NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 7 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 6 Results

Taken as a group, Week 6 might have provided the most surprising results of the 2023 NFL season thus far.

Both the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten. In San Francisco's case, it lost to a Cleveland Browns team starting a practice-squad quarterback in P.J. Walker.

The Texans pulled to .500 with a big win over the New Orleans Saints, while the Buffalo Bills had a surprisingly difficult time putting away the New York Giants on Sunday night.

It's been a season of unpredictability thus far, but below, we'll dive into three games we like for Week 7 based on the early odds.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The Browns may or may not have Deshaun Watson back at quarterback against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7.

"Watson (bruised rotator cuff) is continuing his rehab which includes throwing, but is still day to day heading into Sunday's game vs. the Colts," Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com posted on X, formerly known as Twitter.

However, picking Cleveland to win by a field goal is more about the team's defense. Led by Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and new coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Browns are on a historic pace defensively.

Cleveland has allowed the fewest yards through five games (1,002) since the Baltimore Colts allowed 836 in 1971.

The Browns just held the 49ers to 215 yards and 17 points. It's hard to envision a Gardner Minshew II-led offense faring much better, especially with wideout Alec Pierce nursing a shoulder injury.

With or without Watson, the Browns should find just enough against Indy's 23rd-ranked scoring offense to win a close one here. Don't be surprised if the line moves further toward Cleveland in the coming days.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their bye and should have a strong fan presence when they face the Los Angeles Rams on the road this week.

However, this isn't a great matchup for the Steelers, who have struggled to contain opposing passers. Pittsburgh has fared well in divisional games and against the up-and-down Las Vegas Raiders, but it has been blown out by the 49ers and the Texans.

Pittsburgh's defensive strength has been its pass rush and ability to generate turnovers. Both should come into play against the Rams. However, the Steelers have allowed 6.2 yards per pass attempt, 4.8 yards per rush, 389.4 yards per game and 22 points per contest.

L.A. could be without both running back Kyren Williams (ankle) and backup Ronnie Rivers (PCL sprain), which would limit its rushing attack. The plan, though, should be to attack Pittsburgh's secondary with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and the passing game.

The Rams have been surprisingly competitive and balanced this season, averaging 23 points per game while allowing 19.5. Expect L.A. to hold serve at home and win by more than a field goal.

The 49ers aren't likely to see a defense as good as Cleveland's again this season, and they certainly won't see one on Sunday. The Minnesota Vikings are allowing 331 yards and 22.5 points per game this season.

Injuries to Christian McCaffrey (oblique) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder) could be problematic for San Francisco. However, the 49ers still have mismatch pass-catchers in Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. With a full week for Kyle Shanahan to adjust, both Brock Purdy and the offense as a whole should rebound.

San Francisco's defense, meanwhile, remains the top-ranked scoring defense in the league. The Browns won with 19 points, and that's the second-highest total the 49ers have allowed this season (23 to the Rams in Week 2).

While the Vikings have some playmakers in Kirk Cousins, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, they won't have Justin Jefferson, who is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. Minnesota is also struggling to run the ball, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry as a team.

Minnesota mustered just 19 points against a very inconsistent Chicago Bears defense on Sunday and might not even reach that against San Francisco. Expect this to be a bounce-back game for the 49ers and a touchdown margin at the least.

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