Realistic MLB Trades That Could Happen In 2023-24 Offseason

MLB's 2023-24 offseason will be here soon, and the weakness of the upcoming free-agent class could potentially make for a fun trade market.

That idea is at least worth running with, so let's cook up some nice, juicy trades.

Ah, but not just any trades. They must be realistic on some level, including in the sense that the centerpiece of the deal must be an actual candidate to get traded this winter.

For example, Mike Trout doesn't seem to want out of Anaheim despite speculation to the contrary. There's also bound to be renewed speculation on Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, but it's likely to go as far as it did last time (i.e., nowhere).

Still, none of the eight trade proposals you're about to read should be mistaken for promises. They're more like predictions, partially based on solid reporting but more so rooted in imagination.

Let's count 'em down in order of the size of the impact they would make.

Why It Makes Sense for the Miami Marlins

Even though Trevor Rogers missed almost the whole season and Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez ended it on the IL, the Marlins still led the majors in WAR from 20-something starters.

Between that and how the Marlins finished last in the National League in scoring, they're practically asking people to dream up arm-for-bat swaps. And if it's Edward Cabrera who ultimately ends up in trade rumors this winter, well, it wouldn't be for the first time.

Why It Makes Sense for the Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott are talented, but the Reds will still need to have starting pitching on their offseason shopping list after their rotation finished this year with a 28th-ranked 5.43 ERA.

It wouldn't be like them to sign any high-end pitchers in free agency, so it's pretty much the trade market or bust if they go after those types. While Cabrera isn't one of those yet, his electric stuff and club control through 2028 allow for ample optimism.

Trade Proposal: Cincinnati Reds get RHP Edward Cabrera; Miami Marlins get 2B Jonathan India and SS Edwin Arroyo

The concept here is similar to the one the Marlins reportedly discussed with the Colorado Rockies last winter, which would have brought Brendan Rodgers back to Miami. The Reds would give up the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year and one of their top prospects, but neither is necessarily a precious asset while the club is swimming in young infielders.

Why It Makes Sense for the Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber's journey since winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2020 has been one of ups and downs. He's pitched to a 3.22 ERA but has been limited to 68 starts by shoulder and elbow injuries.

Meanwhile, the arrivals of Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams this year heralded a new era for Cleveland's starting rotation. And if they were to remove Bieber from the equation, the Guardians would duck a raise on his $10 million salary in 2024.

Why It Makes Sense for the Boston Red Sox

No matter who takes the reins from Chaim Bloom, starting pitching must be a top priority for the Red Sox this winter. Of the 17 pitchers who started games for them this year, only 24-year-old Brayan Bello was any kind of reliable.

The Red Sox could simply sign Aaron Nola, Lucas Giolito or Jordan Montgomery in free agency. But Bieber has higher upside than any of them, and the fact that he's only under club control through 2024 would hopefully mitigate his acquisition cost.

Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get RHP Shane Bieber; Cleveland Guardians get RF Alex Verdugo and OF Wilyer Abreu

In this swap of post-2024 free agents, the Red Sox would get their reliable starter and the Guardians would get immediate help for right field in Verdugo and something of a wild card in Abreu. He's not a blue-chip prospect, but he hit well at both Triple-A and MLB this year.

Why It Makes Sense for the Seattle Mariners

It wasn't for lack of talent in their rotation that the Mariners missed the playoffs. And their surplus can only grow, as Robbie Ray, Emerson Hancock and Marco Gonzales are due back from injuries in 2024.

If the Mariners seek to subtract from this surplus for the sake of adding to their offense, Logan Gilbert would be the logical candidate to go. He isn't their ace, but his command, durability and club control through 2027 would be sure to attract a crowd.

Why It Makes Sense for the St. Louis Cardinals

There's no need to speculate about whether the Cardinals would like to have Gilbert. Even as their 2023 season was failing to launch, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported in July that the club had the righty on its radar.

Gilbert would certainly be a welcome addition to a Cardinals rotation that posted a 5.07 ERA this season, and there's at least one reason to believe they can make a deal happen: Whereas the Mariners have excess arms, the Cardinals have excess bats.

Trade Proposal: St. Louis Cardinals get RHP Logan Gilbert; Seattle Mariners get 2B Nolan Gorman, INF/OF Brendan Donovan and LF Tyler O'Neill

The Cardinals would presumably only do this deal if they're comfortable moving with Masyn Winn and Tommy Edman as their double play combination. If so, the deal would net Seattle much-needed help at second base and two guys who could shore up their outfield on either side of Julio Rodríguez.

Why It Makes Sense for the Tampa Bay Rays

There's a strong case that trading Tyler Glasnow doesn't make sense for the Rays. With Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz recovering from elbow surgeries, they aren't awash with healthy starters.

Yet the elephant in the room is the elephant-sized payday that Glasnow is due in 2024, as his salary will increase nearly fivefold to $25 million. That's a lot of money for the Rays, much less for a guy who's topped 100 innings only twice in eight seasons.

Why It Makes Sense for the Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are used to having excellent starting pitching, but not this year, as their rotation crumbled to the tune of a 4.57 ERA. That's the only excuse they should need to pursue help this winter, although Clayton Kershaw will give them another if he retires.

