Sonny Gray Free-Agency Landing Spots After Twins' Elimination in MLB Playoffs

Sonny Gray is going to be one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market this offseason coming off a performance that should land him in the top five in AL Cy Young voting.

The 33-year-old was on the mound for the Minnesota Twins in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series and Game 3 of the ALDS, and he should have no problem eclipsing the average annual value of the five-year, $50.7 million deal that he just completed this winter.

The question is just how high his asking price will climb in a market where he is, arguably, the third-best available starter behind Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, and how many years will contending teams be willing to go with a pitcher who turns 34 next month.

Now that the Twins have been eliminated from the playoffs, let's take a look at the most likely landing spots for Gray when free agency begins this offseason.

At 33 years old, Sonny Gray is unlikely to secure a long-term, nine-figure contract, but that doesn't mean he won't be one of the highest-paid free agents in terms of annual average value.

Right-hander Chris Bassitt was the same age last offseason when he signed a three-year, $63 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, and he was coming off a 2022 season where he finished 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 167 strikeouts in 181.2 innings.

In his second season with the Minnesota Twins and the final season of a five-year, $50.7 million contract this year, Gray logged a 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 183 strikeouts in 184 innings over 32 starts.

The depth of starting pitching talent on the market is also worth considering.

Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Kodai Senga were all a tier above Bassitt, while Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon also ended up signing for more total money on long-term deals.

This year, NL Cy Young front-runner Blake Snell and Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola are the only starting pitchers clearly ahead of Gray on the offseason pitching market, and that could mean more demand and more bargaining power.

A three-year, $75 million contract is a realistic ceiling for Gray this winter.

Honorable Mentions

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs have a terrific one-two punch with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly at the top of the rotation, but the rest of the starting staff is a question mark, with 2023 rookies Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson the leading in-house candidates to round out the staff. Slotting Gray in as the No. 3 starter would help take a lot of pressure off those young arms.

Atlanta Braves

With Kyle Wright set to miss the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and Charlie Morton a candidate to retire, the Braves could look to add an outside starter to a projected rotation that includes Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder and some combination of up-and-coming young arms AJ Smith-Shawver, Jared Shuster, Dylan Dodd and Allan Winans with Michael Soroka as a potential wild card.

San Diego Padres

With Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo all potentially departing this offseason, the Padres rotation is going to look different behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, but the front office is preparing to cut costs. According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, the plan is to cut the payroll to somewhere around $200 million.

Why the Remaining Teams Don't Make Sense

The following teams are not currently in the mix to sign Gray or any other top starting pitchers this offseason:

Non-Contenders: CWS, COL, DET, KC, LAA, OAK, PIT, WAS

Small-Market Limitations: CLE, MIL, TB

Rotation Is Not Top Priority: HOU, MIA, SEA, TEX, TOR

New York Yankees: Upgrading the starting rotation is an obvious area of need for the Yankees this offseason, but a reunion with Gray is unlikely to be something either side is interested in this winter. He spent part of 2017 and all of 2018 wearing pinstripes after coming over in a trade with Oakland and struggled to a 4.51 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 195.2 innings.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Logan Webb
2. RHP Alex Cobb ($10 million club option)
3. LHP Sean Manaea
4. RHP Anthony DeSclafani
5. LHP Kyle Harrison

The San Francisco Giants will be paying Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling a combined $55 million in 2024, assuming they exercise a $10 million club option on Cobb.

They could simply roll with that group and top prospect Kyle Harrison for next year's starting rotation while focusing their offseason spending on upgrading an offense that ranked 24th in the majors with 4.16 runs per game.

However, finding a legitimate No. 2 starter to slot behind Webb in the rotation could help make an average rotation a legitimate strength.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Hunter Greene
2. LHP Andrew Abbott
3. LHP Nick Lodolo
4. LHP Brandon Williamson
5. RHP Graham Ashcraft

No one in the above projected starting rotation for the Cincinnati Reds is older than 25 years old, and both Graham Ashcraft (toe surgery) and Nick Lodolo (tibia stress reaction) finished the 2023 season on the injured list, so there are a lot of question marks in this group.

Gray spent three successful seasons in Cincinnati before joining the Minnesota Twins, and he logged a 3.49 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 432 strikeouts in 366.2 innings while finishing seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2019.

Would he consider a return to a Reds team on the rise with an exciting young core of position players?

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Kyle Bradish
2. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
3. LHP John Means
4. RHP Dean Kremer
5. RHP Tyler Wells

The last time the Baltimore Orioles spent more than $20 million on a free agent was when they signed Alex Cobb to a four-year, $57 million deal prior to the 2018 season.

Finding a proven ace to anchor their starting rotation is far and away the biggest item on their offseason shopping list. Shaky starts from Kyle Bradish (4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER), Grayson Rodriguez (1.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER) and Dean Kremer (1.2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER) in the ALDS shined a further light on that need.

