Ranking All 30 Teams' Chances of Landing Shohei Ohtani in MLB Free Agency

Every team in Major League Baseball would love to have Shohei Ohtani. A historically productive two-way player who's now a two-time MVP? Yeah, that's a good guy to have around.

But which teams actually have a chance to sign him in free agency?

Rather than simply look at the most practical ones, it seemed instructive and frankly more fun to look at all his options. As in, all 30 of them. Ranked in order from the worst fit to the best.

Based on their needs, finances and (perhaps most important of all) contention windows, there are at most 10 realistic suitors for the 29-year-old Ohtani. Yet the other 20 teams in MLB are at least worth thinking about, even if they're only worth assessing in groups rather than one at a time.

Also, a reminder that Ohtani will only be a one-way player in 2024. He had some kind of elbow surgery in September that figures to keep him off the mound until 2025. This matters for everyone, but surely for some teams more than others.

In any case, let's get to it.

In This Tier: Teams that have neither the dollars nor the contention timelines.

30. Oakland Athletics

Ohtani in Las Vegas? Sounds like a hot ticket! It's therefore too bad the move isn't happening until 2028, which is to say nothing of how it might not be much of a financial windfall anyway.

29. Pittsburgh Pirates

If you don't want to see Ohtani and Oneil Cruz in the same lineup, then we just can't be friends. But this is as far as thoughts of this partnership can go, as Ohtani is worth more than all the money ($344 million) the Pirates have spent in free agency since 1991.

28. Kansas City Royals

Ohtani and Bobby Witt Jr. is another for the "Now, That I'd Like to See" file. But even if they're historically a bigger spender than the Pirates, the Royals are only signing Ohtani if they can convince him that their 106-loss team is worth a huge discount.

27. Chicago White Sox

Ohtani on the White Sox would have been a fun concept in 2021, when they seemed to be a sustainable upward trend. But things on the South Side have gone, uh, a bit south since then, and it's not as if the team is a big spender in the best of times.

In This Tier: Teams that have traditionally had the money, but are not currently contending.

26. Colorado Rockies

Ohtani's arm wouldn't love Coors Field, but it's doubtful that his bat would have any complaints. Now, if only the Rockies weren't the absolute worst at turning dollars into wins.

25. Washington Nationals

The Nationals opened with MLB's fourth-highest payroll the year that they won the World Series in 2019, and they may yet get back to that level of spending. But that day is somewhere on the other side of a rebuild that's still a muddy picture.

24. Detroit Tigers

The Tigers once had MLB's second-highest payroll back in 2017, and the emergence Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson this year make it tempting to dream of a return to those good ol' days. However, the vibe coming from the team says not to count on it.

In This Tier: Both real and ostensible contenders who have the need for Ohtani, but likely not the dollars.

23. Miami Marlins

The Marlins needed power even before Jorge Soler filed for free agency, and Ohtani would otherwise be just the guy to finally lure fans out to LoanDepot Park. But, alas, Bruce Sherman isn't much more free-spending than Jeffrey Loria was.

22. Cleveland Guardians

Think the Marlins need power? Psh. Try the Guardians, who hit only 124 home runs in 2023. But as fun as Ohtani and José Ramírez joining forces sounds, only four teams have spent less in free agency since 1991 than the Guardians.

21. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have some kind of magical formula that's yielded five playoff trips in the last six years. Ohtani himself might love to know what this formula is. But he's also presumably a fan of money, which the Brewers don't have.

20. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals want to increase payroll and they need both left-handed power and long-term pitching upside. But they've never gone higher than $120 million for a free agent, which is to say nothing of their uncertain contention timeline after their last-place finish this year.

19. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have the third-most wins since 2008 and are riding a string of five straight playoff appearances. But just when one starts to imagine what they could do with Ohtani, the reality that Zach Eflin's $40 million deal is a club record for free agency comes crashing down.

18. Cincinnati Reds

Ohtani joining forces with Elly De La Cruz and the Reds' stacked cast of young players? Yes, please. Ohtani also taking hacks at Great American Ball Park? YES, PLEASE. But then one remembers that this team's ownership is just the worst.

17. Baltimore Orioles

Ohtani and Adley Rutschman? Ohtani and Gunnar Henderson? Ohtani and Jackson Holliday? Pick an Orioles pairing. Any pairing. They're all exciting. But if Reds ownership is just the worst, Orioles ownership is arguably just the next-worst.

In This Tier: Contending teams for whom Ohtani would be a great fit, but whose payrolls are more or less maxed out.

16. Minnesota Twins

The Twins need a dash of left-handed power to go with Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, and Ohtani's arm would further supercharge what was the American League's best rotation in 2023. It's too bad, then, about the team's cost-cutting goals.

15. Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-backs are hinting at a payroll increase after winning the National League pennant. Maybe there's enough there for Ohtani, who'd team his bat with Corbin Carroll's and his arm with Zac Gallen's. But given the team's spending history, that "maybe" is doing some heavy lifting.

14. San Diego Padres

Ohtani alongside Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr.? Eat your heart out, 1927 Yankees. But unless the the Padres pivot from their plan to take a $50 million bite out of their payroll, this is probably A Thing That Won't Happen.

13. Houston Astros

If 2024 is going to be a "Last Dance" kind of season for the Astros, they might as well go all-in, right? But for the Astros to actually put Ohtani in the same lineup as Yordan Álvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, they might have to start a Go Fund Me.

12. Philadelphia Phillies

You think you love star players? You don't. At least not as much as Dave Dombrowski, and it's possible he'll have the budget to further add to his record of gigantic splashes. The catch is that they need an arm now and not later, but...well, I should stop before I get my hopes up.

11. Atlanta

In this scenario, Ohtani would join up with fellow unanimous MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and with an offense that's fresh off one of the greatest seasons in MLB history. This is as fun as ideas get, so let's not spoil it by bringing the team's iffy budget into the equation.

The Angels are, of course, the only MLB franchise Ohtani has ever known. And they want him back.

At least, that was the sense one got from Angels general manager Perry Minasian when he unloaded about Ohtani at the end of the 2023 season:

You know what? Ohtani returning to Anaheim isn't a totally outrageous idea. In addition to familiarity, the money would seem to be there. There's a $62 million gap between where the Angels ended 2023 and where they project to open 2024.

But the moment one starts to take this idea seriously is swiftly followed by realizations that A) Ohtani couldn't seem to wait to leave in September and B) the Angels might be the most doomed "contender" in MLB.

They haven't made the playoffs in nine years, tying for the longest such streak in MLB. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are both on albatross contracts. And last but not least, the farm system is kaput.

Think about the one thing you want more than anything else in life. Whatever it is, you don't want it like Mariners fans want Ohtani to come to Seattle.

They even had a danged chant ready for him at the danged All-Star Game this year:

That didn't go unheard by Ohtani, nor did it leave him unimpressed.

"I've never experienced anything like that, but I definitely heard it," he said through his interpreter. "I was just trying to focus on my at-bat and the game...Every time I come here the fans are passionate, they're really into the game. So it's very impressive."

However, this is about as far as one can take this concept seriously. Because as much as they legitimately need his bat alongside that of Julio Rodríguez in their lineup, it's hard to separate president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto's sudden aversion to "big-name players" from the club's seemingly maxed-out payroll.

Call it a dated impulse if you want, but the Yankees are worth bringing into this discussion because they're, well, the Yankees.

They're only the single biggest spender in free agency over the last 30-odd years, after all, and into that total went a league-high $574.5 million last winter.

And who knows? Maybe there's a door for Giancarlo Stanton to vacate the designated hitter spot after general manager Brian Cashman—who really seems to have stopped giving a you-know-what—threw him under the bus.

Having Ohtani at DH instead of Stanton would be a slight upgrade, in no small part because the former swings from the left side. The Yankees were sorely lacking in that department in 2023, which was unforgivable given that Yankee Stadium still has little-league dimensions in right field.

Yet even setting aside the improbability of moving Stanton, word is that Ohtani doesn't love pitching at Yankee Stadium. When you also consider that this is a shallow team that hasn't been to the World Series in 14 years, the lack of buzz connecting the two sides begins to make sense.

The Mets as a top destination for Ohtani? What is this? April?

The idea has indeed lost steam since then, in part because the Mets' immediate future was thrown up in the air when they hit the "[Bleep] It!" button on their 2023 season with their fire sale at the trade deadline. They've been cagey on 2024 ever since.

Even against this backdrop, though, the Mets still resemble an attractive destination for free agents. Their major league roster is reasonably solid, their farm system is elite and we know that owner Steve Cohen isn't totally against record-setting payrolls.

There's also the more basic reality that the Mets need Ohtani. The DH spot was a huge weakness for them in 2023, and said farm system doesn't figure to provide the same long-term pitching upside that Ohtani can.

But now for the part where the pessimism starts to sink back in. Because even if Ohtani-to-the-Mets still works in theory, in reality the club lost its Ohtani whisperer when Billy Eppler stepped down and its attention has reportedly already shifted elsewhere.

Up until recently, Ohtani joining the Blue Jays was a fun idea pretty much only on paper.

They got good stuff from Brandon Belt this year, but he's a free agent again and has left behind a hole for a left-handed hitter in the DH spot. Not to imply that he's jelly or something, but Ohtani is the best possible filling for said hole.

The Blue Jays also need to be thinking about their rotation. Kevin Gausman and José Berríos are locked down through at least 2026, but Yusei Kikuchi's contract is up after 2024 and Chris Bassitt's will be up after 2025.

