Bleacher Report's Week 6 NFL Picks

NFL bettors should tread carefully as they look over double-digit spreads this weekend. While the public likes the favorites in most of those games, we have some data that may sway you in the other direction.

According to John Ewing of BetMGM, winless teams against the spread in October or later have gone 71-61-5 ATS, and underdogs that are winless ATS have gone 50-36-3. The Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, all three of whom are double-digit underdogs this week, are currently winless ATS.

Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, picked three underdogs for the upcoming slate, but did they take the points in any of the double-digit lines?

Let's find out, but first, check out the ATS and straight-up standings through Week 5 with last week's results in paratheses.

ATS Standings

T-1. Davenport: 42-34-2 (7-7)

T-1. Sobleski: 42-34-2 (9-5)

T-3. Gagnon: 39-37-2 (6-8)

T-3. Knox: 39-37-2 (9-5)

T-3 Moton: 39-37-2 (9-5)

T-3. O'Donnell: 39-37-2 (4-10)

7. Hanford 38-38-2 (8-6)

Consensus picks: 40-36-2

SU Standings

1. Hanford 50-28 (8-6)

T-2. Knox: 49-29 (9-5)

T-2. Moton: 49-29 (9-5)

T-2 O'Donnell: 49-29 (7-7)

5. Sobleski: 48-30 (7-7)

6. Davenport: 46-32 (6-8)

7. Gagnon: 45-33 (7-7)

Consensus picks: 47-31

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Oct. 11, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by TeamRankings.

DraftKings Line: Kansas City -10.5

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos will kick off Week 6 on Thursday night at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City has won 15 straight games against Denver, but the Broncos just need to cover a double-digit spread for bettors to cash in on them.

Last year, the Broncos lost by six and three points to the Chiefs during a disastrous year under former head coach Nathaniel Hackett. Moton and O'Donnell like Denver to keep it close again on a short week, but Davenport expects Kansas City to run away with this game.

"ALL THE POINTS EVER: Do you know how many first downs the Broncos had on their first five drives of the second half last week? Here's a hint: It's the same as their chances of being in this game at intermission," Davenport quipped.

"In an effort to build morale on defense this week, the Broncos scrimmaged against Skinner Middle School, and 12-year-old Scorpions running back Timmy Fleming racked up 137 yards on nine carries. Patrick Mahomes could take a bath during this game and let Jake from State Farm throw passes to Taylor Swift, and the Chiefs would still top 400 yards of offense.

"The Chiefs don't have a true statement win this season. They will after this."

Predictions

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Chiefs

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Broncos

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Chiefs

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -10.5

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Broncos 17

DK Line: Baltimore -4

The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will battle at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London to kick off the Sunday slate. Alhough both clubs lost to divisional opponents last week, we have a lot more trust in the Ravens to rebound from their sloppy, three-turnover 17-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In Week 5, the Indianapolis Colts shredded the Titans' run defense for 193 yards and two scores. If Lamar Jackson and Co. keep it simple and protect the football, Baltimore should win decisively over a squad that's averaging only 17.6 points per game.

Gagnon doesn't think Tennessee is in the same class as Baltimore in terms of the NFL hierarchy and laid the points with the Ravens.

"Baltimore is a lot better than what we saw in Week 5 in Pittsburgh. The Ravens followed up their last loss with an emphatic 28-3 road victory, and I'm expecting something similar here. It's odd they're giving up only a handful of points in a neutral site against a clearly inferior opponent that couldn't stop the Colts even without Anthony Richardson in Week 5."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Ravens

Hanford: Ravens

Knox: Ravens

Moton: Ravens

O'Donnell: Ravens

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: Ravens -4

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Titans 17

DK Line: Miami -13.5

The Miami Dolphins bounced back from their 48-20 loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 with a 31-16 victory over the New York Giants, but sensational rookie running back De'Von Achane suffered a knee injury that will sideline him for at least the next four weeks.

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the Dolphins plan to place Achane on injured reserve. However, they won't need him to wipe out the winless Carolina Panthers.

While our panel has the utmost confidence in the Dolphins to win the game with receiving yards leader Tyreek Hill healthy, Moton made the case to take the points in favor of Carolina.

