MLB Playoffs 2023 Wild-Card and Round-by-Round Picks and Predictions

What began as a field of 30 playoff hopefuls in Major League Baseball has been reduced to 12 actual playoff teams. Over the next few weeks, it will be further reduced until only the World Series champion is left.

But who will that be?

Making that prediction is the task at hand right here and now, so what you'll find ahead are projected winners for the Wild Card Series, Division Series and Championship Series for the American League and National League and, of course, the World Series.

With the action to set to start on Tuesday, here's the bracket:

For anyone who needs a reminder, here's how these series work:

• Wild Card Series: Best of 3, with all 3 at higher seed
• Division Series: Best of 5, with 3 out of 5 at higher seed
• Championship Series: Best of 7, with 4 out of 7 at higher seed 
• World Series: Best of 7, with 4 out of 7 at team with higher regular-season W/L%

As far as what went into these predictions, an obviously necessary ingredient was to consider how teams will match up on the field. As is always the case in these situations, though, there comes a point when one must listen to one's gut.

Regular-Season Records: TOR 89-73, MIN 87-75

Season Series: TOR 3, MIN 3

The Twins may have finished with the worst record out of the American League's six playoff teams, but only three did better than their 47-34 home record at Target Field.

If that's one reason not to underestimate the Twins, another concerns a dominant pitching staff that led the majors in strikeouts and an offense that was one of MLB's best in the second half.

It remains to be seen how much injuries will allow Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and breakout rookie Royce Lewis to contribute going forward. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are one of the healthier teams left.

Besides, you'd swear the Blue Jays prefer not having home-field advantage. They went 46-35 on the road this year, in part because their offense had a .766 OPS compared to a .724 OPS when they played at the Rogers Centre.

It's also not as if Toronto lacks the pitching to match up with the Twins. Before a 12-run barrage by the Tampa Bay Rays spoiled the party, the Blue Jays began the final day of the regular season leading the majors with a 3.74 ERA.

Blue Jays in 3

Regular-Season Records: TEX 90-72, TBR 99-63

Season Series: TEX 4, TBR 2

If you prefer your playoff series to have plentiful offense, this might be the one for you.

The Rangers and Rays were the two highest-scoring teams in the American League this season. They were about equal contributors to a combined pool of 463 home runs, though the Rays stole twice as many bases.

The catch is that neither side is going into this matchup in an ideal standing. With Brandon Lowe, Jose Siri and Luke Raley nursing injuries, Tampa Bay's offense is not at full strength. And unlike Blue Jays hitters, Rangers hitters like home cooking. The club's OPS at home was 107 points higher than it was on the road.

Starting pitching is another area where neither club is where it wants to be. Injuries have left the Rangers without Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, while Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs will be absent for Tampa Bay.

The Rays, though, at least have a functional starting duo in Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, plus another thing the Rangers don't have: a quality bullpen. That may be all they need to survive to the next round.

Rays in 3

Regular-Season Records: ARI 84-78, MIL 92-70

Season Series: ARI 4, MIL 2

If you prefer your playoff series to have plentiful offense, this might not be the one for you.

Even if the last thing the Brewers will want to do is let Corbin Carroll on base, Arizona's offense nonetheless scuffled in scoring 4.1 runs per game (i.e., 0.5 below the MLB average) from the start of July onward.

The Brewers themselves averaged 4.5 runs for the year, but they finished 14th out of 15 National League teams with a meager .385 slugging percentage.

So, it's not so much a question of whether these teams will have a hard time scoring, but rather which one will have the harder time.

With all respect to Arizona's one-two punch of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, it's harder to side against Milwaukee's ability to keep runs off the board. Brewers hurlers are fresh off posting a 2.62 ERA in the team's last 31 games, though a defense that led MLB in Outs Above Average deserves to share in the credit for that.

Otherwise, the Brewers went 49-32 at American Family Field and 51-38 overall against teams with winning records. One is inclined to believe these things also bode well for their chances to move on.

Brewers in 3

Regular-Season Records: MIA 84-77, PHI 90-72

Season Series: MIA 7, PHI 6

The Marlins went 17-10 in September, so nobody can accuse them of metaphorically limping into the playoffs.

