Playing Matchmaker With MLB's Top 10 Free-Agent Starting Pitchers Still on the Market

This year's winter meetings were slow because almost everyone was waiting on the Shohei Ohtani decision.

The market could not really develop until the largest domino fell, which was Ohtani to the Los Angeles Dodgers and the largest contract in professional sports history.

Now, we await the MLB starting pitching market to do its thing. The class is deep. Not even mentioned here is the legend Clayton Kershaw, a free agent again, but this time recovering from shoulder surgery. He may wait until during the season until signing his next, and perhaps final, contract.

Atop this class is a Japanese protégé and a Cy Young winner of both leagues.

Let's play matchmaker with MLB's top free-agent starting pitchers still on the market.

The Diamondbacks have been openly pursuing rotation help to go along with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly since last season's trade deadline.

They ended up winning the NL pennant without Michael Lorenzen, but they were among the teams to discuss a possible trade with the Tigers, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

The 31-year-old would instantly turn a solid pitching staff into an above-average one. Arizona's starters ranked 14th in fWAR and 16th in FIP last season. They were 21st in ERA and 20th in strikeouts per nine innings.

Lorenzen ended up with the Philadelphia Phillies at the deadline, and his time there was forgettable. Well, outside of throwing a no-hitter. He posted a 5.51 ERA with a 13.6 strikeout percentage over 47.1 innings.

Before the trade, he was a mid-rotation starter for the Tigers and became a first-time All-Star with a 3.58 ERA over 18 starts.

That should be enough to get Lorenzen a three-year, $33 million deal with the D-backs.

Kansas City has been linked to a number of free-agent starters, and Flaherty is among them. The Royals' need for rotation help is clear.

Only four teams had a worse fWAR from its starting pitching. The strength of the team is its infield, but just about everywhere else could use improvement.

Flaherty, 28, is coming off his healthiest season since 2019, though his numbers are not exactly eye-popping. He posted a 4.99 ERA over 144.1 innings pitched in 27 starts for both the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles. The Royals are already adding Seth Lugo on a three-year, $45 million contract and reliever Chris Stratton on a two-year deal.

It still leaves them light in the rotation behind Brady Singer, Jordan Lyles and Cole Ragans.

If the Royals sign Flaherty, they are hoping for a pitcher closer to the 2019 version, when he posted a 2.75 ERA across 33 starts and finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. But even the lesser, more recent version of him would help a needy Kansas City rotation eat innings.

He's worth the three years, $40 million projected by MLB Trade Rumors.

Mike Clevinger was solid for the Chicago White Sox last season, though he is clearly a lesser version of his once-promising self.

The Angels needed to add at least one starting pitcher even before Shohei Ohtani chose to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ohtani would not have been able to pitch for them because of Tommy John surgery, but with him completely out of the picture, it's time they took a serious look at the rotation.

The Angels' projected starters leave a lot to be desired with Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth.

That reads like a group that could use Clevinger, who has a career 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The Angels' starters last season had the 12th highest ERA (4.47) and ninth highest WHIP (1.36).

Most projections have Clevinger's value around $13 million per year. He turns 33 this month, so a two- or three-year deal at that rate seems reasonable for a team that isn't looking to add one of the top-tier starters.

The Cincinnati Reds are in the market for a starting pitcher, whether it be through trade or free agency.

Michael Wacha is among the names mentioned in reports of their interest in a free-agent starter, but they have also checked on potentially trading for Guardians ace Shane Bieber, according to multiple media outlets.

Since the Reds are known to be frugal, a two-year, $36 million deal looks reasonable for Wacha in Cincinnati. The type of middle-of-the-rotation arm that doesn't break the bank but can be a steady veteran presence in a young rotation.

The Reds' starters had the third-highest ERA and fifth-highest WHIP last season. Only five teams' starters were worth less in fWAR. The need for upgrades is apparent.

Wacha, 32, has been solid and consistent over the past two seasons split between the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres. He improved from 2022 to 2023, lowering his ERA (3.22) and upping his strikeout total (124).

It's a cut below elite, but good enough to add support to youngsters such as Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo.

Lucas Giolito took a major, unexpected step back this past season, when he played for three different teams. It is difficult to get a great feel for his market after his most recent showing.

The 2019 All-Star posted a 4.88 ERA in 33 starts for the Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians. His record was 8-15, including a combined 2-9 with Los Angeles and Cleveland.

But the Mets are still interested, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. They must see potential in Giolito, who had three top-11 finishes in Cy Young voting from 2019 to 2021. If he can control the long ball, which has been an issue the past two seasons, his durability at age 29 is appealing.

To pay him $20 million per year over the next two or three seasons, as is projected for Giolito, the Mets are going to want him to return closer to the strikeout artist he had become in 2019 and 2020. He had over 32 percent strikeout rate both seasons, ranking in the top eight percent of baseball.

