Resetting Each Conference Race Before Stretch Run of 2023 CFB Season
Although the push toward the College Football Playoff will command most headlines in the final weeks of the 2023 regular season, conference races have a major impact on that conversation.
Through nine iterations of the championship tournament, only seven of the 36 CFP qualifiers didn't win a league title.
Not everything is about the CFP, though. Save for Cincinnati crashing the party in 2020, a conference championship is basically the greatest accomplishment possible for Group of Five programs. That should be celebrated even beyond the potential for a New Year's Six bowl bid.
Five weeks remain in the 2023 regular season. Before we embrace the chaos to come, though, let's take a step back to evaluate the current standings and future outlook for all 10 conferences.
Group of Five Outlooks
AAC: Tulane Chasing a Repeat Crown
What a realignment-filled race. Tulane is 3-0 in conference play, along with soon-to-be ACC member SMU and AAC newcomer UTSA. One massive note is SMU plays neither of them in the regular season, while UTSA heads to Tulane on Nov. 25. Keep an eye on Memphis, which is 2-1 in conference play and hosts SMU on Nov. 18.
Conference USA: Yeah, Liberty Has Clinched a Spot
Believe it or not, we have a championship game qualifier. Liberty locked up a place with its sixth Conference USA win of the season. Now, the focus shifts to whether New Mexico State (4-1 in C-USA) can hold off Western Kentucky (2-2) with the head-to-head clash looming on Nov. 11. Liberty will know its opponent if NMSU beats Middle Tennessee and WKU.
MAC: Toledo and Who?
Not only is Toledo already 4-0 in league play, but the Rockets also hold the tiebreaker over Northern Illinois—the lone 3-1 team in the West division. It would take a major collapse for Toledo to not reach the MAC title game. In the East, two critical weeks lie ahead. Buffalo, Miami and Ohio are each 3-1, and the Bobcats are set to play them in consecutive games. We may know plenty about the East after the first Saturday of November.
Mountain West: Obvious Tier, but It's Not Clear
Week 9 is a highly impactful weekend in the league. Reigning champion Fresno State (2-1 in MWC) takes on UNLV (3-0), and Wyoming heads to Boise State in a battle of 2-1 teams. They're all chasing Air Force (4-0) in the Mountain West's first-ever division-less race for a title game. Six games remain between those five teams. It seems unlikely anyone else will rejoin the conversation.
Sun Belt: One Glorious Mess
James Madison can't compete for a conference title because of FBS transition rules, which is a major disappointment. However, it makes for a compelling race. Everyone is alive in the East division, although Georgia Southern just picked up a huge victory over Georgia State. Five programs in the West enter Week 9 with a 2-1 or 1-2 conference record, too.
Florida State Taking Control in ACC
The Big Story
Clemson's setback at Duke and overtime loss to Florida State announced a likely changing of the guard in the ACC. The Seminoles enter the final weekend of October as the league's lone remaining unbeaten team and are very much a contender for the College Football Playoff.
More to Know
Louisville and North Carolina hold 3-1 conference records, while Duke is 2-1. And Miami (1-2) shouldn't be ruled out quite yet. The Week 9 clash between Duke and Louisville is an important one, along with the Blue Devils at UNC on Nov. 11, and Louisville at Miami on Nov. 18. Virginia Tech (3-1) had struggled in nonconference play but avoids each of those schools except Louisville, so the Hokies are a fascinating wild card.
Better Luck Next Year
Even if you didn't believe Clemson would compete for a CFP trip this season, it's stunning the Tigers have already lost three ACC games. For only the second time since the program's ascent began in 2015, the ACC will have a non-Clemson champion.
Same Old Story in the Big Ten, Again
The Big Story
Thanks to Ohio State's win over Penn State, the Big Ten seems headed for another season-ending showdown in the historic rivalry. Michigan is, arguably, the best team in the nation and hosts The Game in 2023, but the Buckeyes are aiming to dethrone the Wolverines.
More to Know
Penn State needs a win over Michigan on Nov. 11 and some help to rejoin the East division chase, but that's plausible—even if unlikely. In the West, however, it's an absolute mess as usual. If Wisconsin is unable to upset Ohio State in Week 9, every West program will have at least two conference losses. So, that means Iowa, Minnesota and even Nebraska may be alive entering the final month.
Better Luck Next Year
Among the teams near the bottom of the standings, the most disappointing is Illinois. Last season, the Fighting Illini hit eight victories for the first time in 15 years. This season, they're on the brink of missing a bowl after four losses in five Big Ten matchups so far.
Oklahoma Eyeing Storybook Big 12 Sendoff
The Big Story
After a disappointing 2022, Oklahoma has rebounded and stands as the only undefeated team in the league. It's too early to crown the Sooners, but they're in a promising spot to reach the conference title game in their farewell Big 12 campaign before joining the SEC.
More to Know
Texas is close behind at 3-1 in Big 12 action, although a recent injury to quarterback Quinn Ewers is now a concern. The Longhorns host Kansas State (3-1) for a pivotal game on Nov. 4, the same day Oklahoma State (3-1) hosts OU. That weekend will have a large impact on who presumably plays the Sooners for the title. Iowa State is also 3-1 in conference but unlikely to navigate a tough schedule down the stretch.
Better Luck Next Year
The season has doubled as a rude welcome for Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston, the three AAC transplants. Yes, an early injury to UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee didn't help, and each program has been competitive. But the teams are a combined 1-11 in Big 12 play, and Houston needed its Hail Mary miracle as time expired for that lone victory.
Washington Leads Crowded Pac-12
The Big Story
Washington is 4-0, but very little is decided in the Pac-12. The congested conference has 4-1 USC, with Oregon, Oregon State and Utah each holding a 3-1 mark. Only a perfect bit of chaos can reignite hopes for Arizona or UCLA (2-2 apiece), but they're on the periphery, too.
More to Know
That bottleneck means we have key matchups every weekend. Oregon heads to Utah in Week 9. Washington goes to USC on Nov. 4, followed by USC at Oregon and Washington at Utah on Nov. 11. The Huskies play at Oregon State on Nov. 18, and the Ducks host OSU on Nov. 24. There's no time to catch your breath in the Pac-12.
Better Luck Next Year
Well, uh, the conference itself is mostly disappearing. Perhaps only temporarily as Oregon State and Washington State reshape their connected futures, but I digress. On the field, this is a proper spot to mention Colorado. Deion Sanders is certain to add plenty of talent once again as the school rejoins the Big 12, but the Buffs (1-3) are no longer a conference title hopeful this season.
Familiar Foes in the SEC
The Big Story
Georgia is 4-0 in the East, Alabama is 5-0 in the West. The sun rises and sets, the tides come and go. This should be the 10th straight season with at least one of them in the SEC Championship Game, and it could be the third clash between the two teams in that time.
More to Know
LSU (4-1) can derail Alabama's hopes for a second straight year when they meet Nov. 4. But if the Crimson Tide win, head-to-head victories over LSU and Ole Miss (3-1) should be decisive. UGA, meanwhile, could seal its place in the SEC title game with triumphs over Florida (3-1) and Missouri (3-1). If either team pulls off an upset, a perfect finish to the season would be required to keep Georgia out—short of a second UGA loss, of course.
Better Luck Next Year
We could discuss Auburn (0-4) searching for its first SEC victory of Hugh Freeze's tenure. We could dive into Arkansas (0-5) and its frustrating year. But there's a $76.8 million hot-seat question lingering over Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. If the Aggies (2-2) lose at Ole Miss and LSU to finish no better than 7-5 overall or 4-4 in SEC play, will the school feel finding that buyout money is the best option?