If nothing else, the thought of Glasnow pairing up with fellow tall, hard-throwing righty Bobby Miller makes this concept intriguing. And since they tend to have a risk-averse approach, it would be up the Dodgers' alley more than handing a huge check to a free agent.

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get RHP Tyler Glasnow; Tampa Bay Rays get RHP Emmet Sheehan and RHP Gavin Stone

There's a question of how much value Glasnow has beyond what he'll be paid in 2024, but it's hard to imagine the Rays offloading him without getting controllable arms back. In this case, they'd get a 23-year-old and 24-year-old who already have MLB experience.

Why It Makes Sense for the Chicago White Sox

Although the White Sox may be rebuilding, it's fair to ask whether this winter is the right time for them to move Dylan Cease. After finishing 2022 as the runner-up in the AL Cy Young Award voting, he mostly struggled this year en route to a 4.58 ERA.

Cease nonetheless struck out 214 batters over 177 innings, and any team interested in trading for him could perhaps hope to curb his habit for issuing free passes. The righty would come with two additional years of club control after 2023.

Why It Makes Sense for the Houston Astros

When the Astros were in dire need of a co-ace for Framber Valdez during the summer, MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported that a trade for Cease was their "dream" acquisition

This was before they brought Justin Verlander back to Houston, and he's under contract for next season as well. But since there are still questions after him and Valdez in the rotation, it's not beyond the pale to think Houston will take another look at Cease.

Trade Proposal: Houston Astros get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get C Yainer Diaz and RHP J.P. France

The Astros would be paying a heavy price here, as 2024 should be the year that they move on from Martin Maldonado with Diaz taking his place behind the plate. But knowing how big of a problem catcher is for the White Sox and how little Houston has in its farm system, it could be this or nothing.

Why It Makes Sense for the New York Mets

Which direction the Mets decide to take will be perhaps the most fascinating story of the offseason. Should they opt to continue the teardown they started this summer, Pete Alonso would be all but certain to go.

It wouldn't be easy to say goodbye, both because Alonso leads MLB in home runs since 2019 and because he's well-liked in the clubhouse. But unless he signs a contract extension, he's going to be a free agent after 2024.

Why It Makes Sense for the Chicago Cubs

The Cubs tried all sorts of guys at first base this year, but the only two who provided any stability were Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario. Assuming Bellinger declines his mutual option for 2024, both are about to be free agents.

On the Hit and Run with Matt Speigel podcast, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said the Cubs "are going to do everything they can" to get Alonso and fix their issues at first base for good. Or at least, for 2024.

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get 1B Pete Alonso and C Kevin Parada; New York Mets get RHP Cade Horton and 1B Matt Mervis

There won't be many impact bats on the open market this winter, so the Mets would be in position to demand an overpay for Alonso. That's where Horton comes in, as B/R's Joel Reuter has him ranked as MLB's No. 17 prospect. But since Parada is somewhat superfluous underneath Francisco Álvarez, the Cubs could angle for him as a deal-sweetener.

Why It Makes Sense for the Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers and Corbirn Burnes are currently focused on knocking the Arizona Diamondbacks out of the Wild Card Series, not on the business that awaits this winter.

The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner has nonetheless been a regular in trade rumors over the last few years, in part because it's no secret that the arbitration process has soured his relationship with the team. Rather than risk further ruination, the Brewers could be keen to shop him ahead of his walk year in 2024.

Why It Makes Sense for the New York Mets

A trade for Burnes will only make sense for the Mets if they decide to pull a 180 and buy this winter. If so, they could have a unique edge should they decide to push for Burnes.

David Stearns was previously Milwaukee's president of baseball operations before taking the same post with the Mets. It was under him that the Brewers drafted and developed Burnes, who would fit nicely in the void in New York's rotation left by the Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer trades.

Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get SS/2B Ronny Mauricio and OF Ryan Clifford

The Brewers need offense, plain and simple. In this trade, they'd get a power-hitting middle infielder to pair with Willy Adames and an outfield prospect who hit 24 home runs in 115 games in the low minors this season.

Why It Makes Sense for the San Diego Padres

It wasn't Juan Soto's fault that the Padres fell spectacularly short of expectations in 2023. He did his usual thing in getting on base at a .410 clip and hit a career-high 35 home runs.

A pivot is nonetheless in the Padres' future, with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reporting that they aim to cut payroll. As Soto is due a raise on his $23 million salary and is due for free agency after 2024, he could be fodder for the chopping block.

Why It Makes Sense for the New York Yankees

After a disappointing season of their own, the Yankees must have at least two priorities this winter. One is to get younger. Another is to get at least one left-handed hitter, lest their lineup remain unforgivably right-handed.

In these respects, the 24-year-old Soto is the best possible solution for the Yankees. And the two parties have been linked before, as the team was believed to be a possibility for him as they and the Padres were both experiencing choppy waters in July.

Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get LF Juan Soto; San Diego Padres get OF Spencer Jones and RHP Chase Hampton

The Padres probably won't recoup what they originally gave up to get Soto in 2022, but they'll have a strong hand by way of the open market's dearth of bats. This would see them parlay that hand into two prospects on MLB.com's top 100 list, headlined by the 6'6", 235-pound Jones.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.