Top NFL Free Agents Most Likely to Switch Teams in 2024

Most years, the list of future free agents is attractive. The problem that constantly arises for NFL teams, however, is that several of those standout players often don't truly hit the open market.

For example, few people legitimately expected Lamar Jackson to leave the Baltimore Ravens in 2023. And he didn't.

As we look ahead to the class of free agents in 2024, we've identified eight players who—for a variety of reasons—may seriously consider a new football home. Key factors are a player's expected value and current fit along with a team's financial and on-field outlooks.

The eight players are each listed in the top 15 of Bleacher Report's early big board for 2024 free agency.

To be absolutely clear: Nobody is guaranteed to leave. If a top talent does, though, it's most likely from within this group.

Mike Evans has not telegraphed his plans, but his agent certainly fired a warning shot in September.

The receiver's representation set a pre-Week 1 deadline for an extension, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could not agree to a deal. Evans' agency said it will not engage in contract talks during the season.

And so, a breakup may be inevitable.

"With talks about a contract extension at an impasse, the greatest offensive weapon in club history is playing what likely will be his final season in Tampa Bay," Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times said.

Evans carries a decent level of risk, because he'll be seeking a long-term entering his age-31 campaign. It's tough to see Tampa shelling out that money with Chris Godwin under contract, as well as young linebacker Devin White and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. needing new deals.

Evans has spent a very successful decade with the Bucs, but the next stage of his career will probably be elsewhere.

That pesky salary cap.

As the Kansas City Chiefs chase a third championship in the past five seasons, they're looking at a complicated offseason.

All-Pro pass-rusher lineman Chris Jones is headed for free agency, and he'll be incredibly expensive. Kansas City has seen its defense without Jones, though, and it's not great. Letting him walk could be devastating.

The issue is his price tag probably means the Chiefs will be unable to keep cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, too. He's been a fantastic player in four seasons with Kansas City. But as a low-cost fourth-round pick in 2020, this contract is particularly important for Sneed's career earnings.

Sneed already has a ring and will be a top corner available. It's only reasonable for him, entering his age-26 season, to put a little more emphasis on his salary if he so chooses.

In the aftermath of a season-ending Achilles injury, it's become perfectly clear that the Minnesota Vikings—both the player and the organization as a whole—have immense respect for Kirk Cousins.

Literally speaking, what is that worth?

Cousins should be healthy in time for the 2024 season, barring an atypical recovery process. He'll also be 36 years old, and the Vikings already have a messy cap sheet that absolutely must leave room for an extension for superstar wideout Justin Jefferson. Pass-rushers Danielle Hunter (more on him shortly) and Marcus Davenport will be free agents, too.

There's also the variable of Joshua Dobbs and rookie Jaren Hall. If either one plays well and guides Minnesota to the playoffs in Cousins' absence, would the Vikings be comfortable committing to him?

Provided his medical check is fine, Cousins will be a highly valued QB in free agency. He just might not be staying in Minnesota.

Shortly before the deadline, the Chicago Bears gave permission for Jaylon Johnson's agent to explore a trade. It didn't happen, but that's clearly not a positive sign about his future in Chicago.

You can practically feel the excitement building for free agency.

Johnson has assembled a career year to date, surrendering just 5.3 yards per target in 2023. Through nine weeks, Pro Football Focus has rated Johnson as the second-best cornerback in the league. The fourth-year starter is a strong candidate to earn his first All-Pro honors.

Among all these marquee players, Johnson seems the most likely candidate to sign elsewhere in free agency.

Given that cornerback is practically a need for every NFL team, Johnson shouldn't have a shortage of suitors, either.

Tee Higgins has an enviable decision to make: Become an offense's clear-cut No. 1 receiver, or stay on a stacked offense?

Either way, he'll be rewarded handsomely this offseason.

Higgins may attract $25-plus million from a team in desperate need of a top target. If you're a fan of the Cincinnati Bengals, the good news is they can afford to keep him. According to Over the Cap, the Bengals have $70 million in effective space for 2024 as of today.

The challenge is the reality that Cincy can build a receiving corps around Ja'Marr Chase. It's plausible the Bengals choose to fortify the rest of the roster prior to Joe Burrow's megadeal kicking in and Chase's anticipated extension next season.

I wouldn't let Higgins walk, no. But a receiver-starved team could toss a contract his way that Cincinnati prefers not to match.

There is an ever-growing risk that hindsight will not look favorably on how the Carolina Panthers handled Brian Burns.

Before the 2022 deadline, the Los Angeles Rams offered two first-round selections and a second-round choice for him. Carolina then turned away interest at the 2023 deadline. In the meantime, however, the Panthers also never worked out an extension, either.

ESPN's David Newton noted Burns recently said that negotiations will not happen "until it makes sense" to resume talks.

At the very least, that probably means if and when the Panthers are eliminated from playoff contention. More likely, that's pointing to the end of the regular season.

Carolina could use the franchise tag, which complicates this discussion. Yet there's a real chance Burns—as a reasonable leverage play—would threaten a holdout to avoid it.

Burns has a fascinating offseason ahead.

While it's not entirely untrue that salary cap is sort of imaginary, some franchises test the limit of that flexibility. Minnesota is very much playing with proverbial fire on the financial side.

Can the Vikings actually afford to keep Cousins, Jefferson and Danielle Hunter without a cap disaster in, say, 2027? Front-loaded deals, void years, restructures and other contract tricks can minimize a short-term problem, but those gymnastics have to hurt eventually.

Minnesota might embrace it!

Again, though, we're simply looking at probability. Hunter is a tremendous player, yet the Vikings hired Brian Flores to run a pressure-heavy defense. When you're blitzing so often anyway, can the volume of blitzes atone for the departure of an elite edge-rusher?

Negotiations with Hunter will probably the most difficult talks of the offseason for Minnesota.

Rashan Gary recently inked a four-year, $107.5 million extension with the Green Bay Packers. Only a few days later, Montez Sweat and the Bears agreed to a four-year, $98 million pact.

Given that Josh Allen is comparable in both age and production, the range of his contract talks is now clear.

From my perspective, the Jacksonville Jaguars can hardly afford to not bring him back. Allen has accounted for nine of the defense's 16 sacks in 2023, so losing him could be a crushing blow to the pass-rushing group.

One complication would be if the Jags are willing to push Travon Walker, the first pick of the 2022 draft, into a featured role. Whether that's a wise decision is a fair question, yet Allen is clearly in position to start negotiations at around $25 million per season.

Jacksonville should want to keep Allen, but he—one of the NFL's most productive pass-rushers—will be highly coveted in free agency.