"For this game, you should fade the public," Moton wrote. "While the Dolphins field a high-powered offense that etched another spot in the record books this past weekend (h/t Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper), don't overlook their 26th-ranked scoring defense.

"Coming off his most productive pro performance—he threw for 247 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Detroit Lions—2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young could show more glimpses of promise against Miami's 20th-ranked pass defense.

"The Dolphins beat the Giants at home by 15 points last week, but the Panthers should fare a little better at Hard Rock Stadium with Young, who seems capable of moving the ball on a leaky defense. The Dolphins will win, but the Panthers cover a massive spread."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Panthers

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -13.5

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Panthers 17

DK Line: Cincinnati -2.5

In Week 5, the Cincinnati Bengals offense finally looked like the unit that ranked seventh in scoring last year. The Bengals went on the road to throttle the Arizona Cardinals 34-20, and Joe Burrow had his best game of the season, throwing for 317 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

Perhaps Burrow has put his calf injury behind him, but he faces a tough opponent with the Seattle Seahawks' sixth-ranked scoring offense headed to Cincinnati. Seattle had extra time to prepare for this game, as it's coming off a bye week.

Most of our crew favors Cincinnati by a field goal, but Knox has a big issue with the Bengals' defense, specifically against the run.

"I get the idea of jumping back on the Bengals' bandwagon after a two-touchdown victory in Arizona. However, Cincinnati only won decisively because head coach Zac Taylor finally figured out that feeding Ja'Marr Chase would be a good way to get Burrow going. The Seahawks are coming off their bye and will have two weeks to figure out how to slow Chase.

"Cincinnati's defense has not been good, especially against the run, and Seattle has far more offensive playmakers than Arizona did—especially after running back James Conner exited in the second quarter. The Bengals may need to generate multiple turnovers to win here, and Seattle has given it away only once this season."

Predictions

Davenport: Bengals

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Seahawks

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Bengals

ATS Consensus: Bengals -2.5

SU Consensus: Bengals

Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Seahawks 24

DK Line: Jacksonville -4

The Jacksonville Jaguars picked up two wins in London, and they'll look to notch their third straight victory as they prepare for a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts for pole position in the AFC South.

The Jaguars have seven consecutive home wins against the Colts in Jacksonville (not counting the one game at Wembley Stadium during the 2016 campaign), and they covered this week's spread in all seven of those victories.

Our panel slightly leaned toward Jacksonville, though Sobleski believes Gardner Minshew, who is now in his third year in Colts head coach Shane Steichen's offense, can help his team keep the margin within a field goal or pull out a victory.

"After spending the past week-and-a-half in London, the Jaguars will have to adjust to being back stateside," Sobleski noted. "Meanwhile, the Colts enter this game knowing Minshew is their starting quarterback after they placed Anthony Richardson (AC joint sprain) on short-term injured reserve. Those adjustments may favor the Colts, who can lean into a run-based offense and a sound defense.

"Trevor Lawrence will put up numbers against Gus Bradley's defense, but the Colts have the formula to keep it close and possibly pull out the victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Colts

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Jaguars

Knox: Jaguars

Moton: Jaguars

O'Donnell: Colts

Sobleski: Colts

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -4

SU Consensus: Jaguars

Score Prediction: Jaguars 27, Colts 21

DK Line: Minnesota -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings placed wideout Justin Jefferson on short-term injured reserve on Wednesday, which will keep him out for at least four games. He's accounted for nearly 32 percent of the Vikings' total yards through five weeks.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins will likely lean on tight end T.J. Hockenson, rookie first-rounder Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn as his primary trio of pass-catchers, but the Vikings won't have their dominant receiver in what should be a tight game. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears offense has trended up over the past few weeks with Justin Fields' passing performances.

Moton has bought some stock in Fields and believes the quarterback can continue to stack quality outings against Minnesota's 22nd-ranked pass defense, which has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns (nine) this season.

"The Vikings won't have Jefferson, and Fields has found his groove over the past two weeks, throwing for eight touchdowns and just one interception," Moton wrote. "Even without Jefferson, Cousins could throw for 250-plus yards and multiple touchdowns, but the Bears offense has a more dynamic signal-caller under center in Fields, who rushed for 57 yards against the Washington Commanders last Thursday.

