NFL Picks Week 5: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets

It's becoming more difficult than ever to predict how NFL teams will perform on a week-to-week basis in 2023.

There are outliers to be sure—the San Francisco 49ers have won every game comfortably, while the Chicago Bears appear to have no interest in winning—but there is a wide swath of middle-of-the-road teams this season.

Rather than picking winners, it can be easier to examine past performances, individual matchups and injury reports to determine how games will be played instead. For fans so inclined, this can make over/under lines a far more intriguing betting option.

Below, we'll sort through some of what we've seen over the first four weeks and examine our favorite over/under bets for Week 5.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The good news for the Denver Broncos is that quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense have shown improvement under head coach Sean Payton. Denver got its first win of the season in Week 4, Wilson has a 106.7 passer rating, and the Broncos are averaging 25 points per game.

The bad news is that Denver's defense has been atrocious. It ranks 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed and dead-last in points allowed.

The New York Jets, meanwhile, finally got a great game out of quarterback Zach Wilson, albeit in a loss, against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Wilson finished 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

"If he plays that way we're going to win a lot of football games," Jets head coach Robert Saleh told reporters after the game.

The Jets scored 20 points against a good Chiefs defense. If Wilson has another solid outing, and New York can get Breece Hall and the ground game rolling, it will top that number against a bad Denver D.

Yes, New York's defense is solid, and we've seen more bad than good from the Jets defense thus far. However, the early line still feels low, given the recent performances by the Broncos offense and defense.

While the early line is low for a general NFL game, it actually feels a little high given the start of the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots offenses.

Saints quarterback Derek Carr is still dealing with a shoulder injury, and New Orleans' offense wasn't exactly great when he was healthy. The Saints have not scored more than 20 points in a game this season and average 15.5 points per game.

The Patriots, meanwhile, lack receiving weapons and have largely tried leaning on Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott while allowing Mac Jones to play game manager. That plan hasn't really worked, and New England has averaged just 13.75 points per game.

This feels likely to be another low-scoring affair, and if there's any reason for concern about hitting the over, it's New England's significant defensive injuries.

Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez is expected to miss time with a dislocated shoulder, while pass-rusher Matthew Judon is out indefinitely with a torn biceps.

If the absence of Gonzalez and Judon are enough to spark the Saints offense, there's a chance that it hits the over. It's worth noting, though that three of New England's games and all of New Orleans' contests have been at 41 total points or fewer.

The Arizona Cardinals have been surprisingly competitive in 2023, even if they only have a 1-3 record to show for it. Quarterback Joshua Dobbs (99.4 QB rating) has played well and has yet to throw an interception. James Conner has been a solid running back, and Arizona has lost only one game by a touchdown or more—against the aforementioned 49ers.

However, the Cardinals, who have averaged 22 points per game, haven't exactly been an offensive juggernaut.

This week, Arizona will host a Cincinnati Bengals team that has allowed 23.5 points per game but has been stagnant offensively. The Bengals have been hindered by Joe Burrow's ongoing calf issues and have averaged a mere 12.25 points per game.

Cincinnati has yet to score a touchdown in the first half or on the road this season.

With wide receiver Tee Higgins battling a fractured rib, it seems unlikely that the Bengals will suddenly find their offensive groove this week.

It will likely take an offensive resurgence by the Bengals for this game to reach 45 points. That's always a possibility, but at this point, it feels much more likely that this one will hit the under. Cincinnati has only seen one game with more than 35 total points this season.

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