Ranking Best Values For MLB's Upcoming Free-Agent Starting Pitching Class

What an amazing time to be a free-agent starting pitcher. They are always in high demand as arguably the most important aspect of a team.

This season, in particular, we learned a lesson about the value of starting pitching. Just look at the Texas Rangers, which won the World Series despite a questionable bullpen. They leaned on their prolific offense for much of the way, and their depth of starters masked any deficiencies they had on the back end.

Corey Seager won his second World Series MVP, but the Rangers are champions because they doubled down on pitching this year. They traded for Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery ahead of the deadline. Jon Gray, who signed a four-year deal ahead of the 2022 season, pitched key innings in relief.

Martín Pérez, an All-Star the previous season, was a bit of an afterthought, but he was an important depth piece in 2023.

All of this is to say that teams should be champing at the bit to throw money at the top free-agent starters this offseason.

Here, we rank the best values in tiers, with some players separated out because of their own unique circumstances. All variables were considered when creating the tiers, including age, production, and projected contract value.

Blake Snell

Snell was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for much of the season. It started rocky, with him holding a 5.40 ERA and 1-6 record over his first nine starts through late May.

Then Snell flipped a switch, going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts. The San Diego Padres could stand to bring him back, but they already have an expensive roster they might have trouble paying.

That makes it reasonable to believe Snell's going elsewhere in free agency. The Los Angeles Dodgers saw him up close the past two seasons and should have him at the top of their free-agent wish list since they sorely need starting pitching.

All of the other big market clubs—the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs—should also be interested.

Snell's projected to receive a deal in the range of five years, $120 million. It's a good price for a top-of-the-rotation lefty coming off his best season since winning the AL Cy Young in 2018.

He turns 31 in December and should still have plenty of prime years left.

Sonny Gray

Gray enters his age-34 season coming off his best campaign since his early days with the Oakland Athletics. His 2.79 ERA was the lowest since his first All-Star nod in 2015. His 2.83 FIP and 0.4 home runs per nine innings led the majors.

The Athletic's Jim Bowden predicts Gray gets $64 million over three years, averaging about $21.33 million per year. If a team can get him for that amount, it's a sweet deal. But Gray should be aiming higher.

In addition to his MLB-best FIP, home runs per nine innings and impressively low ERA, Gray tied for the third-highest fWAR among starting pitchers. He is the kind of starter that could really change a team's outlook and put them over the top.

Aaron Nola

Nola is up for a big payday, yet his 2023 season brings concern that he could be trending in the wrong direction.

His ERA was up by more than a run from the previous year, and his career-best in FIP from 2022 reverted back to career-worst numbers this season.

But even a seemingly regressive Nola was the 15th most valuable pitcher, according to fWAR. It is a disappointing dip from 2022 when he led all pitchers in fWAR, though.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projected five years and $110 million for Nola, who turns 31 in June. That seems fair for a player of Nola's caliber. In terms of annual value, it's only $5 million less per year than Carlos Rodón's deal with the Yankees last year.

Interestingly enough, Nola was slightly ahead of Rodón as the top two fWAR starters in baseball at the time of Rodón's free agency. But again, that production dipped.

Also keep in mind, Nola reportedly sought an extension with the Phillies in the eight-year, $200 million range. It will be interesting to find out if a team sees it the same way he does.

The five years, $125 million projected by The Athletic's Jim Bowden seems more likely.

Eduardo Rodríguez

Rodríguez opted out of the remaining four years and $49 million on his contract with the Detroit Tigers. It makes sense, considering his market value is higher than the contract, and the team has not progressed the way it hoped when signing Rodríguez two years ago.

A left-hander of his caliber should be in high demand. Rodríguez posted the 14th-lowest ERA in the majors this season and was top-20 in FIP.

His market value is about $20.4 million annually, according to Spotrac. Rodríguez will be 31 next season, so he should be able to get close to $100 million over five years.

Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery was not great in the World Series. But the Texas Rangers probably don't get there without his masterful performance in Game 1 of the ALCS, and he pitched well enough for them to win Game 5.

Montgomery had a breakout season in 2023, splitting time between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. His 2.79 ERA was the lowest of his career, and his 3.56 FIP was his second-best only to the previous season.

It is time for Montgomery to get paid going into his age 30 season. He ranked 13th in fWAR among qualified pitchers.

