B/R MLB Staff Predictions for Diamondbacks vs. Rangers in 2023 World Series
The 2023 World Series begins tonight, and Bleacher Report's Major League Baseball staff has takes and predictions at the ready.
The Fall Classic will have the Arizona Diamondbacks on one side and the Texas Rangers on the other. Both teams got there despite starting out as mere wild cards, so there can be no doubt they have the proverbial dog in them.
Kerry Miller, Joel Reuter, Brandon Scott and myself, Zach Rymer, sat down to answer eight questions in ascending order of importance:
- Which player will win the "Steal a Base, Steal a Taco" challenge?
- Who is the best player going in?
- Which player will disappoint?
- Which player will steal the show?
- What will be the biggest controversy?
- What's your boldest prediction?
- Which player will win World Series MVP?
- Which team will win the series?
Without further delay, let's get to it.
Which Player Will Win Everyone a Free Taco?
Kerry Miller: Corbin Carroll
First things first, not everyone wins a free taco. Only "Taco Bell Reward Members" win a free taco. And I don't know why anyone needs to be a reward member to spend $4.20 on the occasional fourth meal.
But I digress and will go with the glaringly obvious choice of Carroll. The Diamondbacks rookie had more than twice as many regular-season stolen bases as anyone else playing in this series, and he just stole a pair of bags in the Game 7 win over Philadelphia.
Joel Reuter: Corbin Carroll
The first player to step into the batter's box in Game 1 will almost certainly be the NL Rookie of the Year front-runner, who is hitting .295 this postseason and racked up 54 steals in 59 attempts during the regular season.
What better way to set the tone for the series than with a leadoff single and an immediate steal of second base?
Brandon Scott: Corbin Carroll
Only three players had more stolen bases than Carroll's 54, and he was only caught stealing five times. He had two stolen bases in the NLCS with four this postseason, which is tied for second.
Zach Rymer: Christian Walker
There are the logical answers to this question, such as Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Marcus Semien and Leody Taveras. And then there are the fun answers to this question, such as Walker.
Even if he isn't as hefty of a lad as our taco hero from last year's World Series, he's still primarily known as a slugger. But he's also quietly 15-for-15 stealing bases between the regular season and the postseason, so my stance is that he already owes me a taco.
Who Is the Best Player Going In?
KM: Adolis García
It's got to be García, who racked up five home runs and 13 RBI in the final four games of the ALCS.
He's already just one RBI behind David Freese—my deepest apologies to Rangers fans for bringing up that name—for the all-time single-postseason record of 21, and I don't think Texas' three days off before Game 1 will do much of anything to extinguish this inferno.
JR: Corey Seager
Despite injuries limiting him to 119 games during the regular season, Seager tied for sixth in the majors with 75 extra-base hits while batting .327/.390/.623 in a 6.9-WAR season.
He has been raking all year and hasn't missed a beat in October, hitting .333/.483/.644 in the postseason and going 3-for-5 with a double and a home run in Game 7 of the ALCS.
BS: Corey Seager
Seager is the best player in this Fall Classic, but it's hard to ignore what Adolis García is doing at the plate. The ALCS MVP was absolutely dominant against the Astros.
But only Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna Jr. were better at creating runs this year than Seager, who ranked third in wRC+.
ZR: Corey Seager
The Rangers' defeat of the Astros in the ALCS is that much more incredible given how little they got from their best player. Before he finally went off in Game 7, Seager had been 5-for-26 through the first six games.
That Game 7 performance was nothing if not a reminder of how freakin' good Seager is. Joel touched on some of his numbers, but the one I love is that he led the AL with 42 doubles even though he missed 43 games. And a Gold Glove finalist, too? Be still my beating heart...
Which Player Will Disappoint?
KM: Ketel Marte
Give me Marte here, only because it will be disappointing if and when he goes hitless in a postseason game for the first time in his career.
His bounce-back season was such a huge, underappreciated-at-a-national-level part of Arizona's breakthrough year, and he has continued to produce at a high level over the past few weeks. But even though he went 6-for-14 with three home runs against the Rangers during the regular season, I think his incredible run finally hits a pothole.
