College Football Picks: Week 11 Predictions for Every Game
When we look back at the 2023 college football season, Week 11 might be remembered as the moment it all changed.
To this point, the rankings have remained relatively static. While the AP poll and College Football Playoff selection committee have slight differences, the quintet of Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and Washington are the consensus top teams in the country.
Among those five power-conference unbeatens, however, three take on a ranked opponent and a fourth hosts a rival on Saturday.
Still, no matter what happens, it's a busy weekend!
Alabama, Georgia, Louisville and New Mexico State have a chance to clinch a place in their respective conference championship games. Fifteen teams are aiming for a sixth win to secure bowl eligibility—and Saturday includes three matchups with a pair of 5-4 programs.
The rankings reflect the AP Top 25.
AP Nos. 25-21
Old Dominion (4-5) at No. 25 Liberty (9-0), 1 p.m. ET
Save for a 19-point loss to Virginia Tech in the opener, every Old Dominion game has been decided by one possession? Wake Forest and James Madison, yes! Texas A&M-Commerce and Southern Miss, uh-huh! So, that's the long version of saying ODU can be a nuisance for Liberty, even as the undefeated Flames stay perfect.
Prediction: Liberty 31, Old Dominion 24
Duke (6-3) at No. 24 North Carolina (7-2), 8 p.m. ET
Winner stays alive in the ACC race. The trouble for Duke is the offense has really faltered since Riley Leonard's ankle injury, and he's sidelined again with a toe issue. Duke's defense is stingy, but North Carolina should be able to outlast the Blue Devils.
Prediction: North Carolina 27, Duke 16
No. 23 Arizona (6-3) at Colorado (4-5), 2 p.m. ET
Freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has played a key part of Arizona's midseason ascent, but I don't want to overlook the defense. In consecutive wins against then-ranked Washington State, Oregon State and UCLA teams, the Wildcats have ceded just 13.3 points per game. If that performance continues, an upset for Colorado is improbable.
Prediction: Arizona 29, Colorado 17
No. 22 Notre Dame (7-3), Idle
Connecticut (1-8) at No. 21 James Madison (9-0), 2 p.m. ET
James Madison racked up 567 yards in an emphatic road win at Georgia State last weekend. I find it highly unlikely that UConn, which is averaging just 17.9 points per game, can keep up.
Prediction: James Madison 45, UConn 14
AP Nos. 20-16
Tulsa (3-6) at No. 20 Tulane (8-1), Noon ET
Tulane is the obvious favorite here and should win. Three straight close calls against North Texas, Rice and East Carolina are moderately concerning, though. Can the Green Wave finally put together a comfortable win? I'm probably in believe-it-when-I-see-it mode.
Prediction: Tulane 33, Tulsa 17
Texas Tech (4-5) at No. 19 Kansas (7-2), Noon ET
Kansas is 5-0 in Lawrence, and its only win without a double-digit margin was the upset of Oklahoma. That seems like a true home-field advantage, no? If the Jayhawks win, they'll pick up a fifth conference victory for the first time since 1995—as a member of the Big 8.
Prediction: Kansas 36, Texas Tech 29
Florida (5-4) at No. 18 LSU (6-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
The status of quarterback Jayden Daniels (concussion) is the main storyline for LSU. Even without him, wide receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are capable of slicing through a struggling Florida defense. LSU's defense is still an issue, but the Tigers should win at home.
Prediction: LSU 34, Florida 28
West Virginia (6-3) at No. 17 Oklahoma (7-2), 7 p.m. ET
Back-to-back losses have ruined Oklahoma's title dreams, and West Virginia won't be any easier to beat. However, the Sooners are at home and taking on an inconsistent WVU defense. It might not be a comfortable night, but OU should get back in the win column.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30, West Virginia 23
No. 14 Tennessee (7-2) at No. 16 Missouri (7-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
See No. 14 Tennessee for prediction.
AP Nos. 15-11
No. 15 Oklahoma State (7-2) at Central Florida (4-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
After a huge rivalry win, this matchup screams "trap game" for Oklahoma State. The bright side for the Pokes is UCF's defense has been pretty bad in Big 12 action, surrendering 38.2 points per game. Another gaudy box score should be coming for OSU back Ollie Gordon II.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, UCF 31
No. 14 Tennessee (7-2) at No. 16 Missouri (7-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
For me, the conversation is simple: This outcome hinges on Tennessee's passing game. Joe Milton III has been inefficient for much of the season, but he played well at Kentucky before shredding UConn last week. Georgia and LSU both found success opposite a solid Missouri secondary, though. While it's uncomfortable to pick against a slight home underdog, I'll take Tennessee in a tight game.
