Ranking Blue Jays 3B Matt Chapman's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency

Teams in need of help at the hot corner are in luck, as Matt Chapman just so happens to be available to the highest bidder.

It's fair to hesitate calling the 30-year-old a "star," but he's certainly among the more productive infielders in Major League Baseball. He's tied for sixth among infielders in WAR since 2018, ahead of even $300 million men Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner and Manny Machado.

Does this mean Chapman himself is in the market for a $300 million deal? That's highly doubtful, but his free agency outlook is nonetheless deserving of thorough discussion.

Let's go deep on Chapman's value before speculating on his 10 best potential landing spots.

If Chapman is nothing else, he's certainly an elite defender.

The seven-year veteran of the Oakland Athletics and Toronto Blue Jays won his fourth Gold Glove last week. He's otherwise a two-time Platinum Glove winner who leads all defenders in Defensive Runs Saved over the last six seasons.

Chapman's bat, on the other hand, is more of a question mark.

His first 422 games yielded a firmly above average 127 OPS+ and 84 home runs. But since he had hip surgery in Sep. 2020, his production has sagged to a 108 OPS+ and 71 home runs over 446 games. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, as he landed in the 16th percentile for strikeout rate in 2023.

On the plus side, Chapman was in the 78th percentile for walk rate and in the 100th percentile for hard-hit rate. Teams can look at these things and wonder if maybe he's only a small tweak or two from reemerging as a consistent offensive force.

Javier Báez and Trevor Story landed $140 million contracts two winters ago in the face of questions pertaining to their abilities. Even though he's now attached to draft pick compensation after rejecting the qualifying offer, Chapman may be ticketed for that same neighborhood. Jon Heyman of the New York Post and MLB Trade Rumors have both flagged him for a $150 million deal.

As for teams who need help at the hot corner and who could have that kind of money to spend, let's rank 10 possibilities based on how much sense they make for Chapman.

Note: All WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference, with 2024 roster projections courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

2023 Third Base WAR: 2.3 (15th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Eugenio Suárez

If anyone's going to exclaim that Suárez was just fine at third base in 2023, well, that's true. He was.

But should the Mariners settle for just fine at the hot corner? They can at least do better defensively, as it's largely on Suárez that the team finished under water for both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating at third base this season.

Were the Mariners to sign Chapman, they could shift the right-handed-hitting Suárez to designated hitter, where he could work either in tandem with or simply over the left-handed-hitting Mike Ford. Either way, the Mariners will have simultaneously strengthened their defense and deepened their offense.

However, whether this fun idea is at all practical is suspect. Seattle's payroll is already projected to open 2024 about where it ended 2023, and signing Chapman otherwise wouldn't jive with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto's desire to add high-contact hitters.

2023 Third Base WAR: 0.4 (23rd)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Alec Bohm

Perhaps even more so than the Mariners, the Phillies could stand to upgrade on their incumbent at third base.

Bohm may have supplied the Phillies with a solid .765 OPS and 20 home runs this year, but it's also because of him that third base yielded minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved. It's an all-too-familiar story, as Bohm has the lowest DRS of any individual fielder since 2020.

Meanwhile, there's a $32 million gap between where the Phillies' payroll ended 2023 and where it's projected to open in 2024. And for his part, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski's philosophy is that a team needs star players to win.

But even if the money aspect is more practical than it is with the Mariners, we're still firmly in "Fun Idea" territory here. The Phillies also have more pressing needs, including in their starting rotation and in their bullpen.

2023 Third Base WAR: Minus-1.2 (30th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Brett Baty

Both offensively and defensively, third base was a nightmare for the Mets this year.

To the former, the position's .590 OPS ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams. To the latter, it produced minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-9 Outs Above Average.

It's hard to conjure a better fit for Chapman just on these grounds, and then there's what the Mets can hypothetically afford to spend. They opened this season with a $330.7 million payroll. Their projected spending for 2024 is a mere $267 million.

But since the Mets are in a quasi-rebuild right now, it wasn't surprising when Heyman reported last Thursday that they "don't seem involved" on Chapman. President of baseball operations David Stearns might as well have confirmed as much when he threw his support behind Baty and fellow young incumbent Ronny Mauricio.

2023 Third Base WAR: 0.2 (24th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: DJ LeMahieu

Elsewhere in New York, the Yankees were the team that Jon Morosi of MLB.com zeroed in on in his report on Chapman last week:

"One team I'm watching very carefully on Chapman [is] the New York Yankees," said Morosi, adding: "Third base for them has been a bit of a revolving door the last year-plus."

This is true, which is to say nothing of the fact that the hot corner was an offensive black hole marked by a .655 OPS and 17 home runs. It did fare better defensively, but there would be nothing wrong with lining Chapman up next to fellow Gold Glover Anthony Volpe.

However, the last thing the Yankees need is another 30-something right-handed hitter who's prone to striking out. The $31 million gap between their 2023 spending and projected 2024 payroll should be filled in other, better ways.