JR: Zac Gallen
Gallen took the loss in Game 1 (5.0 IP, 8 H, 5 ER) and Game 5 (6.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER) of the NLCS, marking the first time since early July that he allowed more than three earned runs in consecutive starts.
The 28-year-old tossed a career-high 210 innings during the regular season, and he has added another 22.1 frames to that total this postseason. It's possible he might just be running out of gas.
BS: Evan Carter
There is a lot of buzz surrounding Carter, and rightfully so. His .306/.413/.645 slash line and five home runs in just 23 regular-season games were impressive, and he's had some big moments in the postseason.
However, the 21-year-old rookie sensation will be on his biggest stage since making his September debut.
ZR: Adolis García
"He's a bad man, isn't he?" was what Corey Seager had to say about García after his MVP-winning performance in the ALCS. But if ever there was a hard act to follow, it's one that involves a record-setting number of RBI for a playoff series.
Besides, García can run cold just as easily as he runs hot. He had more 0-fers than any other Ranger in the regular season, and he's the only player who's worn the Golden Sombrero twice in these playoffs.
Which Player Will Steal the Show?
KM: Nathan Eovaldi
"Big Game Nate" has put on a pitching clinic thus far with four quality starts this postseason, and he'll give the Rangers at least one, possibly two, more if the series lasts long enough for him to make a second start.
It probably won't be enough for him to be named World Series MVP because pitchers don't receive that honor often. But when he takes the mound, he'll steal the show.
JR: Max Scherzer
It still feels like Scherzer has a part to play in this postseason story beyond his abridged outings in Game 3 (4.0 IP, 5 H, 5 ER) and Game 7 (2.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER) of the ALCS.
The last time he took the mound in the World Series, he threw five innings of two-run ball against the Houston Astros in Game 7 to help the Washington Nationals secure a title in 2019.
BS: Adolis García
García hit five home runs in the ALCS and homered in four straight games, including two blasts in the decisive Game 7 against the Astros. No one is hotter at the plate right now.
ZR: Marcus Semien
I don't mean to portray a two-time All-Star and $175 million man as obscure, but I don't think there's a more underrated player in baseball today. Semien is second to Mookie Betts in WAR since 2019 and fresh off leading the AL in hits and runs in the regular season.
You'd never know any of this from how he's hitting just .192 in the playoffs, but I doubt it's a case of him not being able to hack October. Slow starts are kind of a thing with Semien, yet they never last forever. This one shouldn't either.
What Will Be the Biggest Controversy?
KM: Quick Hooks
I think we are absolutely headed for at least one quick-hook controversy. Merrill Kelly wasn't happy about being pulled after five innings in Game 6 of the NLCS, and goodness knows Max Scherzer has been known to stare daggers and breathe fire at managers who try to pull him before he's ready to leave.
And while these bullpens have been money in the postseason, they were both far from reliable during the regular season. If those relief woes happen to resurface after an early hook, oh buddy, the takes will be hot.
JR: Torey Lovullo's Managing
The X-factor for the D-backs might be how they navigate a potentially short outing from rookie Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3 and another all-hands-on-deck bullpen approach in Game 4.
Lovullo did a fantastic job traversing those two games in the NLCS, but the volatility of that approach opens him up for criticism if things don't go as well in the World Series.
BS: Bruce Bochy's Lineups
Anytime Bruce Bochy plays veterans Robbie Grossman or Travis Jankowski over rookie Evan Carter, eyes will roll in North Texas.
ZR: The Pitch Timer
The first season with the pitch timer went about as well as anyone could have hoped. It did what it was supposed to do, and the players got used to it as the year went along. And so it goes in October, wherein there have been only seven pitcher and batter violations.
Still, I live in fear of that moment. That moment when a big spot in a game is determined not by a big pitch or a big hit, but by someone taking just a little too long on the mound or in the box. I don't want it to happen. But if it does...oh boy, there will be hell to pay.