Prediction: Tennessee 27, Missouri 24
No. 13 Utah (7-2) at No. 5 Washington (9-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
See No. 5 Washington for prediction.
Stanford (3-6) at No. 12 Oregon State (7-2), 5:30 p.m. ET
Unfortunately, I'm not allowed to give up predicting Stanford games. I have no confidence in which version of the Cardinal will take the field, though. They put 46 points on Colorado in a win, seven on UCLA in a loss, 33 on Washington in a loss and 10 on Washington State in a win. Oregon State should improve to 8-2, but who knows!
Prediction: Oregon State 34, Stanford 20
Virginia (2-7) at No. 11 Louisville (8-1), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Defense has fueled Louisville's unexpected run to the brink of the ACC Championship Game. Win here, and the Cardinals can—if Duke upsets UNC—clinch that berth. Regardless of that result, UL figures to cruise past a UVA squad that lost 45-17 to Georgia Tech last weekend.
Prediction: Louisville 35, Virginia 13
AP Nos. 10-6
No. 10 Ole Miss (8-1) at No. 1 Georgia (9-0), 7 p.m. ET
See No. 1 Georgia for prediction.
No. 2 Michigan (9-0) at No. 9 Penn State (8-1), Noon ET
See No. 2 Michigan for prediction.
No. 8 Alabama (8-1) at Kentucky (6-3), Noon ET
Since losing to Texas, Alabama has held every opponent to 21 points or fewer except LSU—which is led by Jayden Daniels, the nation's most productive dual-threat QB. In other words, Kentucky had better play a perfect defensive game to make an upset look possible.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Kentucky 17
No. 7 Texas (8-1) at TCU (4-5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Even if Quinn Ewers (shoulder) will be available, Steve Sarkisian likely won't say anything. Competitive advantage and all that. Anyway, the Longhorns know better than to overlook TCU despite its record; TCU is 8-3 in 11 games as Big 12 counterparts. But in the final meeting before Texas heads to the SEC, a stingy defense fuels a key Longhorns win.
Prediction: Texas 27, TCU 16
USC (7-3) at No. 6 Oregon (8-1), 10:30 p.m. ET
It's no mystery why USC's championship dreams are dashed. Over the last six games, the Trojans have yielded 44.2 points per contest. Oregon, meanwhile, leads the nation with a 47.4-point scoring average. Fun!
Prediction: Oregon 48, USC 34
AP Nos. 5-1
No. 13 Utah (7-2) at No. 5 Washington (9-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
All season, the question for Utah has been whether its defense can be the best unit on the field. More often than not, that's happened. Kyle Whittingham has done a masterful job atoning for a short-handed offense in 2023. But a win at Washington? Whew. Big ask.
Prediction: Washington 27, Utah 14
Miami (6-3) at No. 4 Florida State (9-0), 3:30 p.m. ET
Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke looked unstoppable during an impressive day against a quality Texas A&M defense in September. Lately, he's been terrible. Van Dyke has thrown 10 interceptions in his last four starts, which include losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina State. Not a great sign heading into a game at Florida State.
Prediction: Florida State 37, Miami 17
Michigan State (3-6) at No. 3 Ohio State (9-0), 7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio State fans dread the memory of MSU's shocking upset in Columbus back in 2015. Since a tight game in 2016, though, this series hasn't been competitive. Ohio State owns six straight wins of 20-plus points, and that streak figures to continue on Saturday night.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 14
No. 2 Michigan (9-0) at No. 9 Penn State (8-1), Noon ET
The weekend slate begins with a massive showdown in Happy Valley. Penn State has built an 8-1 record on the back of strong defense and a low-risk offensive style. Unless the Nittany Lions only allow 17 points or so, they'll need to uncork some explosive plays to take down Michigan. However, I haven't seen it—Penn State is 127th nationally in gains of 20-plus—so I won't predict it, either.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Penn State 16
No. 10 Ole Miss (8-1) at No. 1 Georgia (9-0), 7 p.m. ET
The streakiness of the Ole Miss offense is a concern, and it's a primary reason I'm taking Georgia—which also hasn't lose at home since October 2019. But if the Rebels contain what's been a modest UGA rushing attack, this critical SEC matchup will get very interesting, very quickly.
