SP Shōta Imanaga's Top 10 Landing Spots in MLB Free Agency

Think Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the only pitcher coming from Japan in search of a nine-figure contract in Major League Baseball this winter? Think again.

There's also Shōta Imanaga.

Though he's nowhere near as hyped as his right-handed teammate from this year's World Baseball Classic, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on Dec. 1 that the left-handed Imanaga has a strong enough market to possibly command as much as a $100 million contract.

As for who this guy is, why his value is that high and where he might fit in MLB, all these questions deserve deeper dives.

Whatever Imanaga's contract ends up being, the actual cost of signing him will be greater because of the posting fee his new team will have to pay to the Yokohama Bay Stars.

A $100 million deal with Imanaga, then, would actually cost closer to $120 million. Not a record sum by any means, but substantially more than investments teams have made in even proven starters like Eduardo Rodriguez ($80 million) and Sonny Gray ($75 million) this winter.

Is the 30-year-old Imanaga really worth that much fuss?

From looking at his accomplishments in Japan, the answer seems to be yes. He ended his eight-year run in Nippon Professional Baseball with a 3.18 ERA, and he's coming to MLB fresh off a 2023 season that saw him post a 2.66 ERA with 7.8 times as many strikeouts as walks.

Preceding this campaign was a turn in the World Baseball Classic in which Imanaga struck out seven batters against zero walks in six innings, flashing truly nasty stuff in the process:

This is not to say there are no concerns. Imanaga will have adjustments to make, including to MLB's grueling schedule and travel. And though his fastball does have characteristics that allow it to play up despite its low-90s velocity, Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions broke down how the lefty might be too reliant on it and that it's prone to the long ball.

For their part, MLB Trade Rumors reported that Imanaga is thought of as a No. 3 or No. 4 pitcher. A nine-figure deal for a pitcher like that sounds steep, but it's not as if the team that gambles on him will be betting on upside that isn't there.

So, after first touching on some honorable mentions, let's get to speculating on and ranking 10 suitors that make the most sense for Imanaga.

Note: All wins above replacement courtesy of Baseball Reference, with projected 2024 starting rotations courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks entered the winter needing a No. 3 starter to slot behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but they seem to have found him by signing Rodriguez.

Atlanta

Atlanta has been linked to all sorts of high-profile starters in free agency, but their present focus seems to be on the trade market. Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow are just two options out there for them.

Baltimore Orioles

Though Imanaga would fit well behind Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles haven't been much for spending in recent years. That's likely to continue at least until the team is sold.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds may or may not have been a finalist for Rodriguez before he signed with Arizona. Either way, it's hard to imagine them pivoting to Imanaga while their payroll seems maxed out.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.9 (18th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Reid Detmers, RHP Griffin Canning, LHP Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, RHP Chase Silseth

Not that things were especially great with him, but things are looking grim for the Angels' starting rotation sans Shohei Ohtani.

This would explain why, as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported on Nov. 29, the Halos are "very interested" in two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. And with a $58 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024, they can afford him.

Should the Angels fail to reel in or simply pivot from Snell, Imanaga will be another left-hander for them to consider alongside erstwhile Texas Rangers hero Jordan Montgomery. And it figures that if the Angels were to promise Imanaga as much autonomy as they gave Ohtani, they may well find the interest is mutual.

But even setting aside the question of whether it needs another lefty, there's still the question of whether another mid-rotation arm is the right thing for their rotation. And if Imanaga wants to win, he can do a lot better than a team with as uncertain of a future as the one the Angels have.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.7 (3rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, RHP Max Scherzer, RHP Jon Gray, RHP Dane Dunning, LHP Andrew Heaney

Let's conclude our brief tour around the AL West with the Rangers, who, unlike the Angels, are known to have scouted Imanaga:

This happened at a time when Montgomery was a central part of Texas' rotation after coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals, and he indeed only became more of a central part as he was racking up a 2.90 ERA during their World Series run.

Well, now Montgomery is a free agent. Signing Imanaga in lieu of re-signing Montgomery would likely have the benefit of being cheaper for the Rangers, with an additional downstream benefit of pushing Heaney into a swingman role that could fit him well.

But rather than reinforcing an area that's already a strength, the Rangers would be better served making a big bet on a much-needed late-inning reliever. Josh Hader, for example, would fit them like a glove on a nine-figure deal.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.0 (17th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP José Berríos, RHP Chris Bassitt, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Alek Manoah

Starting pitching wasn't a problem for the Blue Jays in 2023. Though Gausman got most of the headlines as a Cy Young Award finalist, the whole rotation ranked third with a 3.85 ERA.

Yet it doesn't seem as if the Blue Jays are willing to leave good enough alone. They're among the finalists for Yamamoto, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic. If they whiff on him, well, they're another team that scouted Imanaga in September.

A deal with Imanaga would likely crowd Manoah, who was an All-Star and Cy Young finalist in his own right in 2022, out of Toronto's rotation. But maybe that would be the whole idea. Manoah had a lost season in 2023 that somehow kept going from bad to worse, and he's reportedly been on the trading block this winter.

Yet next to Yamamoto, signing Imanaga should be a Plan B for the Blue Jays. Maybe even at best, as what they really want are position players and are said to also be in on Bellinger.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.0 (20th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Kyle Hendricks, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad

With Marcus Stroman having opted out and the Cubs apparently ready to move on from him, it's likely just a matter of time before a new arm joins their rotation.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the Cubs to be in on both Yamamoto and Imanaga in November, but they seem to be out on the former now. Per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Cubs are "not expected" to even bid on the righty.