"In a potentially high-scoring matchup with two porous defenses on the field, the Bears get the nod because Fields looks like he's comfortable throwing and running the ball as a dual-threat playmaker. Chicago wins outright."

Predictions

Davenport: Bears

Gagnon: Bears

Hanford: Bears

Knox: Bears

Moton: Bears

O'Donnell: Bears

Sobleski: Bears

ATS Consensus: Bears +2.5

SU Consensus: Bears

Score Prediction: Bears 24, Vikings 23

DK Line: New Orleans -1.5

The New Orleans Saints snapped a two-game skid and looked like world-beaters in a 34-0 road win over the New England Patriots last week.

But the public doesn't quite believe in the Saints. As of Wednesday, 65 percent of bettors placed wagers on the Houston Texans, who lost 21-19 on the road in Atlanta but boast a 3-1 record as underdogs ATS this season.

Hanford went against his fellow panelists to side with the public on Houston:

"Every time I check the NFL standings, I'm surprised to see the Saints have a winning record. Yes, the defense is as good as ever. But what is the offense? Derek Carr is banged up. Chris Olave has struggled. Michael Thomas has basically become Jarvis Landry, which is fine but not enough on a team starved for playmakers. Alvin Kamara has given them a boost since his return, but is he enough to elevate an entire unit?

"This isn't to say the Texans' offense is good overall either, because it's not, but C.J. Stroud is. The Texans QB is third in the NFL in passing yards, and I trust him to make a few key plays at home. Houston struggled to move the ball against a stingy Atlanta defense in Week 5 but still managed to cover.

"This feels like a letdown game for the Saints in their second straight road game after a beatdown win over the Patriots in Week 5. I like the Texans to find a way to pull off the minor upset."

Predictions

Davenport: Saints

Gagnon: Saints

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Saints

Moton: Saints

O'Donnell: Saints

Sobleski: Saints

ATS Consensus: Saints -1.5

SU Consensus: Saints

Score Prediction: Saints 23, Texans 20

DK Line: San Francisco -5.5

Before their Week 5 bye, the Cleveland Browns took a 28-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens without quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was medically cleared to play but did not suit up for the game as he continued to heal from a shoulder issue.

After a week off, head coach Kevin Stefanski still isn't sure about Watson's status for this matchup and called him "day-to-day." If he doesn't start, P.J. Walker will fill in for him, per Brad Stainbrook of the Orange and Brown Report.

Because of the uncertainty around Watson and a key injury along the offensive line, Sobleski sided with the undefeated San Francisco 49ers to cover the spread.

"Typically, an advantage automatically goes to a team coming off a bye week thanks to extra preparation time and a chance to get healthy," he wrote. "However, Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is still nursing a shoulder injury. Whether he plays or not, he won't be 100 percent.

"To make matters worse, All-Pro left guard Joel Bitonio is also dealing with an injury that required him to leave the previous week's game on crutches, according to Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com. The Browns are running into a buzzsaw that is the league's best team, and they're far from being in tip-top shape."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: Browns

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: 49ers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -5.5

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Browns 17

DK Line: Atlanta -2.5

After a 2-0 start, the Washington Commanders have dropped three consecutive games, with two of those losses by 20-plus points.

The Commanders haven't been able to protect Sam Howell, who's taken the most sacks (29) leaguewide. Moreover, Washington's defense has regressed from last year's seventh-ranked scoring unit, giving up 33 or more points in four consecutive contests.

Yet our panel nearly split on this matchup, likely because the Atlanta Falcons have gone through rough stretches on offense. They have scored the sixth-fewest points per game through five weeks.

Knox made the final call for this game with a lean toward the Falcons and their ability to play a more physical style of football:

"Atlanta hasn't run the ball as efficiently as it did a year ago, and it has really struggled to pressure opposing passers. However, stopping the run and protecting the quarterback are Washington's two biggest weaknesses. I expect the Falcons to find more success on the ground and with the pass rush than they've had all season.

"Desmond Ridder is coming off his best game as a pro and will face a Commanders secondary that made Justin Fields look like the good version of Jay Cutler last Thursday night. I'd expect a bit of back and forth in this one, but home-field advantage should be enough to give Atlanta a field-goal victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Gagnon: Falcons

Hanford: Commanders

Knox: Falcons

Moton: Falcons

O'Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Falcons

ATS Consensus: Falcons -2.5

SU Consensus: Falcons

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Commanders 21

DK Line: Las Vegas -3

After a 34-0 home loss to the New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick told reporters that the team has to "start all over" to make improvements.

