Top 10 Landing Spots for Rangers' Jordan Montgomery in MLB Free Agency

After earning his first World Series ring in October, it shouldn't be much longer before Jordan Montgomery signs his name on a contract that could eclipse nine figures in value.

The left-hander, who'll turn 31 on Dec. 27, is a free agent for the first time and is widely considered to be one of the top starting pitchers in a market that's flush with options even after the signings of Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote in October that most of the teams he's talked to had Montgomery ranked ahead of even Blake Snell. High praise, considering Snell just became only the seventh pitcher to win a Cy Young Award in both leagues.

As to what Montgomery is worth and where he fits best, both questions deserve in-depth answers.

The turning point in Montgomery's seven-year career happened on Aug. 2, 2022.

That was the day when the New York Yankees traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals in a one-for-one swap for center fielder Harrison Bader.

Montgomery had a solid 3.69 ERA at the time, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman insinuated that he didn't foresee the southpaw in the club's eventual playoff rotation.

Well, Montgomery has only been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball ever since.

His last 43 starts have yielded a 3.17 ERA and enough RA-9 WAR to rank among the top six qualified pitchers. He was also money for the Rangers during their championship run, making six appearances and pitching to a 2.90 ERA.

If one is so inclined, one can ding Montgomery for having had Tommy John surgery and not really standing out as anything more than a control merchant. But there's no arguing with his results or workload, as pitchers who are generally good for six innings per start are increasingly rare.

Factoring in that Montgomery was ineligible for a qualifying offer and is not tied to draft-pick compensation, his earning power would seem to be strong indeed. For instance, MLB Trade Rumors had him projected for a six-year, $150 million deal before Nola beat that same projection by re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies for $172 million over seven years.

Not every pitching pitching-needy team in MLB has that kind of money to throw around, but it's nonetheless easy to speculate on potential suitors for Montgomery. After first touching on some honorable mentions, we'll rank 10 based on just how well the fit works.

Note: All starting pitching WAR is courtesy of Baseball Reference, with 2024 projected starting rotations courtesy of RosterResource via FanGraphs.

Cincinnati Reds

Reds starters ranked 28th with a 5.43 ERA this season, so nobody can dispute that their rotation could use Montgomery. But since the club has never exceeded even $64 million for a free agent, he's likely out of its price range.

Los Angeles Angels

Starting pitching is just one of many needs the Angels must attend to this winter, and they seem to have the money to make big moves. But with both their major league roster and farm system in bad shape, they're not the most attractive destination for free agents.

St. Louis Cardinals

According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Cardinals have been in contact with Montgomery about a possible reunion. But with Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and now Gray aboard, what was a threadbare rotation now looks full.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (13th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

Starting pitching gradually morphed from a weakness into a strength for the Orioles throughout 2023, to a point where their starters ranked fifth in ERA for the second half.

Yet when Gibson signed with the Cardinals, the Orioles officially lost their leading workhorse from this season. While even this winter's market doesn't offer many guys who would figure to replace his 192 innings, Montgomery is surely one of them.

The Orioles are otherwise a team on the rise after leading the American League with 101 wins, and Oriole Park at Camden Yards happens to cater to left-handers like Montgomery. Suffice it to say, it's been unkind to right-handed batters since the left field wall got moved back in 2022.

But do the O's have the budget for Montgomery? They should after so many years of pinching pennies, but all that naturally raises doubts about whether ownership will cut big checks for general manager Mike Elias.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Matt Waldron, RHP Pedro Avila, LHP Jay Groome

Though it was Snell who got most of the headlines en route to winning the National League Cy Young Award, he, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo combined to give the Padres a 2.95 ERA over 460.2 innings this season.

It's therefore suboptimal for San Diego that all three are free agents. There's also uncertainty among the club's incumbents, including Musgrove and Darvish after shoulder and elbow injuries, respectively, resulted in their seasons ending early.

If the best-case scenario for the Padres involves re-signing Snell, replacing him with Montgomery might be the next-best-case scenario. His upside doesn't go as high as Snell's, but he's a better bet for a consistent innings and his price tag should be cheaper.

Alas, whether the Padres can afford any price tag right now is questionable. Their plan is to shrink their payroll to about $200 million, which hypothetically leaves only $11 million for new salaries. At least, that is, until they trade Juan Soto.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi, RHP José Butto

Though the club's starting pitching was surprisingly good following the trades of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, the Mets aren't about to leave good enough alone.

"I don't think that it's any secret that we are probably a little short on pitching at the moment," David Stearns, the club's newly hired president of baseball operations, told reporters during the GM Meetings.

To this end, Montgomery would slot in nicely on either side of Senga in the club's rotation. And with an $83 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024, the Mets would seem to have the budget for Montgomery.

But is the timing right? Perhaps not. The Mets' contention window may not be fully closed after their 87-loss season, but it's not fully open either. Rather than a 30-something starter, there would be more sense in them playing more of a long game by signing 25-year-old right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

This is where we start getting into non-speculative fits for Montgomery, as it's out there that the Red Sox have already spoken to his agent:

This may not have been the Red Sox merely doing their due diligence. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote earlier this month about how they're among the teams "targeting a front-of-the-rotation type" this winter.

