Top 10 Landing Spots for Cubs' Marcus Stroman in MLB Free Agency

In a somewhat unexpected turn of fate, Marcus Stroman chose to become a free agent again when he opted out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs on Nov. 6.

The 32-year-old left $21 million on the table in doing so, which indicates that he and his representatives think he's worth more than that on the open market. This is almost certainly true, even if said market is still saturated with starting pitchers after Aaron Nola's return to the Philadelphia Phillies.

But what, precisely, is Stroman worth in free agency? And where does he fit best?

These questions deserve in-depth answers, so let's take our time in assessing Stroman's value and speculating on his 10 best prospective suitors.

It wasn't all good, but the Cubs mostly got their money's worth out of Stroman after signing him to a three-year, $71 million deal back in Dec. 2021.

Injuries limited him to 52 appearances and 275.1 innings in 2022 and 2023, but he pitched well when he was able to get on the mound. He posted a 3.73 ERA, with a 116 ERA+ that denoted him as being 16 percent better than the average pitcher.

Yet to quote Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it is fresh off a "tale of two seasons" that Stroman is once again a free agent.

He might have been the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award early on, as his first 16 outings saw him rack up a 2.28 ERA. But then he posted a 9.00 ERA over his next seven starts, followed by a six-week stint on the injured list with a rib cage cartilage fracture.

Yet it is some comfort that it wasn't the 5'7", 180-pounder's arm or shoulder that landed him on the IL. There's further comfort in that he mostly did his usual thing on the mound this year, such as rack up ground balls while posting a more or less standard 3.58 FIP.

Per MLB Trade Rumors (two years, $44 million) and FanGraphs (three years, $66 million), a multi-year deal worth upwards of $20 million per year could be out there for Stroman. With Nola having beaten expectations with his seven-year, $172 million deal, the latter projection might even be the better bet.

There aren't many teams that can't do that kind of deal, but the thinking here is that Stroman fits best on contenders who can offer him a shot at his first World Series ring. And, more specifically, ones with infield defenses capable of accommodating his ground-ball style.

Note: All starting pitching WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference, with all 2024 rotation projections courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

Chicago Cubs

Though there's still technically room for Stroman in Chicago's rotation, Bob Nightengale of USA Today has reported the team doesn't "have any intention" of bringing him back.

New York Mets

Do the Mets need starting pitching? You bet. But even if Billy Eppler is no longer with the organization, Stroman's past shots at him and his openness about the racism and death threats he experienced while playing in New York wouldn't seem to bode well for a reunion.

New York Yankees

The other team in New York (a weird way to refer to the Yankees, I know) may not be any more likely for Stroman, in part because he's no more a fan of Brian Cashman than he is of Eppler.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays were reportedly interested in reuniting with Stroman via a trade during the summer, but every indication is that bats are the team's top priority for the winter.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 7.8 (21st)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Hunter Brown, RHP J.P. France

If the Astros set their sights on Stroman this winter, it wouldn't be for the first time.

They were reportedly interested in trading for him over the summer before the Cubs decided to go for it and took him and Cody Bellinger off the market. If nothing else, it's a window to an interesting "What if?" on account of how a Stroman trade might have precluded Houston's eventual reunion with Verlander.

In the here and now, Stroman and the Astros remain a solid on-paper fit for one another. They could use insurance behind Verlander and Valdez, and the chances of Stroman ultimately pitching in October for the first time since 2016 would be high indeed.

But can the Astros afford him? It seems dubious. The club spent $201 million on its payroll in 2023, yet is already projected to sink $217 million into next year's payroll.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Bryan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

Don't let the fact that Red Sox starters finished in the top 10 for rWAR trick you into thinking their rotation isn't badly in need of help.

It ranked 22nd in the league with a 4.68 ERA and even lower with an average of 4.8 innings per start. Stroman represents an obvious upgrade for such a unit, and the Red Sox also have more specific reasons to target him.

For one, his experience pitching in the American League East from 2014 through 2019. For two, his potential to be a mentor for Bello. The young righty has a vaguely Stroman-like profile in that he's a sinker-first pitcher who prioritizes ground balls.

Where this fit begins to break down is with the reality that the Red Sox need a No. 1 more than they need a mid-rotation type like Stroman. Further, Outs Above Average rated Boston's infield defense as the worst in MLB this season.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 5.0 (26th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Hunter Greene, LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Graham Ashcraft, LHP Brandon Williamson, LHP Nick Lodolo

The Reds hung in this year's playoff race despite their starting rotation, which posted a 5.43 ERA to rank 28th out of 30 teams.

The weird thing, though, is how many incumbent Reds starters have top-of-the-rotation upside. Abbott flashed that kind of potential for much of his rookie season, and Greene occasionally looks unhittable with his triple-digit fastball and wipeout slider.

A stable veteran like Stroman might be all the Reds need to round out their rotation. And if they're willing to go back into the $60 million range like they did with Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos a few years ago, he could be within the club's price range.

Of course, "could" is the operative word there. And even if the Reds do express interest in Stroman, he could rightfully balk at their poor infield defense and at Great American Ball Park's notorious hitter-friendly dimensions.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (13th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

The Orioles' rotation finished 2023 stronger than it started it, posting a 3.75 ERA in the second half that ranked within the top five of the league.