2023 Third Base WAR: 4.7 (4th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Cavan Biggio

Chapman and the Blue Jays obviously had a good thing going in 2022 and 2023, and it seems the Blue Jays would like to keep it going in 2024 and beyond.

According to Heyman, they've met with Chapman and have made re-signing him a "priority" for their offseason:

This is further evidence that the Jays aren't messing around, as general manager Ross Atkins has said he wants to add at least one and as many as four hitters. Cody Bellinger is another hypothetical option, but the obvious appeal with Chapman is that the Jays don't need to speculate how he fits their lineup and defense.

But can they make the money work? It seems iffy. There's only a $9 million difference between where Toronto is projected to start 2024 and where it ended 2023, wherein the club notably blew away its previous payroll records.

2023 Third Base WAR: 2.5 (13th)

Projected 2024 Third Baseman: Max Muncy

There's nothing solid to suggest the Dodgers are actually interested in Chapman, but Heyman and Jim Bowden of The Athletic had previously labeled the sides as a fit.

If nothing else, the Dodgers would seem to have the budget for Chapman. They spent $236 million this season. Right now, they only have $142 million in established and projected salaries on their books for 2024.

Nobody can say Muncy doesn't have a bat worthy of the hot corner, but the position's defensive metrics sagged under his stewardship. Worst of all was its minus-15 Outs Above Average, which ranked second-to-last in MLB.

But as evidenced by the fact that he didn't play there at all in 2023, the Dodgers probably don't want to shift Muncy to second base. The only other viable home for him is designated hitter and, well, that's where Shohei Ohtani is supposed to go.

2023 Third Base WAR: 1.1 (20th)

Projected 2024 Third Baseman: Nick Madrigal

Those pieces by Heyman and Bowden likewise tabbed the Cubs as a prospective fit for Chapman. And at least on paper, it still works.

Third base wasn't an offensive desert for the Cubs this season, but it only produced 20 home runs and it doesn't figure to provide more if Madrigal is indeed the regular in 2024. He's cleared the fence only four times in 846 major league plate appearances.

Otherwise, adding Chapman to Chicago's defense would be a worthwhile exercise in overkill. He'd line up alongside fellow Gold Glovers Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner to form the best infield defense in all of MLB.

But while the Cubs could add as much as $25 million to their payroll if they're comfortable matching their record $203 million payroll from 2019, other needs should perhaps take precedence. First base is a big one, and there are holes in both the rotation and the bullpen.

2023 Third Base WAR: Minus-0.3 (27th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Matt Vierling

Third base was a failed position for the Tigers in 2023. Its .624 OPS ranked 28th, while its minus-22 Defensive Runs Saved and minus-18 Outs Above Average both ranked last.

The on-paper fit for Chapman is therefore clear, and the $79 million the Tigers are projected to spend in 2024 is a far cry from their record payroll of $199.8 million from 2017. As such, the question is whether the Tigers want to spend.

They perhaps should after finishing second in the American League Central, but president of baseball operations Scott Harris didn't make any promises in October. If anything, he sounded wary of repeating his predecessor's mistakes.

"Recent history in this game will tell you that some organizations have either overestimated their proximity to contention or they have tried to take a shortcut to contention by spending heavily in free agency, and it hasn't worked," Harris said. "It hasn't pushed them forward. In fact, in some cases, it set them back."

2023 Third Base WAR: 0.0 (25th)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: Geraldo Perdomo

It's not a report that they're specifically eyeing Chapman, but Heyman noted that the National League champion Diamondbacks are "eyeing third base."

The position wasn't a strength in 2023, particularly in the sense that it ranked 27th with a .644 OPS while producing only 10 home runs. Only the Kansas City Royals got fewer long balls (six) from the hot corner.

The plan for now seems to be to move Perdomo to third, with 10th-ranked prospect Jordan Lawlar taking over at shortstop. It's a solid plan, but an even better one is signing Chapman and shifting Perdomo into a utility role.

The Snakes seem to have at least $20 million to add to their payroll. And maybe more, as managing general partner Ken Kendrick hinted on Arizona Sports' Burns & Gambo Show last week: "There is a windfall of this last month and we will use that to invest back in the players on the field and it will allow us to make some additions to the roster."

2023 Third Base WAR: 0.6 (22nd)

2024 Projected Third Baseman: J.D. Davis

Along with the Diamondbacks, Heyman noted the Giants also have an eye on third base.

To be fair, Defensive Runs Saved is the only metric that doesn't offer a strong rating for Davis' defensive work this season. He also had a .738 OPS with 18 home runs, which will do for a hitter who must contend with Oracle Park's dimensions.

All the same, Chapman would be a step up from his former Cal State Fullerton teammate. He also has contacts of sorts among the Giants leadership. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was still with the A's when they drafted Chapman in 2014, and newly hired skipper Bob Melvin managed him in Oakland between 2017 and 2021.

Money-wise, the Giants' payroll has gone as high as $200 million in the past. Or, $53 million higher than what they're projected for in 2024. If not on one Shohei Ohtani, that kind of money could be enough for two Chapmans.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.