Montgomery is certainly that, and his ability to eat innings should appeal to the Red Sox as much as anything else. Their starters averaged only 4.8 innings per start in 2023, a figure that only three teams ultimately came under.

But while Boston should have the money for Montgomery, he can do better than a team that's finished in last place in three out of the past four seasons if winning is one of his top priorities. He might also want to be wary of how Fenway Park favors right-handed hitters.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 7.1 (22nd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Brandon Pfaadt, RHP Ryne Nelson, LHP Tommy Henry

If you can't beat 'em, sign 'em. Isn't that what they say?

Not really, but that would be the case if the National League champion Diamondbacks were to sign Montgomery away from the Rangers. And if nothing else, they're the team with the stronger need for him.

Gallen and Kelly are a strong duo and Pfaadt showed real potential in the playoffs, posting a 3.27 ERA in five starts. Yet the D-backs' rotation is otherwise lacking in stability. And with their need at third base taken care of, it's high time they did something about it.

Harder to determine is whether they would splurge for Montgomery. Though managing general partner Ken Kendrick has hinted at an increased payroll for 2024, neither of the big-money deals the club has done with starters in recent years (i.e., $206.5 million for Zack Greinke and $85 million for Madison Bumgarner) yielded the results they were hoping for.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.8 (15th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP MIchael King, RHP Clarke Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes

One would think that the Yankees and Montgomery would be an awkward fit after what happened in 2022, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

They have reached out to Montgomery, according to Heyman, who had also previously reported that the lefty is "believed to prefer" returning to any of his three former teams.

It doesn't take a microscope to see how Montgomery would fit with the Yankees' current squad. It's perhaps too early for anyone to give up on Rodón, but he simply wasn't the No. 2 the club was hoping he'd be behind American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole this year.

This being said, another starter looks less like a need and much more like a want for the Yankees. What they really need is help for an offense that ranked 11th in the AL in scoring this year. More accurately, bats of the left-handed variety.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.7 (3rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Jon Gray, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Andrew Heaney

In addition to the Yankees, Heyman's reporting likewise characterizes a reunion between Montgomery and the Rangers as a mutual interest situation.

Heck, why wouldn't it be? Montgomery and the Rangers know full well what they can do when they join forces. The club is also nothing if not comfortable investing in free agents, as it's indeed largely because of its aggressive spending that it's the champion.

As for whether the Rangers really need Montgomery, there's perhaps an argument in favor of the negative. But as strong as their rotation looks on paper, there's little certainty with Gray, Dunning and Heaney. Plus, Eovaldi (34) and Scherzer (40) won't get any younger in 2024.

But if it's a question of where the Rangers' biggest need resides, suffice it to say they need an ace reliever more than they need a starter. There's also the question of whether their books need another big contract for a 30-something starting pitcher.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP Huascar Ynoa

Atlanta's starting pitching utterly deteriorated in the second half of this season, posting a 5.10 ERA that tied with the Reds for 24th in the league.

So, it's not surprising that the club made a strong bid to sign Nola before the Phillies locked him up. According to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Atlanta's starting offer to the righty was six years, $162 million.

That may not have been enough for Nola, but it's conceivably enough for Montgomery. Signing him would make Atlanta's rotation perhaps the deepest in either league, as Elder would be its No. 5 starter even though he was an All-Star this season.

It may matter, though, that Atlanta's offer to Nola went out before it signed Reynaldo López to a three-year, $30 million contract. As the six-time defending NL East champs are now projected to spend more in 2024 than they did in 2023, whether they still have the budget for a top-flight starter is perhaps not something to take for granted.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

Though Atlanta made a strong offer to Nola before he re-signed with the Phillies, Lauber's report also mentioned that it had competition in the form of the Dodgers.

L.A. "put a finger on the scale at $165 [million]" for Nola, according to Lauber. It's not clear how many years were in the offer, but there's no question the Dodgers have a big budget for the winter. They're projected to spend $85 million less in 2024 than they did in 2023.

Per Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times, Montgomery had been a trade target for the Dodgers within the last year. They have nothing to lose by targeting him again, as their rotation was only good for a 4.57 ERA and 4.9 innings per start even with Clayton Kershaw and Lynn in the mix this year.

But as much as the Dodgers are an obvious fit for Montgomery on paper, it makes sense that they haven't been linked to him in any appreciable way this winter. Their focus seems to be on bigger fish, including Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

If nothing else, the Giants are a fit for Montgomery because they may be more desperate than anyone else to make a splash in free agency.

Bowden hears that the Giants are "all-in" on the open market, to a point where they "appear prepared to spend significant dollars on multiple star-level players." They've been linked to Ohtani (here) and Cody Bellinger (here), but it's possible that Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly nature will hurt them in talks for them or any other slugger.

By contrast, that same nature figures to be an advantage in talks with pitchers. And Montgomery darn well should be on their wish list. He'd give them the stability they need behind Webb while they await Alex Cobb's return from hip surgery.

That the Giants have only been a .500-ish team over the past two years could be a deal-breaker. But since they have good young talent coming up and a great manager in Bob Melvin, they could resemble the Rangers if they make good on their plans for free agency.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.