Prediction: Georgia 26, Ole Miss 21
Rest of the Slate, Part I
Southern Miss (2-7) at Louisiana (5-4), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana 33, Southern Miss 14
North Texas (3-6) at SMU (7-2), Friday, 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: SMU 48, North Texas 24
Wyoming (6-3) at UNLV (7-2), Friday, 10:45 p.m. ET
Prediction: UNLV 27, Wyoming 17
Virginia Tech (4-5) at Boston College (6-3), Noon ET
Prediction: Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 20
Georgia Tech (5-4) at Clemson (5-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Clemson 31, Georgia Tech 21
Maryland (5-4) at Nebraska (5-4), Noon ET
Prediction: Nebraska 26, Maryland 23
Indiana (3-6) at Illinois (4-5), Noon ET
Prediction: Illinois 23, Indiana 17
Vanderbilt (2-8) at South Carolina (3-6), Noon ET
Prediction: South Carolina 34, Vanderbilt 21
Temple (3-6) at South Florida (4-5), Noon ET
Prediction: USF 30, Temple 24
Holy Cross (6-3) at Army (3-6), Noon ET
Prediction: Army 24, Holy Cross 21
North Carolina State (6-3) at Wake Forest (4-5), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: NC State 23, Wake Forest 16
Memphis (7-2) at Charlotte (3-6), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Memphis 34, Charlotte 17
Appalachian State (5-4) at Georgia State (6-3), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia State 31, App State 27
Troy (7-2) at Louisiana-Monroe (2-7), 2 p.m. ET
Prediction: Troy 35, ULM 14
Rest of the Slate, Part II
Baylor (3-6) at Kansas State (6-3), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Kansas State 31, Baylor 17
Sam Houston (1-8) at Louisiana Tech (3-7), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 24, Sam Houston 14
Nevada (2-7) at Utah State (4-5), 3 p.m. ET
Prediction: Utah State 34, Nevada 24
Pitt (2-7) at Syracuse (4-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Syracuse 27, Pitt 21
Rutgers (6-3) at Iowa (7-2), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Iowa 14, Rutgers 13
Northwestern (4-5) at Wisconsin (5-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Wisconsin 20, Northwestern 16
Minnesota (5-4) at Purdue (2-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Minnesota 24, Purdue 20
UAB (3-6) at Navy (3-5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Navy 28, UAB 23
Florida International (4-5) at Middle Tennessee (2-7), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: MTSU 27, FIU 24
New Mexico State (7-3) at Western Kentucky (5-4), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: New Mexico State 31, WKU 27
Texas State (6-3) at Coastal Carolina (6-3), 3:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 34, Texas State 31
Auburn (5-4) at Arkansas (3-6), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Arkansas 24, Auburn 23
Washington State (4-5) at Cal (3-6), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: Cal 28, Washington State 24
East Carolina (1-8) at Florida Atlantic (4-5), 4 p.m. ET
Prediction: FAU 23, East Carolina 17
Arkansas State (5-4) at South Alabama (4-5), 5 p.m. ET
Prediction: South Alabama 30, Arkansas State 27
Rest of the Slate, Part III
Cincinnati (2-7) at Houston (4-5), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Houston 34, Cincinnati 24
San Diego State (3-6) at Colorado State (3-6), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Colorado State 27, SDSU 21
Georgia Southern (6-3) at Marshall (4-5), 7 p.m. ET
Prediction: Georgia Southern 28, Marshall 13
Mississippi State (4-5) at Texas A&M (5-4), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Mississippi State 20, Texas A&M 17
Rice (4-5) at UTSA (6-3), 7:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: UTSA 35, Rice 24
Arizona State (2-7) at UCLA (6-3), 9 p.m. ET
Prediction: UCLA 33, Arizona State 14
New Mexico (3-6) at Boise State (4-5), 10 p.m. ET
Prediction: Boise State 42, New Mexico 24
Iowa State (5-4) at BYU (5-4), 10:15 p.m. ET
Prediction: BYU 20, Iowa State 16
Fresno State (8-1) at San Jose State (4-5), 10:30 p.m. ET
Prediction: Fresno State 34, San Jose State 27
Air Force (8-1) at Hawaii (3-7), 11 p.m. ET
Prediction: Air Force 28, Hawaii 10