College Football Playoff Projections: Week 14 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

As four undefeated and four one-loss teams remain in the hunt for the College Football Playoff, the release of the 2023 bowl schedule is right around the corner.

When the final buzzer sounded on the regular season, 79 teams had tallied the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility. To fill out the postseason slate, there must be 82 teams.

And that means celebration for a pair of young FBS programs.

Due to (silly) NCAA transition rules, James Madison (11-1) and Jacksonville State (8-4) are not automatically eligible for a bowl. However, they'll be the first alternatives ahead of Minnesota (5-7), which has the highest Academic Progress Rate among five-win teams.

Army and Navy, for the record, will be left out despite the winner of their upcoming clash landing a sixth win. The programs must be eligible before the season-ending game to receive a bowl invite.

Updated bowl predictions follow the latest CFP rankings.

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Washington
4. Florida State
5. Oregon
6. Ohio State
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Missouri
10. Penn State
11. Ole Miss
12. Oklahoma
13. LSU
14. Louisville
15. Arizona
16. Iowa
17. Notre Dame
18. Oklahoma State
19. North Carolina State
20. Oregon State
21. Tennessee
22. Tulane
23. Clemson
24. Liberty
25. Kansas State

Myrtle Beach (Dec. 16): Northern Illinois vs. Georgia State
New Orleans (Dec. 16): New Mexico State vs. Appalachian State
Cure (Dec. 16): Jacksonville State vs. Marshall
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Air Force vs. Louisiana
Famous Toastery (Dec. 18): Western Kentucky vs. Eastern Michigan
Frisco (Dec. 19): Old Dominion vs. Texas State
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): San Jose State vs. Georgia Southern
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): James Madison vs. South Florida
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Liberty vs. Troy
Camellia (Dec. 23): Bowling Green vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Ohio vs. Utah State
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Wyoming vs. Arkansas State
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): Rice vs. Fresno State
Arizona (Dec. 30): Miami (OH) vs. Boise State

Stock Up: Marshall Thundering Herd

Thank you, home games. Marshall picked up a 35-21 win over Arkansas State last weekend to land a sixth victory. Most notably, the Thundering Herd improved to 5-1 in Huntington and 1-5 on the road. Too bad there's no bowl game played in West Virginia?

Stock Up: Old Dominion Monarchs

The sixth win took a last-play touchdown, but Old Dominion made it happen. Grant Wilson scampered for a three-yard score as time expired to give the Monarchs a memorable, dramatic 25-24 win over Georgia State. ODU is bowling for the second time in Ricky Rahne's three seasons as head coach.

LA (Dec. 16): UNLV vs. UCLA
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Toledo vs. Minnesota
First Responder (Dec. 26): Coastal Carolina vs. UCF
Military (Dec. 27): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Fenway (Dec. 28): UTSA vs. Boston College
Liberty (Dec. 29): SMU vs. Iowa State

Stock Up: Minnesota Golden Gophers

And there's the roller coaster I mentioned last week. Minnesota fell to rival Wisconsin, dropping its fourth straight game after an encouraging 5-3 start. However, the Gophers' high APR ranking has bailed them out and secured an invite to the postseason.

Stock Down: UCLA Bruins

Will the Bruins stay locally for the LA Bowl, or will a trip to LA—you know, Louisiana—be in store? UCLA dropped its regular-season finale to Cal, which needed a victory to secure a sixth win. Both teams closed the campaign with a 4-5 record in conference play.

Independence (Dec. 16): Texas Tech vs. Cal
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): Syracuse vs. Kansas
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Maryland vs. Utah
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Northwestern vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): Clemson vs. Oregon State
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas State vs. Texas A&M

Stock Up: Syracuse Orange

After firing longtime coach Dino Babers last week, Syracuse needed a win to reach bowl eligibility. Dual-threat quarterback Garrett Schrader tossed three touchdowns and ran for a fourth, guiding the Orange to a valuable 35-31 victory over Wake Forest.

Stock Please Let This Game Happen: Holiday Bowl

Truly, it's not intentional. This is simply a function of North Carolina State and Notre Dame being key choices for the Pop-Tarts and ReliaQuest Bowls, along with North Carolina playing in the Holiday Bowl last year. That leaves Clemson as the ACC's most attractive team. On the other side, Oregon State is a clear top Pac-12 option after Washington, Oregon and Arizona. The result? A chance for OSU quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to take down his former team.

Pinstripe (Dec. 28): Miami vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Oklahoma State
Alamo (Dec. 28): Oklahoma vs. Arizona
Gator (Dec. 29): North Carolina vs. Tennessee
Sun (Dec. 29): Duke vs. USC
Music City (Dec. 30): Wisconsin vs. Auburn
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Notre Dame vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Iowa vs. Ole Miss

Stock Up: North Carolina State Wolfpack

In the 118-year history of the program, NC State has reached double-digit wins in just one season (11 in 2002). Two years ago, the Pack would've had a chance to get to 10—but UCLA pulled out of the Holiday Bowl due to COVID-19 protocols. Bowl season could be a very impactful moment for this nine-win NC State team.

Stock Down: Duke Blue Devils

Duke, however, is reeling. During the second half of the regular season, the Blue Devils went 2-4 while quarterback Riley Leonard dealt with nagging injuries. Head coach Mike Elko recently left for Texas A&M, where he previously served as the defensive coordinator. After a mostly fantastic September, Duke has endured a disappointing two months.

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Texas vs. Missouri
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Alabama vs. Tulane
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Penn State vs. Washington

Top Matchup This Weekend: Pac-12 Championship Game

The winner of the Pac-12 clash between Oregon and Washington heads to the College Football Playoff. The loser is probably going to the Fiesta Bowl. Straightforward, but worth mentioning.

Key Matchup This Weekend: AAC Championship Game

Tulane could lock in a second New Year's Six bowl bid with a victory over SMU. The more complicated result is if SMU beats Tulane in the AAC title game. Would the selection committee leap 11-2 SMU past 13-0 Liberty even if the Flames beat New Mexico State for the Conference USA crown?

Swing Matchup This Weekend: SEC Championship Game

Meanwhile, the Orange Bowl will feature Louisville (very likely, at least) against the highest-ranked team from the Big Ten or SEC. If Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, it should be Ohio State. But if Bama wins and UGA falls out of the Top Four, OSU is bumped for Georgia—which legitimately could affect each of the other NY6 matchups. Want chaos? Root for Nick Saban's team.

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Florida State (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Oregon (4)

National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan

Florida State fans, I understand if you're concerned about Texas winning the Big 12 and leaping FSU in the final CFP rankings. I also believe an undefeated power-conference team is a lock.

But that leads to a very interesting question, too.

Let's say Oregon beats Washington, as I'm predicting here. Would the committee actually put Oregon over FSU and leave out Texas? I wouldn't be surprised at the group saying Oregon is a "superior" team—despite never ranking it ahead of FSU—and overlooking the Ducks' earlier loss to Washington. Meanwhile, Texas narrowly misses at 12-1.

Cynical? You bet!

Washington, though, can render this discussion useless with a second win over Oregon and lock in the No. 3 seed.