What's Your Bold Prediction?
KM: The Ratings Will Surprise
The ratings will surprise people in a good way. I'm not saying it'll be the most-watched World Series of the past decade or anything, but I don't think it's going to be some sort of unwatchable disaster, either.
The stockpile of rookie sensations between these teams will drive a fair amount of interest, even if Corbin Carroll vs. Josh Jung doesn't move the needle like Bryce Harper vs. Yordan Alvarez would have.
JR: Evan Longoria Will Turn Back the Clock
Longoria was a 22-year-old rookie in 2008 when he last appeared in the World Series. Now 38, he ranks sixth among active position players with 58.6 WAR.
However, he is still chasing his first ring. He went just 2-for-19 with nine strikeouts in the NLCS and is hitting .135 overall this postseason, but here's predicting he makes an impact in the World Series.
BS: The Diamondbacks Score Late, Often
The Diamondbacks offense opens up late in games as they get to the Rangers bullpen, a noted weakness of the AL champs. Arizona scores more runs against the Texas bullpen than its starters.
ZR: Somebody Will Pitch a Complete Game
I know, I know. This is a modern postseason, and that means short leashes on starting pitchers at all times. A complete game in the World Series? There hasn't been such a thing in nearly a decade.
But whatever. I'm going for it. And this series does have some quality candidates for the job, up to and including Nathan Eovaldi, who had two complete games this season, and Zac Gallen, who had one. Don't let me down, guys.
Which Player Will Be World Series MVP?
KM: Evan Carter
A rookie (Jeremy Peña) was named World Series MVP last year, and a rookie shall be named World Series MVP again this year. Plenty to choose from, but give me Carter.
He has at least one hit in all but one game this postseason and a .987 OPS thus far. He's a threat to steal bases (two in the past two games), and he can make highlight reels with his glove in left field.
JR: Corey Seager
In 2020, Seager hit .328/.425/.746 with eight home runs and 20 RBI in 18 games during the playoffs while winning NLCS and World Series MVP honors as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Outfielder Adolis García was swinging the hot bat in the ALCS, but Seager has carried the offense at times this year and can easily catch fire again in the Fall Classic.
BS: Adolis García
García set an MLB postseason record with 15 RBI in the ALCS, and he's the first player with at least one RBI in six straight games in a single series. It's his time.
ZR: Paul Sewald
Relievers basically don't win the World Series MVP. Larry Sherry, Rollie Fingers, John Wetteland and Mariano Rivera are the only guys to ever do it, so relievers are batting .060 in the 67-year history of the award.
But if anyone can do it, why not Sewald? He's been untouchable in the playoffs, logging eight scoreless outings with 11 strikeouts against three hits and one walk. And rest assured, he should see plenty of action with the game on the line in the World Series.
Who's Going to Win?
KM: Rangers in 6
Let's make my throngs of fans in Phoenix happy with yet another pick against the Diamondbacks. I had them getting swept by Milwaukee, getting swept by Los Angeles and losing in five games against Philadelphia.
And if it's hopelessly broke, don't fix it. Texas wins in six games for the first World Series title in franchise history.
JR: Rangers in 6
The Rangers offense is averaging 5.92 runs per game with an .825 OPS this postseason, and as long as the bullpen doesn't completely implode, they have two standout starters in Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery and the bats to slug their way to a title. Rangers in six.
BS: Rangers in 6
It took seven games in the championship series for both teams to get here, so it only seems fitting this one would go seven games. It won't, though. Rangers in six.
ZR: Diamondbacks in 7
My immediate instinct is to pick the Rangers. That offense is stacked from top to bottom and that 1-2 punch of Montgomery and Eovaldi has yet to let them down.
Yet the D-backs just beat a team with similar credentials, and beating this one would, arguably, be even less of an upset. Compared to their matchup against the Phillies in the NLCS, the Snakes will have even bigger advantages over Texas with their three-strong starting rotation and especially with their dominant late-inning relief corps.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.