The biggest question is whether the front office is ready to loosen the purse strings. Gray would essentially serve as a more expensive version of Kyle Gibson, who signed a one-year, $10 million deal last offseason to serve as a veteran leader on a young staff.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. LHP Chris Sale
2. RHP Brayan Bello
3. RHP Nick Pivetta
4. RHP Kutter Crawford
5. RHP Tanner Houck

Brayan Bello (157.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 132 K), Nick Pivetta (142.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, 183 K) and Kutter Crawford (129.1 IP, 4.04 ERA, 135 K) all threw the ball fairly well during the 2023 season, and Bello has the stuff to take another step forward and emerge as a bona fide ace.

However, the health of Chris Sale, a step backward from Tanner Houck and a general lack of rotation depth makes adding a proven veteran starter a priority for the new-look Boston front office this winter.

It's a small sample size, but it's worth mentioning Gray has a 6.84 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 26.1 career innings at Fenway Park.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. LHP Justin Steele
2. RHP Jameson Taillon
3. LHP Drew Smyly
4. RHP Javier Assad
5. LHP Jordan Wicks

With Marcus Stroman expected to opt out of the final year of his contract and Kyle Hendricks potentially headed for free agency if his $16 million club option is declined, the Chicago Cubs could be in the market for starting pitching help.

Left-hander Justin Steele enjoyed a breakout season atop the rotation, while rookies Javier Assad (32 G, 10 GS, 3.05 ERA, 94 K, 109.1 IP) and Jordan Wicks (7 GS, 4.41 ERA, 24 K, 34.2 IP) both showed enough potential to believe they can compete for rotation spots next spring.

An established veteran like Gray on a short-term deal could help bridge the gap to top prospects Cade Horton and Ben Brown who are both poised to open the 2024 season in the upper levels of the minors and on leaguewide Top 100 prospect lists.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Zack Wheeler
2. LHP Ranger Suárez
3. RHP Taijuan Walker
4. LHP Matthew Strahm
5. LHP Cristopher Sánchez

The Philadelphia Phillies already have a ton of money on the books long-term, including a whopping $160 million committed to Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Taijuan Walker for the 2024 season.

That likely means Aaron Nola is headed elsewhere this offseason with a nine-figure deal on the horizon as one of the top starting pitchers on the market.

At the same time, the contention window is wide open for this Phillies team, so swapping out Nola for Gray, who is likely to sign a shorter deal for a lower average annual value, could help them avoid a fall-off from the starting staff.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Kodai Senga
2. LHP José Quintana
3. RHP Tylor Megill
4. LHP Joey Lucchesi
5. RHP José Butto

Whether they plan on ramping back up for contention in 2024 or decide to take a step backward to rebuild for the future, the above five-man staff is not going to be what the New York Mets rotation looks like on Opening Day.

Rookie Kodai Senga pitched like a legitimate staff ace during the second half of the season and a healthy José Quintana could be a useful middle-of-the-rotation starter, but ideally the other three guys on that list would be competing for the No. 5 starter job or serving as organizational depth.

Gray will need to be convinced the Mets are serious about winning in the short-term as he chases his first World Series ring here in the homestretch of his career.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Miles Mikolas
2. LHP Steven Matz
3. RHP Dakota Hudson
4. LHP Matthew Liberatore
5. LHP Zack Thompson

With Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty traded at the deadline and Adam Wainwright headed for retirement, the Cardinals have a lot of work to do rebuilding a starting rotation that ranked 26th in the majors with a 5.07 ERA.

"According to multiple sources, veteran starters Sonny Gray and Aaron Nola are free agents the Cardinals have identified as good fits and plan to approach to see if the feeling is mutual," Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote.

After a 91-loss season, convincing Gray the Cardinals will be ready to contend again in 2024 might be the biggest hurdle in this potential fit.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Walker Buehler
2. RHP Bobby Miller
3. RHP Ryan Pepiot
4. RHP Emmet Sheehan
5. LHP Ryan Yarbrough

Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías are both headed for free agency, while Dustin May (flexor tendon surgery) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) will each start the 2024 season on the injured list, leaving the Dodgers with a ton of questions that will need to be answered in the rotation.

Walker Buehler should be back healthy after missing the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, while rookies Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan all gained valuable experience this year.

Still, it's hard to see a Dodgers team focused on title contention going with such an inexperienced group, and even if Kershaw comes back on another one-year deal, a veteran like Gray could still be on the shopping list.

Current Projected 2024 Rotation

1. RHP Pablo López
2. RHP Joe Ryan
3. RHP Bailey Ober
4. RHP Chris Paddack
5. RHP Louie Varland

The Twins finished second in the majors with a 3.82 ERA from the starting rotation this season, which helped them win the AL Central title by nine games over the Cleveland Guardians.

The Minnesota front office is generally averse to signing players to long-term deals, but with several young players on the rise making the league-minimum or close to it, they can afford to fit a new deal for Gray on the books without stretching the payroll beyond their comfort level.

From Gray's side, he is coming off arguably the best season of his career, and he had a 2.67 ERA in 17 starts at Target Field, so staying put in a situation where he is comfortable and on a team that looks like a clear contender once again in 2024 should be appealing.

How far beyond that three-year, $63 million mark that Chris Bassitt set last year will the Twins be willing to go? It might not matter if that's where Gray prefers to be.