All the same, Jake Rill of MLB.com reported on Nov. 8 that the Orioles would like to add a starter who could slot in next to Bradish and Rodriguez at the top end of their rotation. Which, of course, is where the Kyle Gibson resided before he departed for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Could Stroman match the 192 innings that Gibson gave the O's in 2023? That seems like a reach, but the likely tradeoff would be a steadier supply of quality innings. Gibson's 4.73 ERA this year was significantly higher than even the 3.95 ERA that Stroman finished with.

As for whether the Orioles can shell out the necessary money for Stroman, their spending history (yes) and recent history (no) offer conflicting messages. And while Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a better place to pitch than it used to be, Baltimore's infield defense is a relative weakness.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 4.1 (28th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Miles Mikolas, RHP Kyle Gibson, RHP Lance Lynn, LHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Thompson

Even after their deals with Gibson and Lance Lynn, more additions may be coming for the Cardinals' rotation.

"We think [this] is a very good first step," John Mozeliak, the club's president of baseball operations, told reporters on Tuesday. "This is not the finish line. This is a day in time. There is still a lot of work to be done."

Which is good, because the Cardinals still need another arm even with Gibson and Lynn aboard. They could do a lot worse than Stroman to this end. The familiarity with the NL Central is obviously there, and he'd have one of the league's best infields behind him.

However, whether the Cardinals are a true contender after a last-place finish in 2023 is dubious. And since Gibson and Lynn filled their needs for mid-rotation types, what they really need now is a No. 1-type starter. Not so much a Stroman as, say, a Blake Snell or a Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

The Dodgers' rotation was unusually thin in 2023, and now it looks even more threadbare heading into 2024.

What's for sure is that Stroman can't do any better than the Dodgers if his primary goal is to pitch in the playoffs. They're on a run of 11 straight postseason appearances since 2013, a span in which they've also won 91 more regular season games than any team.

True, the Dodgers are in like the Cardinals in that what they really need is an ace. But there's no reason they can't have both Stroman and one of those. As of now, the gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024 is $94 million wide.

That gap will shrink quite a bit, though, if the Dodgers accomplish their reported goal of signing both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. And if there's another catch here, it's that the club's infield defense is less than worthy of a ground-ball artist like Stroman.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Pedro Avila, LHP Jay Groome

The Padres got excellent starting pitching in 2023, but that was with NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell alongside Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.

All three are now free agents, which is to say nothing of the durability concerns among San Diego's incumbent starters. Notably, Musgrove (shoulder) and Darvish (elbow) had their seasons end early because of injuries.

The Padres would therefore do well to have their eyes on Stroman, who could potentially be more than just insurance behind Musgrove and Darvish. Per its 22 Outs Above Average, he'd have one of the best infield defenses in MLB behind him if he ended up with the Padres.

For now, though, the money equation looks like a hard one to balance. The Padres reportedly want to cut their payroll down to the $200 million range, and their current projections come out to $189 million. They might have to make cuts before they can target Stroman.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP Huascar Ynoa

It was on Nov. 13 that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Atlanta was willing to pay for an impact starter, and that Nola was the "most intriguing fit."

Now that he's off the board, how about Stroman?

It's a suboptimal fit where the club's infield defense is concerned, but it works at least in the sense that Atlanta wouldn't need Stroman to be its ace. Simply by slotting into the middle of its rotation, he could have a big hand in ensuring a sixth straight NL East title and potentially a third straight 100-win season.

Like with the Padres, however, the money question looms large. Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos did promise an increased payroll in 2024, but by how much is a mystery. As it is, Atlanta is already slated to spend more next season ($207 million) than it did for all of this season ($205 million).

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 7.1 (22nd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Brandon Pfaadt, RHP Ryne Nelson, LHP Tommy Henry

Now that the Diamondbacks have addressed their huge need at third base by trading for Eugenio Suárez, a move for a starter to bolster the top of their rotation should be in order.

To this end, Stroman might be within Arizona's budgetary reach. Though the club's projected 2024 expenses are only $10 million below what it spent in 2023, managing general partner Ken Kendrick has hinted that a higher payroll will follow in the wake of this year's surprise run to the World Series.

As to how the fit here works on the field, well, it's about as good as it gets. Stroman could slot comfortably in between Gallen and Kelly and could then look to benefit from one of the league's best infields. Only three others racked up more Outs Above Average in 2023.

The only catch, really, is that one of those three teams is also a prospective fit for Stroman.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

Despite its solid placement for rWAR, this was a difficult season for the Giants' rotation.

The only sure thing from start to finish was Webb, who racked up a 3.25 ERA over an MLB-high 216 innings to finish second in the NL Cy Young Award voting. His league-high 62.1 ground-ball percentage worked wonderfully in tandem with an infield that co-led the majors in Outs Above Average.

All this plus the fact that Webb is one of Stroman's favorite pitchers should be enough to convince the Giants to reach out to him. And with a $48 million gap between their 2023 ($196 million) and projected 2024 ($148 million) payrolls, the money should be there.

True, that whole gap could get wiped out if the Giants succeed in their pursuit of Ohtani. But even then, they would still need a starter who could help right away in 2024, and Stroman would be worth stretching the budget for.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.