Montgomery's estimated value is around $18.4 million per year, according to Spotrac, but that seems like an undershot.

It will be interesting to see if the Rangers, who have not been shy about opening the checkbook, throw down for one of their better postseason performers.

Lucas Giolito

This one is really interesting just thinking about how badly teams will want to spend on starting pitching. Giolito, an All-Star in 2019, is in a lower tier of starting pitchers available in free agency. But he's also a productive, reliable starter who could change the outlook of a serious ballclub.

Since 2019, only five pitchers have thrown more innings than Giolito, who turns 30 in July. Only 11 pitchers have a higher fWAR in that span. His ERA and FIP over that time is just outside the top 15.

While Giolito may not be elite, he's been durable and better than most.

This issue is that he was atrocious in his 12 starts after being dealt from the Chicago White Sox ahead of the trade deadline. His 3.79 ERA in 21 starts for the White Sox ballooned to 6.89 in seven starts for the Los Angeles Angels before they placed him on waivers, and he proceeded to be even worse with the Cleveland Guardians.

How much money, if any, did Giolito cost himself at the end of the season? He might be best with a two-year prove it deal that includes an opt-out, as projected here.

Marcus Stroman

Stroman opted out of his $21 million salary with the Chicago Cubs to seek a new deal in free agency. He made the NL All-Star team and finished with a 3.95 ERA in 27 appearances, including 25 starts.

Injuries limited him to 136.2 innings, but he was good when healthy. Stroman, who turns 33 in May, held a 2.28 ERA over 98.2 innings in his first 16 starts before injuries derailed him a bit.

The $21 million salary Stroman opted to pass on seems to be right around his worth, perhaps even a bit more. He still upgrades any rotation and provides important starting pitching depth for a competitive team.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yamamoto could be the most fascinating free agent on the market outside of Shohei Ohtani.

He is one of the top Japanese pitchers available and was brilliant with 14 strikeouts Saturday in what could be his final game in Japan. Yamamoto threw a complete game and the 14 strikeouts set a Japan Series record.

The belief among scouts is that the 25-year-old Yamamoto could immediately jump into a big-league rotation as its No. 1 or 2 starter after winning MVP and Japan's top pitching award in each of the past two seasons.

If that's the case, he should have no problem securing a long-term deal worth upward of $200 million, especially at that age. He's another one who all the heavy hitters will have on their wish list.

Shōta Imanaga

Imanaga is one of the more intriguing Japanese players who is available this free-agent cycle. According to Jon Morosi of MLB.com, Imanaga is viewed as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter on a postseason team.

Morosi also named the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Padres as potential landing spots for Imanaga, who turned 30 in September.

You might recognize him from starting against Team USA in the World Baseball Classic gold-medal game, when he allowed one earned run over two innings in a victory.

He's been one of the top starters in Japan for several years, but it is not entirely clear what his dollar amount would be.

If he's projected to be a middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starter, then Taijuan Walker's four-year, $72 million deal with the Phillies last season could be instructive.

For the first time in a while, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a pitching problem that needs to be addressed. It should be their top offseason priority, especially given how the season ended.

Kershaw made $20 million this past season. For that price, the future Hall of Famer posted a 2.46 ERA with a 13-5 record.

An annual value staying in the $20 million range for Kershaw is absolutely worth it.

There is one problem, though. He's not expected to recover from offseason shoulder surgery until next summer at the earliest, which diminishes his value greatly but is also worth paying to have down the stretch.

Kershaw pitched well this season, and re-signing him to another discounted, short-term deal would help alleviate some of the Dodgers' pitching concerns.

The value with Kershaw, who will be 36 next season, is the short-term deal. When healthy—always a concern at this age—he is going to be effective without compromising the future.

It would be unfair to both Ohtani and the other players to group him with anyone else. We have obviously never seen anyone like him, either under contract or as a free agent.

For a while, it's been speculated Ohtani's free agent deal could reach half a billion dollars, which does not seem out of the question.

He is, at once, a better hitter than most batters he faces, and vice versa against the pitchers he faces. What do you do with that?

Ohtani won't pitch in 2024 because of his offseason right elbow surgery, so whichever team lands him can just plug him in at DH until he's ready to take the mound.

Ohtani doesn't turn 30 until July. Even if his deal falls short of $500 million over 10 years, it should come close—and by far surpass our previous comprehension in the process.