But literally? That's fair. With Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez done for the year, they are without, arguably, their two best starting pitchers. And because of an ankle sprain, the Fish were without Luis Arraez and his MLB-leading .354 average in their starting lineup for each of the last seven games of their season.

For their part, the Phillies are uncommonly light on injuries going into the playoffs. And that's just one advantage they'll have in this series.

The Phillies offense was No. 2 in MLB in scoring after Trea Turner finally caught fire on Aug. 5. The club's pitchers likewise led in fWAR after that date, and that wasn't even all Zack Wheeler's doing. Notably, the Phillies bullpen is legit good these days.

The Marlins are thus staring down a very good team, which is a problem given how much trouble teams of any kind of quality gave them in the regular season. Despite their winning record against the Phillies, they went 38-50 against clubs with .500 or better records.

Phillies in 2

Regular-Season Records: TOR 89-73, HOU 90-72

Season Series: TOR 4, HOU 3

This is an odd matchup, if for no other reason than Houston and Toronto share a common bond in not being great on their home turf during the regular season.

The Astros were even worse at Minute Maid Park than the Blue Jays were at the Rogers Centre this season, finishing under water with a 39-42 record at home. By OPS, Houston's offense was 62 points worse at home than on the road.

The Blue Jays have the pitching to potentially exploit that weakness, and Houston's own staff isn't devoid of questions. The big one being what it will get from Framber Valdez, whose final 14 regular-season starts saw him pitch to a 4.66 ERA.

However, if it's a question of which offense is more likely to go off, the needle points toward Houston. Struggles at home notwithstanding, Yordan Álvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman were all hot as the Astros led the AL in scoring in the second half.

It also just feels like the Astros have set a 2000 Yankees-style trap for the playoffs. To be fooled by their regular-season record would be, well, foolish.

Astros in 3

Regular-Season Records: TBR 99-63, BAL 101-61

Season Series: TBR 5, BAL 8

At least where power and speed are concerned, the Rays have a more balanced offense than the Orioles. But it's a different kind of lineup balance that could matter more should they meet in the Division Series.

The proceedings would begin at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, which is among the worst parks for right-handed hitters. This brings us to the percentage of all pitches that righty hitters saw for these teams in the regular season:

• Rays: 62.0 percent
• Orioles: 44.7 percent

That's a potential "oof" for the Rays, and it doesn't require much of a leap to argue that the Orioles' pitching staff is in a better place right now.

It's no accident that Baltimore's ERA dropped 58 points from the first half to the second. Starters Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer combined for a 2.73 ERA and even the loss of Félix Bautista didn't lead to the unravelling of Baltimore's bullpen.

Despite their relative youth and inexperience, another thing about the Orioles is that they just don't get intimidated. They played 90 games against winning teams this year and won 51 of them, the best such performance in the American League.

Orioles in 4

Regular-Season Records: MIL 92-70, LAD 100-62

Season Series: MIL 1, LAD 5

Should the Brewers advance to face the Dodgers in the Division Series, their pitching advantage would be at least half-intact.

With Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta all having posted ERAs in the 2.00s in the second half, Milwaukee's starting pitching is, arguably, the best there is right now.

Not so much for the Dodgers, though, as they had to piece things together around veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw and rookie right-hander Bobby Miller in the stretch run.

What the Dodgers would have on the Brewers, however, is the bullpen advantage. Theirs posted a league-best 2.23 ERA in the second half, with Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Brusdar Graterol and Alex Vesia all putting brilliant finishing touches on their seasons.

Despite Mookie Betts' sudden power outage in September, it also hardly needs to be said that the Dodgers have the better offense. They outscored the Brewers by more than a run per game in the regular season.

Another relevant point is that the Dodgers were close to unbeatable at Dodger Stadium, where they had an MLB-best 53-28 home record. The Brewers might be able to steal one there, but it's hard to imagine any more than that.

Dodgers in 4

Regular-Season Records: PHI 90-72, ATL 104-58

Season Series: PHI 5, ATL 8

It's true what they say about Atlanta. Its offense really is that good.

