it wouldn't necessarily be smart.

The Padres are already locked into deals that will pay Yu Darvish through his age-41 season and Joe Musgrove through his age-34 season. A deal with Snell would require them to pay big money to yet another pitch into his mid-to-late 30s, which is asking for trouble.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

.