NFL Week 1 Picks: Breaking Down Best Value Props and Stars' Outlooks
There is a plethora of talented football players around the NFL, as the league is overflowing with stars in the current era. And on Sunday, many of them will be in action for the first time during the young 2023 campaign.
A slate of 14 season openers fills the Sunday schedule, as the NFL is back after Thursday's opening matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs (which the Lions won 21-20). Now, the season is ramping up into full gear.
It's also an exciting time for bettors, who will look to hit on some profitable wagers over the course of the 18-week regular season and throughout the playoffs. Some of the best bets to make can be on player props within an individual matchup.
With that in mind, here are several player props to consider betting on during Sunday's opening slate of games. (All lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.)
Jalen Hurts over 236.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Over his first three NFL seasons, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has proven capable of making big plays with his legs. But he's also been consistently improving with his arm, as his passing stats have been trending upward throughout his career.
In 2022, Hurts set personal bests in passing yards (3,701) and passing touchdowns (22). Now, the 25-year-old is poised to keep getting better, especially with the Philadelphia offense around him remaining stacked with talent.
Hurts threw for at least 237 yards in eight of his 15 games last season. So it's reasonable to think he could reach that mark Sunday, when the Eagles will be on the road facing the New England Patriots.
It's a favorable matchup for Philadelphia, which is coming off a Super Bowl LVII appearance. But the Pats could keep things close for a while, meaning Hurts will have to go to the air a bit more. If that's the case, he should connect on some deep throws and rack up the yardage, making this prop bet one that's likely to hit.
Jamaal Williams Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Jamaal Williams was a touchdown machine in 2022, getting into the end zone 17 times over his 17 games for the Detroit Lions. All of those scores came on the ground, as he led the NFL in rushing TDs during his second season in Detroit.
Now, Williams has joined the New Orleans Saints, and the 28-year-old is slated to be their lead back while Alvin Kamara serves a three-game suspension. So Williams should get plenty of opportunities during Sunday's season opener vs. the Tennessee Titans.
Even if Williams doesn't rack up a ton of yards, he's always capable of punching in a touchdown when his team gets close to the goal line. The Saints will surely feel confident in using him in those short-yardage situations, given his previous success.
At some point on Sunday, New Orleans will be in one of those situations. And there's a good chance Williams will come through, as he scored a TD in 10 of his 17 games last year.
Calvin Ridley over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Williams won't be the only player making his debut for a new team on Sunday. There will also be wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who is now with the Jacksonville Jaguars after previously playing for the Atlanta Falcons from 2018-21.
It could take the 28-year-old Ridley a little bit to get back to his previous form after serving a suspension for the entirety of the 2022 campaign. But he's on a dynamic Jacksonville offense loaded with talent, and he's the No. 1 playmaker in a receiving corps that should have success working with third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Ridley is a big-play threat, and Lawrence should look his way quite often this season. That connection will begin to develop Sunday, when the Jaguars are set to face the AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts on the road.
Even if Ridley doesn't put up huge numbers in his Jags debut, it's reasonable to expect him to finish with at least 63 yards. It'll be a nice way for him to get in the swing of things before likely having greater success in the weeks to come.
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