NFL Odds Week 10: Top Longshots to Bet Against the Spread

While we didn't see a ton of upsets in Week 9, we did see one of the most surprising stories of the 2023 NFL season thus far.

Early into their contest against the Atlanta Falcons, the underdog Minnesota Vikings called upon quarterback Joshua Dobbs. The 28-year-old was traded to Minnesota mid-week, stepped in for Jaren Hall (concussion) and proceeded to lead the Vikings to a 31-28 victory.

Dobbs had three touchdowns (one rushing) a feat he achieved just a week earlier, only, for the Arizona Cardinals.

Surprising upsets have kind of been a thing this season, and we're sure to see a few more in Week 10. Let's examine a few dogs we like based on the early lines.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The San Francisco 49ers are riding a three-game losing streak, but they've had the bye week in which to prepare. During the week, San Francisco acquired pass-rusher Chase Young from the Washington Commanders, and it welcomed Deebo Samuel (shoulder) back to practice this past Monday.

The addition of Young and the return of Samuel should help a 49ers team that has looked out of sorts on both sides of the ball.

However, the Jacksonville Jaguars stand a very good chance of keeping things close or pulling the outright upset at home this weekend. The presence of quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a big reason why.

Lawrence continues to border on elite status, and he has the arm and the legs to gain ground against San Francisco. The 49ers were carved up by Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow in their last two games, and they allowed P.J. Walker to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback before that.

Jacksonville can exploit a 49ers defense ranked 18th in yards per carry allowed by leaning on Travis Etienne Jr. If Lawrence can make a few big plays and avoid turnovers, the Jags should cover.

The Tennessee Titans are underdogs largely because they're on the road and starting a rookie quarterback in Will Levis. The 2-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not dramatically better than the 3-5 Titans.

This is essentially a "pick 'em" game, and Levis provides a good reason to believe in Tennessee. He's gone 1-1 in his two starts but has done a tremendous job of sparking the passing game along the way.

Levis has thrown for 500 yards with four touchdowns and one interception.

The strength of the Buccaneers defense is their run defense (10th in yards per carry allowed). Expect the Titans to lean on Levis, DeAndre Hopkins and the passing game—a winning strategy against Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers just surrendered a rookie-record 470 passing yards and five touchdowns to C.J. Stroud. While Levis can't be expected to have that prolific of a day, he can be expected to out-duel Baker Mayfield.

With extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night, Tennessee is in a great position to provide the upset.

Dobbs is in position to start again for Minnesota because longtime starter Kirk Cousins is out for the year with a torn ACL. While there's no guarantee that Dobbs can create magic for a second week in a row, he at least gives the Vikings a reasonable chance at home this week.

With the Cardinals and Vikings this season, Dobbs has been a respectable starter (83.3 QB rating), and Minnesota has a solid foundation.

The Vikings aren't likely to have Justin Jefferson back this week, but they do have playmakers like T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, plus a solid-and-improving unit under defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are beginning to find a groove too. They're looking like the NFC South favorites, and they just won back-to-back games for only the second time this season.

The Saints are far from a flawless team, though, and they didn't have an easy time putting away Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears last week. Dobbs and the Vikings represent a bigger challenge, and this one could be a very narrow Saints victory, if New Orleans wins at all.

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