UFC 284: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Paulo Costa Head-to-Toe Breakdown

We've still got quite a bit of waiting to do before UFC 284, which is set for October 24 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, but anticipation for the card is already building. That's due in large part to the main event, which will see lightweight champion Islam Makhachev defend his belt against former champ Charles Oliveira, but the co-main event deserves just as much credit.

Co-headlining honors for the card will go to a middleweight clash between rising contender Khamzat Chimaev and former title challenger Paulo Costa.

Chimaev (11-0) was making great headway at welterweight before he was ostracized from the division for a massive scale fail, but he remains one of the biggest stars in the UFC and a fighter many see as a future champ—maybe in multiple weight classes.

Costa (14-2), meanwhile, is plenty popular himself, as beloved for his relentless aggression in the Octagon as he is for his eccentric personality outside of it.

Neither man is in the middleweight title picture right now—due mostly to their recent inactivity and troubles on the scale—but a win in this fight will change that. In fact, it's possible that an impressive victory from either fighter could set up a showdown with Sean Strickland, Israel Adesanya, Dricus Du Plessis, or whomever is holding the belt in early 2024.

Who comes out on top? The oddsmakers favor Chimaev, but Costa has the power to stop anybody, and the durability and defense to frustrate even the most dangerous finishers.

Keep scrolling to see how the two middleweights match up on paper, and for our best shot at a prediction.

Neither Costa nor Chimaev is on the level of strikers like Israel Adesanya or Alex Pereira, but they are both plenty capable of fighting on the feet.

Of the two, Costa is slightly more proven in this department. He has finished 11 of his 14 victories with his striking, and the majority of those were set up on the feet, rather than with ground-and-pound.

Chimaev has only won five of his 11 fights with his striking, and several of those were on the ground, but his 17-second knockout of Gerald Meerschaert in 2020—his lone bout in the UFC middleweight division to date—showed that he has plenty of pop in his punches.

He and Costa are fully capable of knocking each other out.

In terms of the finer details, Chimaev actually has slightly higher output than Costa (7.3 strikes landed per minute to 6.5). He also absorbs significantly less punishment (6.38 strikes per minute to 3.98). This, however, is more a reflection of Costa's wild, high-risk style than a glaring technical flaw. He doesn't mind eating a few shots to land a big one of his own, and this style should continue to serve him well until his iron chin begins to deteriorate, which could of course happen at any moment.

All that's to say it is totally possible Chimaev lands something clean and puts Costa down, but as long as Costa's durability holds up, the more likely scenario is that he will have a slight upper hand on the feet.

Edge: Costa

While Costa and Chimaev should be fairly competitive on the feet, there is no question which of them is the better wrestler. Chimaev is leagues ahead of his Brazilian rival in that department.

The unbeaten contender has competed as a freestyle wrestler since he emigrated from Chechnya to Sweden, and he collected a handful of national titles there to establish himself as one of the country's top wrestlers.

His wrestling skill—and willingness to use that skill—are both reflected in the stats.

While his takedown accuracy rate is only 57 percent, he still completes nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon, which is huge. He also has a 100 percent takedown defence in the UFC so far, though that is probably due in part to the fact that most people are smart enough to avoid initiating wrestling exchanges with him.

Costa can wrestle too—he completes just over 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and boasts a 75 percent accuracy rate—but compared to Chimaev, he's out of his depth. The good news is that he has a strong 79 percent takedown defense rate, which should serve him well in this fight.

Edge: Chimaev

Chimaev also has a clear edge in terms of submissions in this matchup.

While he has shown he can end fights on the feet, he has more commonly used his world-class wrestling to drag fights to the mat and finish things with his jiu jitsu there. The proof is in his record. He has finished six of his 11 victories by submission, and two of those via D'arce choke, which could fairly be called one of his specialties.

Costa, meanwhile, has just one submission win on his 16-fight pro record. As is often the case, that is more reflective of his striking skill than a grappling weakness, but there's no question he'll be in danger for every moment he spends on the mat with Chimaev, who attempts a hefty 3.5 submissions per 15 minutes in the Octagon.

Of course, it's also worth noting that Costa has never been submitted before, despite tangling with solid grapplers like Luke Rockhold, Marvin Vettori, Yoel Romero and Garreth McLellan, who many fans have probably forgotten but was a definite submission threat in his heyday.

Edge: Chimaev

Costa's X-Factor: Size and strength

Chimaev has fought in the middleweight division before, and if his horrendous failure to make weight for his last welterweight fight is any indication, this is the division he belongs in. However, he may find that many of the advantages he enjoyed as a welterweight do not exist at middleweight, particularly against Costa, who himself struggles to make the division's 186-pound limit.

Costa needs to use this to his advantage. He needs to throw all of his weight and power at Chimaev. He needs to bully his foe with such severity that the Chechen juggernaut begins to wonder if maybe it's worth enduring the brutal cut down to 170 pounds after all.

Chimaev's X-Factor: Momentum

In the early chapters of Chimaev's UFC run, momentum was his main claim to fame. He famously scored his first three wins in the span of a few weeks, and after that frenetic run, looked like he could be in title contention in a matter of months. The man was a runaway train.

But momentum is longer on his side. In fact, after rattling off his first three UFC wins in record time, it took him almost two years to collect three more wins, and it has now been over a year since we've seen him in the Octagon.

This isn't to suggest he will be a worse fighter in his UFC 284 return, but ring rust is real, and he may find his timing and reflexes aren't quite on the level they were when he was fighting every few weeks. That could be a problem against Costa who, as we've covered, is typically extremely aggressive.

The oddsmakers have listed Chimaev as the favourite in this fight for a reason. He has a real shot at beating Costa on the feet, and several clear paths to victory on the mat, whether he chooses to lean on his suffocating wrestling, his submissions, or his ground and pound.

Still, Costa can take it as good as he dishes it out, and Chimaev may find that stoppages do not come as easily at middleweight as they did at welterweight.

Our crystal ball shows the two fan favourites having some exciting exchanges on the feet, and Chimaev looking to his takedowns with enough regularity and success to convince the judges that he deserves the win.

It might look a bit like Chimaev's 2022 win over Gilbert Burns, only with a little more grappling, as Costa doesn't have the jiu jitsu skill to dissuade his foe from wrestling.

Prediction: Chimaev by decision