Nonetheless, it seems as though New England won't start fresh at quarterback. Belichick confirmed that Mac Jones will start Sunday.

While Jones isn't to blame for all six of his interceptions, the Patriots field a sloppy offense that's tied for third in turnovers (10).

Ironically, the Las Vegas Raiders have the second-most turnovers (11) leaguewide.

We could see a sloppy game between the Patriots and Raiders, but Moton expects the Silver and Black to pull out a victory by more than a field goal.

"The Raiders and Patriots rank 29th and last, respectively, in scoring," he wrote. "These teams may not score more than 40 points combined, but Las Vegas gets the edge because it has the better players at the offensive skill positions.

"Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will be the two best receivers on the field. Though Josh Jacobs only averages a meager 2.9 yards per carry, he's scored a touchdown in consecutive outings.

"In Jones' last 12 starts, New England is 0-12 as an underdog ATS, per John Ewing of BetMGM. Vegas wins a low-scoring 20-16 game with the better playmakers on its sideline."

Predictions

Davenport: Raiders

Gagnon: Raiders

Hanford: Raiders

Knox: Raiders

Moton: Raiders

O'Donnell: Patriots

Sobleski: Raiders

ATS Consensus: Raiders -3

SU Consensus: Raiders

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Patriots 16

DK Line: Philadelphia -6.5

After an emotional win over the Denver Broncos in the Hackett Bowl, the New York Jets will host one of the league's two undefeated teams in the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles haven't racked up a ton of style points in their victories, but they're 3-1-1 as favorites ATS this season.

The Jets have scored multiple offensive touchdowns in just one out of their five contests, and the Eagles have limited two of their last three opponents to 14 or fewer points.

Hanford likes the numbers in favor of Philadelphia with the expectation that it attacks New York's 29th-ranked run defense:

"The Jets offense has seemed to hit its stride a bit in the last two games, scoring 20 points against the Chiefs and 31 in last week's win over Denver, but moving the ball should be more difficult this week. Philadelphia has struggled to contain the ball through the air, but the run defense has been stalwart as ever allowing only 306 yards total on the ground this season.

"I wouldn't expect Breece Hall to rip off 177 yards and a touchdown like he did last week against Denver's excuse for a defense, and life should be difficult for Zach Wilson against an Eagles team that likes to get after the QB.

"While Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense haven't seemed to hit their stride just yet, and the Jets defense won't make things easy, Philadelphia simply has too many playmakers at its disposal. And even if the pass game fails, New York has struggled against the run all season.

"It might not be pretty, but I like the Eagles by more than a touchdown."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Jets

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Jets

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Eagles

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -6.5

SU Consensus: Eagles

Score Prediction: Eagles 23, Jets 15

DK Line: Detroit -3.5

Both teams have a top wide receiver who's battling an injury, which adds difficulty to a call on this matchup.

In Week 4, against the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans exited in the first half and didn't return to action. Head coach Todd Bowles told reporters that he "tweaked" his hamstring.

Last week, Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff threw for 236 yards and three touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers without wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown. On a positive note, head coach Dan Campbell "feels pretty good" about the possibility that Brown plays on Sunday.

Most of our experts decided to take the hook with the Buccaneers, who are equipped to slow down Detroit's fourth-ranked scoring offense with their eighth-ranked scoring defense, but Davenport is bullish on the surging Lions.

"I'm pretty sure I was asked to comment on this game because every good Baker Mayfield performance ruptures a small blood vessel in my brain, and my esteemed colleagues are trying to eliminate some competition," he wrote. "I'd be personally hurt by it if I wouldn't do it myself."

"Laying the hook on the road with the Detroit Lions against a good team is a new one for this analyst, but the Lions are just the better team. Better quarterback. Comparable offensive weapons, especially if Amon-Ra St. Brown returns. And a defense that has gone from worst in the league in 2022 to top 10 in total yards going into Week 6.