To not only tie the single-season record of 307 home runs, but to out-homer the next-closest team by 58 is a mindboggling achievement. That Atlanta also stole 132 stolen bases and posted the third-lowest strikeout rate in the NL is...well, what's beyond mindboggling?

The Phillies would be underdogs in this series simply on this account, never mind the fact that Atlanta would have the home-field advantage. And what an advantage it is, as it went 52-29 at Truist Park this season.

But what if the Phillies offense is just as good as Atlanta's? It's not a ridiculous proposition, as the fateful day when Turner got rolling also marked the start of a stretch in which the Phillies not only outscored but also out-homered and out-stole Atlanta.

And whereas Philadelphia's pitching is at full strength, Atlanta's is very much not with Charlie Morton out for the Division Series and Max Fried coming off an absence with a blister.

All of which is to say that the upset potential in this matchup would be very high indeed.

Phillies in 5

Regular-Season Records: HOU 90-72, BAL 101-61

Season Series: HOU 3, BAL 3

Should the Orioles and Astros meet in the American League Championship Series, the old guard would meet the new.

The Orioles last went to the World Series in 1983, a long time ago when their best player was a 22-year-old shortstop named Cal Ripken Jr. The Astros, meanwhile, have been four times and won twice since 2017.

All the same, that the Orioles would have the home-field advantage would put Houston at a similar disadvantage as the Rays. Despite the presence of Álvarez, Tucker and Michael Brantley, its offense actually skews more right-handed than Tampa Bay's.

The pitching side of things would also favor Baltimore. Whereas the O's have at least three viable starters and a bullpen that's stacked even without Bautista, Justin Verlander won't have a co-ace if Valdez continues to struggle and closer Ryan Pressly had his own issues in the final weeks of the regular season.

Besides, the last time these two teams met almost felt like a changing of the guard in its own right. Though the Orioles had to settle for two out of three, they were five outs from sweeping the Astros in Houston on Sep. 20.

Orioles in 6

Regular-Season Records: PHI 90-72, LAD 100-62

Season Series: PHI 2, LAD 4

The Dodgers mostly made it look easy against the Phillies this year, not only winning four out of six but also by outscoring them by 29 runs.

Yet the last of those games was way back on June 11. Much has changed since then, including in ways that wouldn't bode so well for the Dodgers should they meet the Phillies again in the National League Championship Series.

Whereas the Dodgers once had Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin in their rotation, the former was removed following his arrest on felony domestic violence assault charges and the latter is out with Tommy John surgery.

Once a defining strength, Los Angeles' starting pitching was a liability marked by a 4.64 ERA in the latter half of the regular season.

And while the Dodgers' offense is unquestionably better than Milwaukee's, would anyone take it over Philadelphia's at this point? Knowing how dangerous the Phillies offense was in the final two months of the regular season, that's certainly not the inclination here.

If the question is what the Dodgers do better than the Phillies, relief pitching is one clear answer. It's just not enough to assume they'd be able to get past the defending National League champs with a trip to the World Series on the line.

Phillies in 7

Regular-Season Records: PHI 90-72, BAL 101-61

Season Series: PHI 2, BAL 1

If this ends up being the matchup for the 2023 World Series, the Orioles' opponent in their first trip to the Fall Classic in 40 years would be the same one they faced last time.

Historical tidbits aside, that the Orioles would again have home-field advantage means it's time to run the numbers on the percentage of pitches seen by right-handed hitters:

• Phillies: 50.8 percent
• Orioles: 44.7 percent

In other words, the Phillies wouldn't be as disadvantaged in Baltimore as Tampa Bay and Houston. Especially not considering their top left-handed hitters—Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh—are a combined 20 percent above average.

There's otherwise no appreciable difference between these teams from a run prevention perspective, be it from overall ERAs or that of defensive efficiency. To that end, at least, the Phillies and Orioles almost feel like mirror images of each other.

The "almost" is necessary, though, because the Orioles differentiate themselves by doing the little things just as well as they do the big things. Things like, say, gaining and denying the platoon advantage, taking extra bases and turning double plays. Basically, they're just plain good at playing baseball.

A final message for the Orioles: Sorry for the jinx, but you're welcome for the confidence.

Orioles in 6

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.