That leaves Imanaga, and imagining him on the Cubs doesn't take much, well, imagination. The book on his fastball reads like the book on Steele's fastball, which will do for a sign that the Cubs will know how to translate Imanaga's pitching style into success in the majors.

The catch is that another starter feels like more of a want than a need for the Cubs. What they really need is another hitter, as they only ranked in the middle of the pack for home runs in 2023 even with the 26 they got from Bellinger.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

If one of Imanaga's priorities is making sure his home run problem doesn't follow him to the States, he can't do any better than signing with the Giants.

Oracle Park hasn't been the biggest home run suppressor in the majors for the last three years, but the only three teams below it on the list probably won't be in the bidding for Imanaga: the Oakland Athletics, Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers.

For their part, the Giants are still another team that's known to have scouted Imanaga. That was back in September, and their need for him in their rotation has only grown stronger since Alex Cobb had hip surgery in October. He'll be sidelined to start 2024.

Even more so than the Cubs, it's true that what the Giants really need is more offense for an offense that ranked 14th out of 15 National League teams in scoring this year. Precisely because of Oracle Park, though, the Giants may not have much choice but to fall back on fortifying their rotation if free agent hitters rebuff their advances.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.3 (5th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Yu Darvish, RHP Michael King, RHP Randy Vásquez, RHP Matt Waldron

The Padres have already made their biggest move of the winter, though it was a bummer for them. Suffice it to say it's hard to lose guys like Juan Soto and Trent Grisham.

What's more, San Diego's rotation still needs help even with King and Vásquez. They're talented, but they alone can't make up for the 2.95 ERA and 460.2 innings that the Padres got from Snell, Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo this season.

On the plus side, the Padres now have that much more payroll space for a big signing. And it wouldn't be a surprise if they used it on Imanaga. They're known to have scouted him, and it may help that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has a history with Japan and, obviously, that Darvish is from there.

The only question I'm left with is whether the Padres would be better served spreading their money around. They'd do well to add at least two more starters, as well as at least one late-inning reliever. The more they drop on Imanaga, the less they'll have to fill those needs.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

Like the Padres, the Red Sox find themselves down a left-handed-hitting outfielder after trading Alex Verdugo. Unlike the Padres, though, they didn't net immediate help for their rotation in doing so.

Yamamoto remains the biggest possible prize in this respect, but Imanaga may be more than just a garden variety Plan B for Boston. According to Sean McAdam of Mass Live, the Red Sox have "heavily scouted" the southpaw.

Though he may only be a mid-rotation starter in the abstract, he'd arguably be a No. 1 in Boston. Sale just isn't that guy anymore, while Bello is coming off a crash landing at the end of 2024 and Pivetta, Crawford and Houck are more swingman types in theory.

But even if this is a reason for the Red Sox to stay in on Imanaga, what they should be doing is pursuing an actual No. 1 to slot atop their rotation. If not Yamamoto, Snell or Montgomery would likely play that role better than Imanaga.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

If there's a perfect-world scenario for the Dodgers' offseason, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested that it involves signing both Ohtani and Yamamoto.

So far, so good. But with Ohtani having come aboard on a $700 million contract, spending another $300 million or so on Yamamoto might be a little steep even for the Dodgers. If so, they'll have to consider other options.

Though their interest level in him isn't publicly known, one would think that Imanaga would be among said options. He'd at least bring stability to a Dodgers' rotation that had shockingly little of it in 2023, including in the sense that innings from starters were hard to come by.

The fit would work better if the Dodgers first score Yamamoto to be their No. 1 starter. But even if they don't, hopes could be high for Imanaga in a Dodgers uniform. Despite what befell their rotation this season, there are good reasons the organization is known as MLB's foremost maximizer of pitchers.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 12.0 (6th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, LHP José Quintana, RHP Luis Severino, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi

David Stearns is all about adding pitching in his first winter as the Mets' president of baseball operations, so you can take it to the bank that he's not going to stop with Severino.

That the Mets are interested in Yamamoto is no secret at this point, but word is they're very interested in Imanaga as well:

The presence of Senga in the Mets' rotation—not to mention a face-to-face visit with Yamamoto—suggests that owner Steve Cohen is comfortable investing in Japanese pitching. And for his part, Senga has expressed a willingness to help recruiting efforts.

If they don't also sign Yamamoto, the Mets may be the only team that can offer Imanaga a No. 2 rotation slot in MLB's biggest market. That could be too tempting to pass up...unless, that is, the other team in New York makes him a similar offer.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.8 (15th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Clarke Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Clayton Beeter

The Yankees didn't necessarily need a starting pitcher as recently as a couple days ago, but that changed when they shipped King to San Diego as part of the Soto trade.

This is not to suggest this was a mistake, of course, but it's hard to deny that things look a little shakier after Cole. Let's just say there's pressure on Rodón to bounce back from his lost 2023 season, which is an iffy proposition in context of his age and injury history.

By all accounts, Yamamoto is the guy the Yankees really prefer to slot behind Cole. But should they miss out on him, well, Imanaga is another guy they know well from having scouted him.

Though the Mets probably have more money to throw at Imanaga than the Yankees do, the latter can hope to lure him by pointing to their big success story with a Japanese pitcher (hint: Masahiro Tanaka) and a championship window that would be that much more open if he added his star power to that of Soto, Cole and Aaron Judge.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.