NFL Week 11 Survivor Pool Tips: Best Picks and Strategies to Stay Alive

It's getting tough out there for survivor-pool participants. The upsets keep coming, and they've largely been coming from unexpected places.

Who expected the Baltimore Ravens to blow a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead against the offensively inconsistent Cleveland Browns? Who saw the Denver Broncos all but end the Buffalo Bills' title hopes before Buffalo's brutal stretch to end the season?

At least the Dallas Cowboys handled their business against the New York Giants in Week 10.

It's getting difficult to trust even the heavy favorites, but if you're still alive in a survivor game, you have to pick somebody in Week 11. Below, you'll find some advice for navigating another week, using the latest Week 11 odds as a guideline.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

As is usually the case, our advice starts with knowing who to avoid. This week, we have a pair of AFC North matchups that we'd avoid at all costs.

The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night, and the Ravens are four-point favorites. Short-week games are always tough, and that's not an encouraging line for the home team.

The Cleveland Browns are four-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and that's another tricky one to call. Both the Steelers and Browns have tremendous defenses offset by wildly inconsistent offenses.

We saw the good version of Deshaun Watson in the second half of the Ravens game, but he's dealing with an ankle injury and actively cost Cleveland the game the last time he played Pittsburgh.

The biggest reason to avoid this pair of games is that AFC North teams are cannibalizing one another. The Ravens have beaten the Browns and the Bengals, the Browns have beaten the Bengals and the Ravens, while the Steelers have beaten the Ravens and Browns.

Only Cincinnati remains winless in divisional play.

We'd also suggest avoiding the Sunday night matchup between the Denver Broncos (-2) and Minnesota Vikings, along with the Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs (-3).

Prime-time games are notoriously tricky, and these are two pairings that are extremely difficult to call.

It's time to trust the San Francisco 49ers once again. The 49ers lost three straight heading into the bye week, but they came out fast against a good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Sunday.

The return of wide receiver Deebo Samuel did a lot for Brock Purdy and the offense. The arrival of Chase Young, the move of coordinator Steve Wilks to the sideline and the bye seemed to help re-energize the defense.

San Francisco thumped the Jaguars in a 34-3 blowout.

Now the 49ers are 11.5-point favorites at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. While the Bucs have enough talent to keep this game close, they're not built to beat a team like San Francisco on the road.

Baker Mayfield has played well, but he's unlikely to shred San Francisco's secondary the way quarterbacks Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow did earlier in the year. The Buccaneers pass defense (31st in yards allowed), will be a problem against Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.

There's a chance that the 49ers don't cover, but they should win.

If you've waited until now to pick the Dallas Cowboys, it might be last call. Dak Prescott and Co. travel to face the underwhelming Carolina Panthers and rookie quarterback Bryce Young.

While Dallas' defense might not be elite, it's good enough to overtake a Panthers offense that has struggled against even middling defenses. The Cowboys are heavy 10.5-point favorites here.

And Dallas' upcoming schedule is tough. The scrappy Washington Commanders are on deck, followed by the Seattle Seahawks, the Eagles, the Bills, the Miami Dolphins, the Detroit Lions and the Commanders again.

There isn't an "easy" win on Dallas' schedule after this week.

If Dallas isn't available, try sneaking in the Jaguars (-6.5) at home against the Tennessee Titans. Jacksonville will be eager to bounce back after last week's embarrassment, and opposing defenses may have caught up with rookie Titans quarterback Will Levis.

Levis played tremendously in his first two starts but finished 18-of-39 for 199 yards and an interception against a bad Buccaneers secondary.

The Commanders (-10) also feel like a safe backup pick against a Giants team hampered by injuries and perhaps more interested in chasing a top draft selection than winning.

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