Giolito is a high-risk, high-reward signing that the Mets should be willing to roll the dice on without committing long-term, especially if they whiff on the top-of-market starters.

Widely considered the second-best starter from this class of free agents from Japan, Shōta Imanaga is going to get a sizable contract from someone in MLB.

The Cubs are among the teams interested.

Imanaga posted a 2.80 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in 22 starts this past season for the Yokohama Bay Stars. His calling card is his control of the strike zone, rarely walking batters with just 24 across 148 innings, compared to 174 strikeouts.

The Cubs are expected to lose Marcus Stroman in free agency, which in theory opens a spot in the rotation. But they were in need either way with not much to rely on past Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. Imanaga, 30, could immediately step in as their No. 2 starter.

Projections have him making anywhere between $17 million to $20 million annually over five years, which puts him in the $85-100 million range. It's so easy to picture, since the Cubs signed outfielder Seiya Suzuki to a five-year, $85 million deal just two offseasons ago.

Everyone knows after how last season played out, the Dodgers are not stopping with landing the biggest MLB free agent in decades.

Shohei Ohtani secures the designated hitter spot for the Dodgers, but he does not address their pitching needs until 2025 at the earliest. That's where Stroman steps in.

Maybe he's not the ace they are looking for, like Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But aside from Walker Buehler, L.A. does not have anyone projected in its rotation who would take a backseat to Stroman, who turns 33 on May 1.

The Dodgers' starting pitching regressed in large part due to injuries last season, ranking 21st in starting pitching fWAR.

Stroman posted a solid 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP for the Chicago Cubs in 2023. He is an obvious upgrade who should only cost L.A. a modest $22 million per year for 2-3 seasons.

Yes, that is modest once you commit $700 million to one player who uniquely structures the deal to allow for more team spending.

Call it a surprise that the Texas Rangers haven't already inked this deal. It's a situation that is unbroken and needs no fixing.

Montgomery to Texas turned out to be one of the most impactful trade-deadline moves last season, as he helped the Rangers to their first World Series title in franchise history.

With Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer returning at the top of the Rangers' rotation, re-signing Montgomery is not their most pressing need. That would be shoring up the leaky bullpen that relied on starters down the stretch to make up for their deficiencies.

Montgomery, who turns 31 this month, is such a great example of what starting pitching depth can do for a contender, especially considering the volatility of relievers. He is expected to command a deal around six years, $150 million, which should be worth it to the Rangers.

Scherzer turns 40 in July and has shown over the past two years how quickly the body breaks down. Jacob deGrom won't be back until August. They need the reliability of Montgomery.

Few teams can say they have taken as many big swings and missed at free agents as the San Francisco Giants over the last two cycles.

There was the flirtation with Aaron Judge, who grew up a Giants fan but was never leaving the New York Yankees. Then there was Carlos Correa before his deal was nixed due to the infamous medical issue from his physical.

Most recently, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said on a conference call earlier this month that they made an offer to Shohei Ohtani that was comparable to the rival Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Giants need to land a big fish, and reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell is right there for the taking. Most projections have him landing in Philadelphia, or Los Angeles with the Dodgers, or possibly out east with the Boston Red Sox.

The Giants have just as deep pockets as the other major-market teams, play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and the Bay Area offers a closer flight to Snell's hometown Seattle, where he proudly represents, but the MLB team does not appear to be in the market for him.

Seven years, $200 million is a fair price for a 31-year-old with a pair of Cy Youngs.

The baseball community is just waiting for this deal to be consummated. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, this is the most coveted Japanese pitcher to enter MLB in a long time.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has won three straight Sawamura Awards, which is Japan's equivalent to the Cy Young, three straight Pacific League MVP awards and is a three-time Triple Crown winner. No other player in the history of professional baseball has won three consecutive Triple Crowns.

Now 25, he made his NPB debut at barely 19 years old and hit the ground running. He is widely considered a phenom in the sport.

So, of course, the Yankees are optimistic about adding this potential game-changer to their rotation.

They already completed the blockbuster trade to acquire Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres, surrendering four pitchers in the deal, along with trading for Alex Verdugo from the Boston Red Sox to address their glaring outfield problems. Now it's the rotation.

The Yankees have Hideki Matsui, a special advisor to the team, helping recruit Yamamoto with his firsthand account of coming over from Japan and winning a World Series with the organization. Gerrit Cole is a recent example of their willingness to invest in a Cy Young-caliber pitcher.

For his age and projected impact, expect Yamamoto's contract to be for nine years and over $225 million. The Yankees seem to be on a mission this offseason to erase the memories of a forgotten 2023 campaign, and trading for Soto and signing Yamamoto would do just that.