"The Detroit Lions are a Super Bowl contender, which should spur all of us to get right with past misdeeds—because the End Times can't be that far off."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Buccaneers

Hanford: Buccaneers

Knox: Buccaneers

Moton: Buccaneers

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: Buccaneers +3.5

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 21, Buccaneers 20

DK Line: Los Angeles -6.5

In their first three games of the season, the Arizona Cardinals covered the spread and even won outright against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, but they've sputtered over the last two weeks, losing by 14-plus points to the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals.

This week, the Cardinals placed running back James Conner (knee) on short-term injured reserve, which is a significant blow to an offense that ranks sixth in rushing yards per game.

Most of our experts think Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will pick apart the Cardinals' 26th-ranked pass defense with wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to outpace Arizona by more than a touchdown.

Gagnon went against the grain with the thought that the Cardinals will hang around to cover against a better team.

"The Cards beat the Rams by double digits in Los Angeles last year, and L.A. is 0-2 straight up at home thus far in 2023," he wrote.

"The Rams are still the better team, but even without Kyler Murray, the Cardinals know them well. If they can hang with Washington and Dallas, they can keep this close as well."

Predictions

Davenport: Rams

Gagnon: Cardinals

Hanford: Rams

Knox: Rams

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Rams

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Rams -6.5

SU Consensus: Rams

Score Prediction: Rams 26, Cardinals 17

DK Line: Buffalo -14

The Buffalo Bills returned from London with a banged-up defense. They placed linebacker Matt Milano (fractured leg and torn ACL) and defensive tackle DaQuon Jones (torn pectoral) on season-ending injured reserve this week.

In a blast from the past, the Bills signed 35-year-old Josh Norman to help patch up a secondary without cornerback Tre'Davious White (torn Achilles). Keep in mind that Von Miller is still working his way back from a torn ACL.

Despite the Bills' injuries on defense and the uncertainty around tight end Dalton Kincaid, who's in concussion protocol, our experts expect Buffalo to rout the New York Giants.

Big Blue is black and blue from its losses and injuries. Quarterback Daniel Jones (neck) and tight end Darren Waller (groin) missed practice on Wednesday. Saquon Barkley hasn't played since Week 2 because of a high ankle sprain.

O'Donnell, along with most of our panel, went with the far better team to win big on the Sunday Night Football stage:

"I'm actually a bit more wary of this monster spread if Tyrod Taylor gets the start against his former team than if Daniel Jones starts for the Giants. It's less predictable and maybe offensive coordinator Mike Kafka has a play-calling sheet that makes sense. But it shouldn't really matter in the end. The Bills will be motivated to circle the wagons after their miserable journey across the pond last weekend. In their three wins this season, they've scored 38, 37 and 48 points but are averaging only 18 points in their two losses.

"The Giants, meanwhile, would have trouble scoring against air right now. Outside of their comeback win over Arizona, New York has scored only 31 points in the other four games, which is just about a touchdown and an extra point per game while surrendering about 30 points per game.

"The Bills are more than two touchdowns better than the Giants even with some key injuries defensively and even if they don't play their best. It's always tricky laying multiple touchdowns-plus in an NFL game, but the Giants haven't shown enough talent, let alone spirit, to warrant backing them even with these points."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Giants

ATS Consensus: Bills -14

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 35, Giants 17

DK Line: Dallas -2

The Dallas Cowboys endured an embarrassing 42-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday night, but they'll have an opportunity to redeem themselves on Monday in a matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers, who are coming off a bye week.

Our panel came to a consensus that sides with the public for this game, and O'Donnell isn't sold on the Cowboys as a good team with their low-quality wins:

"Who are the Dallas Cowboys? Their Week 1 and Week 2 wins over the Metlife Stadium New York teams and Patriots in Week 3, don't look so impressive given those teams are a combined 4-11 this season. And their losses to Arizona and San Francisco bring about a plethora of additional questions.

"The Chargers aren't necessarily 'better' on paper, but they at least know who they are. They'll score points, they'll give up points, the game will be played within one score almost the entire time, and they have a QB who can make some awesome things happen when needed. I don't know which Cowboys team is showing up, so I'll take the points with a home dog who's at least trustworthy to play close and should probably win this game outright."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Chargers

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Chargers

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: Chargers +2

SU Consensus: Chargers

Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Cowboys 24

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