What's changed recently is that Toronto is suddenly crashing the party that is Ohtani's section of the offseason rumor mill. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN have both identified them as a real fit for Ohtani, with the latter hearing the Jays "want to do something big."

But can they make the money work? It seems iffy. At $205 million, the Blue Jays are already projected to spend just $11 million less in 2024 than they spent for all of 2023. Thanks a lot, arbitration.

The Cubs were one of seven finalists for Ohtani when he came over from Japan in 2017, but there was a problem: National League clubs didn't have the DH.

"It was pretty clear he wanted to do both [hitting and pitching], and DHing was the best option for that," Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at this year's GM Meetings, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.

This is no longer an issue in MLB's universal DH era, so it wasn't surprising when Rogers' article went on to say that the Cubs are "interested in courting" Ohtani all over again.

The fit works, both in the sense that the Cubs have an opening at DH and in that they have the pitching to survive in 2024 before Ohtani returns to the mound in 2025. Ohtani, meanwhile, should see a team on an upswing in context of the club's 83-win season and second-ranked farm system.

But how much are the Cubs willing to spend? Because unless the answer is somewhere well north of their club-record $203.1 million payroll from 2019, they would otherwise have to make room for Ohtani in their already crowded books.

The Giants are in on Ohtani, alright. Mentions of them are plastered all over his rumor round-up at MLB.com.

The most recent of those, however, is disconcerting. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, "some see" Oracle Park as a potential hurdle in the Giants' way in the Ohtani sweepstakes.

It is indeed one of the least friendly stadiums to left-handed sluggers. But there is another side to that coin, and it's that the righty-throwing Ohtani will be that much safer against left-handed batters if and when he returns to the mound as a Giant.

Otherwise, it's possible that the Giants simply won't be outbid on Ohtani. Logan Webb is the only player they have on a long-term contract, and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the Giants are prepared to "significantly overpay" for Ohtani.

Rather than their ballpark, the Giants should probably be more afraid of Ohtani doubting their contention timeline. They won 107 games just two years ago, sure, but they were more than just one great player short in a 79-win campaign this year. Also, their farm system is lacking.

Ohtani is unlike most of us in just about every way, but you and I have at least one thing in common with him: Love for Fenway Park.

He's spoken openly about how much he particularly digs pitching in Boston, and you can take it from ESPN's Jeff Passan that this wasn't mere hot air. He wrote that Ohtani "loves visiting Boston and has a fondness for Fenway Park."

It may not hurt the Red Sox's cause that Ohtani also has business connections in Boston, specifically with New Balance. He has an endorsement deal with the apparel company, which is headquartered in Boston.

As to how Ohtani fits with the Red Sox, probably the best argument for the pairing is that the team needs him for relevance purposes. Their standing in the AL East has been shaky for five years now, and the Fenway Faithful are clearly tuning out.

But even if the money is there—and it does seem to be—what the Red Sox need is immediate pitching help, not another left-handed hitter with no defensive value. And for his part, does Ohtani really want to join a team fresh off a third last-place finish in four years?

If winning is truly what matters most to Ohtani, he can't do any better than joining up with the reigning World Series champions.

The Rangers seemed to exist merely on the periphery of the Ohtani sweepstakes, but smoke about a potential union has been billowing. Passan's report, for example, states: "He appreciates the Texas Rangers—not just for their 2023 World Series victory but the fact that early in his career, when he was playing in Japan, they expressed strong interest in him."

The Rangers are already slated to surpass the club-record $195.9 million payroll with which they opened 2023, but that may not stop them from pushing the envelope even further.

"I expect the Rangers are going to be aggressive this offseason," Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic said Monday on Foul Territory. "They are going to be emboldened by their World Series triumph."

If so, well, why not? Designated hitter is the only spot in the lineup where the Rangers have a need. And while they're set for 2024, Max Scherzer's and Andrew Heaney's dates with free agency after the season will open space for Ohtani in the rotation.

The sun shines. The earth spins. And the Dodgers continue to be seen as the favorite for Ohtani.

As Heyman reported from the GM Meetings, that the Dodgers are the team to beat for Ohtani is a "consensus" stance that has to do with how "they cleared payroll space, they're consistent winners and may hold a geographic advantage."

There's no room to argue with any of the above. The Dodgers are by far baseball's winning-est team since 2013, and right now there's nearly a $100 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024.

Even though it needs help now, it's hardly worth worrying about how Ohtani would have to wait until 2025 to help the Dodgers' starting rotation. They could sign other guys to cover for him on the mound. All he would have to do in '24 is mash baseballs along with fellow MVPs Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.

If anything, it would be fascinating to hear what went wrong if the Dodgers don't sign Ohtani. But since there's no good reason why they shouldn't, that's a thing that nobody should believe will happen until it actually does.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.